Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Zijin Mining's Q1 2025 report shows a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 58.17% [3] - The company plans to produce 85 tons of gold in 2025, representing a 17% increase year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and increased production [3] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 413.6 billion, 465.6 billion, and 518.8 billion respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Zijin Mining achieved an operating revenue of 789.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 101.67 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.39% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 32.16% [3] - The company’s copper production increased by 9.49% year-on-year to 287,600 tons, while gold production rose by 13.45% to 19.07 tons in Q1 2025 [4] Price and Cost Analysis - The average selling price for copper in Q1 2025 increased by 3.27% year-on-year and 7.33% quarter-on-quarter, while the average selling price for gold rose by 40.07% year-on-year and 11.98% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The sales cost for copper increased by 7.57% year-on-year, and for gold, it rose by 12.62% year-on-year, influenced by declining ore grades and increased stripping ratios [4] Share Buyback Plan - On April 8, 2025, Zijin Mining announced a share buyback plan with a total fund of 600 million to 1 billion, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or equity incentive plans [5] - As of April 10, 2025, the company had repurchased 64 million shares, accounting for 0.24% of total shares, demonstrating confidence in future growth [5] Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 374.807 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4% [6] - The expected diluted EPS for 2025 is 1.56, with a P/E ratio of 11.3 [6] - The gross margin is projected to be 20.5% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.0% [6]

资料显示，该指数系列样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月第二个星期五的 下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个 定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对该指数系列样本进行临时调整。当样本退市 时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处 理。当中证沪港深互联互通综合指数和中证沪港深500指数样本发生变动时，将进行相应调整。 从指数持仓来看，中证沪港深互联互通上游指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（8.21%）、中国海洋石油 （7.92%）、中国神华（3.64%）、中国石油股份（3.06%）、中国神华（2.85%）、紫金矿业 （2.72%）、中国石油化工股份（2.55%）、中国石油（2.49%）、中国石化（2.36%）、陕西煤业 （2.15%）。 从中证沪港深互联互通上游指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比50.31%、香港证券交易所 占比27.39%、深圳证券交易所占比22.29%。 从中证沪港深互联互通上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比22.99%、工业金属占比 18.8 ...

有色金属/工业金属 洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 一季度铜钴产量同比提升，积极落实高质量发展 2025 年 04 月 11 日 相关研究报告 《矿山板块表现稳健，归母净利同比 高 增 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.31 《铜钴产量同比高增，业绩创历史新 高—公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.26 《国内有色金属矿业巨头，铜钴项目 放量助成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.5.27 温佳贝（分析师） 冯伟珉（联系人） wenjiabei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040009 证书编号：S0790124070040 fengweimin@kysec.cn 公司发布 2025 年一季度产量报告，铜钴产量同比提升 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 6.58 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 9.87/5.91 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,414.65 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,155.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 214.99 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 175.66 | ...

