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国投证券策略首席林荣雄:年内A/H股轮动上涨,港股科技会跟上来
第一财经· 2025-08-22 10:25
Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3800-point mark, indicating potential for further growth if supported by fundamental improvements [6][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bull market is primarily driven by liquidity, with banks playing a crucial role in the first half of the year, transitioning to a broader market participation in the second half [6][7]. - There is a notable shift in risk appetite across various investor types, including public funds, foreign capital, and retail investors, contributing to a synchronized inflow of funds [6][8]. - The market is expected to see a rotation between A-shares and H-shares, with Hong Kong technology stocks likely to experience a rebound [11]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The third quarter is critical for the performance of the ChiNext Index and technology sectors based on industrial logic, which are seen as key indicators for market direction [7][11]. - The market is undergoing a process of eliminating undervalued stocks as new capital flows in, indicating a structural change in the bull market compared to previous cycles [7][8]. Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - Potential risks include uncertainties in the U.S. economy, which could impact global equity markets and the fundamental logic of the Chinese market [8][9]. - Traditional consumer sectors may lag behind in performance, but there is potential for a rotation and rebound as liquidity expands [10][11].
鲍威尔讲话将上演哪种剧本?一文读懂三大情景下的市场风暴
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-22 09:45
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于今晚在杰克逊霍尔发表备受期待的讲话,市场将终于获知美联储对利率 政策的最新思路。 投资者目前几乎已确定9月降息,并密切关注鲍威尔对年底前政策路径的表态。隔夜市场对大型零售商 财报和美联储7月会议纪要反应平淡,反映出降息预期已成为当前市场焦点。 面对劳动力市场疲软但GDP表现良好、消费者通胀相对可控但生产者通胀上升的复杂经济环境,鲍威尔 的讲话全球瞩目。市场预期年底前可能有两次降息(可能性47%),任何偏离预期的表态都可能引发市场 波动。 值得注意的是,尽管更多降息整体上是积极的,但可能导致股市内部轮动。随着资本获取更容易,盈利 修正预期增强,目前领涨市场的大型科技股可能失去青睐。本周早些时候,科技股为主的纳斯达克100 指数已经出现了相对更大的跌幅。 情景一:鹰派程度超预期 若鲍威尔暗示的降息路径比市场预期更为保守,美股可能面临回调压力。分析认为,目前市场接近历史 高点,估值已基本反映完美前景,这使其对降息预期的任何重新校准都极为敏感。 投资者看重低资金成本对企业未来盈利增长的提振作用,这历来是美股上涨的主要驱动力。如果企业获 得资本的难度高于预期,投资者可能减少持仓,引发市场回落 ...
重磅报告|智启新章:2025金融业大模型应用报告正式发布(附下载)
腾讯研究院· 2025-08-22 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the report is that the key to AI application in finance is not to engage in a technology race for the sake of AI, but to return to the essence of technology serving business, using ROI as a benchmark to calibrate application paradigms and optimize implementation paths [1][4]. Group 1: Current State of AI in Finance - A productivity revolution driven by large models is quietly occurring in leading financial institutions, indicating a paradigm shift in the industry [1]. - By 2025, it is anticipated that the financial industry will deeply integrate AI and realize the benefits of large model technologies [1]. Group 2: Transformative Practices - A leading bank has reduced complex credit approval report analysis from hours or days to just 3 minutes, with accuracy improved by over 15% [3]. - A top brokerage firm has implemented AI agents to monitor over 5,000 listed companies 24/7, significantly enhancing research coverage and response speed [3]. - An overseas top investment bank has deployed hundreds of AI programmers, with plans to increase this number to thousands, aiming to boost engineer productivity by three to four times [3]. Group 3: Strategic Framework - The report aims to provide a strategic compass that is both forward-looking and actionable, emphasizing the importance of understanding opportunities and challenges, making proactive layouts, and building systematic capabilities [4][8]. - The financial industry is seen as the core battlefield for the comprehensive reconstruction driven by AI, where technology and human wisdom will collaborate to explore the essence of financial services [6][8]. Group 4: Trends and Challenges - The report identifies six core trends driving industry evolution, aiming to provide a strategic roadmap for financial decision-makers and innovators [9]. - The evolution of large models is characterized by a shift from capability exploration to efficiency revolution, with a focus on high-value data rather than just large-scale data [11]. - Financial institutions are moving from experimental phases to large-scale deployment of AI applications, with banks leading the way [12]. Group 5: Implementation Challenges - The implementation of large models in finance reflects the deepening contradictions of digital transformation, requiring institutions to balance fragmented construction, resource allocation, and compliance with safety [14][15]. - Key challenges include data fragmentation, unclear strategic planning and ROI, low tolerance for error in technology adaptation, and lagging organizational talent upgrades [15]. Group 6: Future Outlook - AI is driving financial services towards unprecedented levels of inclusivity, intelligence, and personalization, redefining operational and management models [16]. - The integration of AI with human expertise is expected to accelerate the demand for innovative financial talent, with high-quality private data becoming a core competitive advantage for institutions [16].