有色金属/工业金属 洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 一季度铜钴产量同比提升，积极落实高质量发展 2025 年 04 月 11 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 6.58 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 9.87/5.91 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,414.65 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,155.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 214.99 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 175.66 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 77.8 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 洛阳钼业 沪深300 相关研究报告 《矿山板块表现稳健，归母净利同比 高 增 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.31 《铜钴产量同比高增，业绩创历史新 高—公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.26 《国内有色金属矿业巨头，铜钴项目 放量助成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.5.27 温佳贝（分析师） 冯伟珉（联系人） wenjiabei@ky ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 08 年 月 日 中国铝业（601600.SH） 铝产品"量价齐升"，25Q1 利润同比大幅增长 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 7 日披露 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告，预计 实现利润总额 62-67 亿元，同比增加 30%-40%；预计实现归母净利 34- 36 亿元，同比增加 53%-63%，环比增加 0.5%-6.4%，利润增加主要系 公司全方位极致降本增效及主要产品同比增产所致。 25Q1 青海 50 万吨电解铝项目爬产，电解铝增量成为利润贡献点。氧化 铝：1）价，根据 SMM 统计，25Q1 氧化铝均价 3833 元/吨，同比增长 15.2%，环比减少 28.1%。2）量，广西华昇二期 200 万吨氧化铝项目预 计于 2025 年上半年投产，全部投产后，公司氧化铝年产能为 2426 万吨， 权益产能 1967 万吨。电解铝：1）价，根据 SMM 统计，25Q1 电解铝均价 2.04 万元/吨，同比增长 7.3%，环比减少 0.5%。2）量，内蒙古华云三期 42 万吨电解铝项目及青海分公司 50 万吨电解铝项目中分别于 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit total of 62-67 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30%-40%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34-36 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 53%-63% year-on-year [1] - The increase in profits is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in the production of key products [1] - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantages across the entire industry chain through strategic initiatives, including market analysis, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancement [3] Summary by Sections Production and Pricing - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina was 3,833 yuan/ton, up 15.2% year-on-year but down 28.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is ramping up production at its new 50,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [2] Strategic Goals - The company is committed to achieving its strategic goal of becoming a world-class enterprise by enhancing operational efficiency, optimizing industrial layout, promoting technological innovation, and improving management structures [3] - The focus includes expanding into small metal industries such as gallium, lithium, and magnesium, and advancing towards digital and automated operations [3] Market Outlook - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing its capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to recover, potentially driving aluminum prices higher [4] - The report suggests cautious assumptions for the average prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina from 2025 to 2027, forecasting net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for those years, respectively [4] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2025 to 222.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% [5] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including earnings per share (EPS) estimates and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries [15] - Industrial metals prices have sharply retreated due to heightened market concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn following unexpected tariff policies [1][25] - The report expresses a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to liquidity shocks [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points [15] - Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment saw a notable drop of 4.36%, while the precious metals sector decreased by 1.24% [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31% [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90% [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94% [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05% [45][48] - The report highlights that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, intensifying market fears regarding economic downturns and boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.1% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to falling prices and volumes of coal products, as well as rising prices of aluminum's main raw material, alumina [1][2]. - The company plans to maintain a high level of dividends, distributing 8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.799 billion yuan, which is consistent with the previous year [4]. - The report anticipates improved profit margins in the coming years due to fluctuations in aluminum prices and a decrease in alumina prices, projecting net profits of 5.57 billion yuan, 6.76 billion yuan, and 7.11 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an aluminum production of 1.6285 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with sales of 1.6289 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year. The average selling price of aluminum was 15,956 yuan per ton, down 3.6% year-on-year [2]. - The coal production and sales in 2024 were 6.739 million tons and 6.7013 million tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 6.0% and 7.5% year-on-year. The average selling price of coal was 1,019 yuan per ton, down 7.8% year-on-year [3]. - The company reported an investment income of 666.5 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 98.5% year-on-year, primarily due to the transfer of a 51% stake in Shenhuo Power [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 38.37 billion yuan in 2024 to 41.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.33% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound to 5.57 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 29.31% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 7.41 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5].

Group 1 - GIC Private Limited reduced its stake in Zijin Mining by 62 million shares in Q1, realizing approximately HKD 1 billion based on an average transaction price of HKD 16.1 per share [1] - As of June 30, 2024, GIC remains the third-largest shareholder of Zijin Mining's H shares, holding 428 million shares, which represents 1.61% of the total issued shares [2] - The reduction in GIC's holdings has raised market speculation, especially against the backdrop of rising gold prices [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining has benefited from a significant increase in gold prices, with its A-share price rising over 20% in both 2023 and 2024 [3] - Institutional investors, including public funds and private equity, have been reducing their holdings in Zijin Mining, with public funds holding 16.33% as of the end of 2024, down by over 1 percentage point [3] - Three ETFs collectively realized over HKD 1.1 billion from their holdings in Zijin Mining during the fourth quarter [3] Group 3 - The current A-share price-to-earnings ratio of Zijin Mining is 14.51, which is close to its three-year average of 15.85, indicating a 60% premium over its three-year low of around 9 times [5] - The industrial metal sector index has seen a decline of 4.69% from March 26 to April 2, with Zijin Mining's A and H shares both dropping over 4.5% during the same period [5]