港股通科技ETF嘉实(520670)上涨3.02%,上市以来连续“吸金”超8400万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 06:18
流动性方面,港股通科技ETF嘉实盘中换手20.96%,成交7065.44万元,市场交投活跃。拉长时间看,截至8月21日,港股通科技ETF嘉实近1年日均成交 6475.89万元。 截至2025年8月22日 13:34,港股通科技ETF嘉实(520670)上涨3.02%;成分股方面,华虹半导体涨超11%,中兴通讯涨超10%,黑芝麻智能、中芯国际等跟 涨。 港股通科技ETF嘉实紧密跟踪恒生港股通科技主题指数,恒生港股通科技主题指数(「HSSCITI」)旨在反映能通过港股通买卖,业务与科技主题相关的香 港上市公司之表现。 伴随着龙头中报业绩的验证、美联储降息预期的强化、Al商业化进程的加速,市场对于港股科技板块的信心逐步回归,资金开始提前蓄力伏击,关注其补涨 潜力。国投证券表示,从60日滚动收益率差值来看,历史上创业板指和恒生科技两者存在明确交替轮动关系,当创业板指涨幅领先恒生科技20pct时,多数 意味着恒生科技指数相对将迎来补涨,目前两者收益率差值已经来到18pct。 申万宏源证券认为,港股指数层面的阶段性跑输只是对前期上涨较快的阶段性盘整,而伴随着中报季业绩披露的逐渐展开,此前业绩预期较低的板块有望重 新获得市 ...
葛卫东家族斥资超3亿,现身会稽山前十大股东
8月21日晚间,会稽山发布了2025年半年报,同时也披露了私募大佬葛卫东的最新动向。 除了葛卫东的新进,会稽山其他股东的持股情况也有所变化。例如,刚刚布局会稽山不到一年的阿布达 比投资局,退出了十大股东名单。数据显示,今年一季度末,阿布达比投资局还持有会稽山540万股, 但在二季度末其持股数已经低于386.1万股。 据介绍,会稽山主要从事黄酒的生产、销售和研发等业务,拥有"会稽山、兰亭、西塘"等多个品牌。 从二级市场上看,在黄酒板块整体上行的背景下,会稽山股价上半年涨势喜人。其中,在第二季度中, 其股价累计涨幅超90%,还在5月底时创下26.78元/股的历史新高。截止22日发稿,会稽山股价最新报 21.19元/股,公司市值为101.6亿元。 不过,会稽山当前的业绩表现并不出色。今年上半年,会稽山实现营业收入8.17亿元,同比增长11%; 实现净利润9388万元,同比增长仅3.4%。从单季度来看,从单季度来看,会稽山二季度营收为3.36亿 元;净利润为13.39万元,扣非净利润亏损324.5万元。 会稽山表示,上半年营收增长利润微增。营收增长主要得益于公司持续优化产品结构和拓展市场渠道, 尤其是在年轻化和高端化 ...
国新证券每日晨报-20250822
Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on August 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3771.1 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47%, and the total trading volume of the A-share market reached 24603 billion yuan, slightly up from the previous day [1][4][8] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 18 sectors saw gains, with the most significant increases in comprehensive finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemicals. Conversely, machinery, electric equipment and new energy, and defense industries experienced notable declines [1][4][8] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the S&P 500 down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies fell by 0.43%, with Tesla and Facebook both dropping over 1% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to standardize the construction and operation of existing Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects [10][11] - In July, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase [13][14] - A new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan will be introduced, focusing on supporting emerging industries and infrastructure [16] - Over 60% of the data used for training AI models in China is now in Chinese, with some models reaching 80% [17] - A joint statement from the EU and the U.S. revealed that key demands were not met in their recent trade agreement [18][19] - Significant global economic data was released, indicating a recovery in manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone [21]
股指期货将偏强震荡,白银、铜、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、天然橡胶期货将偏强震荡,豆粕期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:51
2025 年 8 月 22 日 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析,预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下: 股指期货将偏强震荡:IF2509 阻力位 4300 和 4330 点,支撑位 4260 和 4246 点;IH2509 阻力位 2880 和 2900 点,支撑位 2860 和 2850 点;IC2509 阻力位 6750 和 6800 点,支撑位 6601 和 6568 点;IM2509 阻力位 7350 和 7400 点,支撑位 7156 和 7087 点。 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、天然 橡胶期货将偏强震荡 豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号:Z0000372 邮箱:taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不 便,敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者,请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介,亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险,不 ...
8.22犀牛财经早报:私募月度备案规模年内首次破千亿元 个人养老金基金数量已超300只
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 01:44
171家上市公司中期拟合计派现超1200亿元 A股上市公司半年报正密集披露,现金分红成为投资者关注的焦点之一。Wind资讯数据显示,截至8月 21日,A股上市公司中共有171家公司(包括13家已落地实施的企业)披露2025年半年度分红预案,涉 及非银金融、医药生物、计算机、汽车、教育、通信等行业,拟总派发1245.84亿元。 (证券日报) 私募月度备案规模年内首次破千亿元 中基协披露,7月新备案私募基金数量为1689只,新备案规模达1074.27亿元,较6月的500.57亿元增长 114.6%,这是今年私募基金月度备案规模首次突破1000亿元。从分类来看,私募证券投资基金尤其是 股票策略产品,是发行市场的"主力军"。(上证报) 个人养老金基金数量已超300只 自从去年12月首批85只权益类指数基金纳入个人养老金产品名录以来,指数基金的选项不断增加。国家 社会保险公共服务平台数据显示,在售个人养老金基金数量已经达到303只,且今年下半年以来新增的 产品主要为指数增强型基金。业内人士认为,扩容旨在丰富个人养老产品的矩阵,增加权益类资产以满 足风险偏好较高的投资需求。同时,这也有助于引导长期资金稳步入市,优化市场结 ...
中泰国际每日晨讯-20250822
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 61 points or 0.2%, closing at 25,104 points, with narrow fluctuations around 25,200 points for five consecutive trading days[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.8%, ending at 5,498 points, with total market turnover dropping to HKD 239.5 billion[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 7.46 billion, indicating continued domestic capital support[1] Sector Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector rebounded, with leading companies like Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) and CanSino Biologics (9926 HK) rising by 4.9% and 3.3% respectively[1] - Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) reported a 136.8% increase in mid-term net profit, leading to an 11.4% surge in its stock price, reaching a three-year high[1] - The telecommunications, engineering machinery, and certain power generation stocks showed upward movement, while major tech stocks like Alibaba (9988 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK) declined[1] Automotive Sector Insights - Li Auto (9863 HK) saw a significant 16% increase over the past month, but dropped 4.7% after rumors of a potential acquisition by FAW Group were denied[2] - Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) rose by 20% in the past week, attributed to the production launch of its Brazilian factory and a positive market outlook for fuel vehicles[2] - NIO (9866 HK) experienced a 15% increase in stock price ahead of the launch of its new ES8 model[2] Healthcare Sector Developments - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rebounded by 2.3%, with most major companies seeing stock price increases[3] - Rongchang Biologics (9995 HK) signed a deal with Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) worth a total of HKD 1.395 billion, including a prepayment of HKD 250 million[3] - The demand for the RC28-E injection, targeting age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema, is expected to be strong due to its effectiveness[3] Energy Sector Analysis - China Resources Power (836 HK) fell by 5.9% after reporting a 15.9% year-on-year decline in net profit to HKD 7.87 billion for the first half of FY25[4] - The renewable energy segment showed a slight increase in core earnings, while thermal power core earnings decreased by 2.7% to HKD 2.64 billion[4] Coal Industry Forecast - Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) reported a 61.2% drop in net profit for the first half of FY25, with revenues down 14.8% to AUD 268 million[5][6] - The average coal price fell by 15.3% to AUD 149 per ton, but a rebound is expected in the second half due to seasonal demand[6] - The company maintains its FY25 production guidance of 35-39 million tons of coal[7] Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) reported a 14.3% increase in revenue to RMB 7.43 billion for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 15.0% to RMB 3.14 billion[11] - The company’s innovative drugs are expected to drive rapid revenue growth, with significant clinical advancements reported[12][13] - Target price for Hansoh Pharmaceutical has been raised to HKD 42.75, maintaining an "overweight" rating[15]
标普,“五连阴”!中国资产,大爆发!
中国基金报· 2025-08-22 00:08
美东时间8月21日周四,美国三大股指收跌,标普500指数连续第五个交易日下滑。美国上周失业救济申请人数超预期,费城制造业产出疲 软。沃尔玛大跌4.5%,令道指承压。 标普指数"五连阴" 截至收盘,道指跌0.34%,报44785.5点;标普500指数跌0.4%,报6370.17点,录得五连跌;纳指跌0.34%,报21100.31点。 | 美股指数 △ | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | | 纳斯达克 | | 标普500 | | | 44785.50 | | 21100.31 | | 6370.17 | | | -152.81 | -0.34% | -72.55 | -0.34% | -25.61 | -0.40% | 经济数据方面, 美国上周初 申 请失业金人数 为 23.5万人,为近三个月来最大增幅,预期 为 22.5万人 。 美国至8月9日当周续 申 请失 业金人数 为 197.2万人,创2021年11月以来最高,预期 为 196万人,前值 为 195.3万人。 费城联储8月制造业指数意外收缩至-0.3,较上月的15.9显著下降 ...