Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yunnan Copper Industry (000878) reported a total of 260,893 shareholders as of January 30, 2026 [1]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行险守 4000 点，资源股全线下挫、白酒表现活跃 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260202 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。 食品饮料、银行、电新、家电、电力公用事业行业表现较好，有色金属、钢 铁、煤炭、石油石化、基础化工行业表现较差。特高压、白酒、光纤、培育 钻石、配网等概念表现较好，黄金精选、铅锌矿、黄金珠宝、存储器、磷化 工等概念表现较差。 市场资金流向：截至 20260130 两融余额为 27153 亿元，其中融资余额 26987 亿元，融券余额 166 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.4%。 折溢价：20260130 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是 G60 创新 ETF 申万菱信，ETF 折价较多的是现金流 500ETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 23 亿元，20260130 当日大宗交易成交金额为 16 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.93%，当日折价 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/03 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/27 -380 4809 225937 144908 -698.50 290.46 22.0 22.0 -93.80 172350 45075 2026/01/28 -350 5489 225937 148038 -67.63 4.13 20.0 20.0 -101.09 173925 44700 2026/01/29 -350 6364 225937 151628 1825.50 401.68 23.0 23.0 -93.76 176075 43600 2026/01/30 -325 6505 233004 156851 593.62 -291.04 27.0 28.0 -89.88 174975 41800 2026/02/02 -300 5491 233004 158527 -731.31 344.73 39.0 45.0 -59.17 174 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数继续回升，贵金属有色下探，昨日伦铜 3M 收盘跌 1.3%至 12900 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收 至 100820 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 300 至 174675 吨，亚洲库存减少而欧美库存增加，注销仓单比例 下滑，Cash ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/2/2 | 李先飞 | 王蓉 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2026/1/5 | 2026/2/2 | 2026/1/30 | 2026/1/26 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | -152.82 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: High nickel prices stimulate production, but demand is weak. The price is expected to fall and then fluctuate widely, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan [2]. - Stainless steel: Cost support is strengthened, but demand and inventory digestion are insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The regulatory environment is strengthened, and the price is supported. It may fall in the short - term, with the main reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan [8]. - Copper: In the long - term, the copper price bottom is expected to rise. In the short - term, it may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to CL premium changes, with the main support range of 101,500 - 103,000 yuan [9]. - Zinc: The zinc price is supported by tight mines. Although there is negative feedback on the demand side, the fundamentals are good, and attention should be paid to zinc mine TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main support range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan [13]. - Tin: Short - term prices fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious. In the medium - to - long - term, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [14]. - Aluminum alloy: It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to waste aluminum circulation, import window changes, and pre - holiday downstream inventory [15]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait for price stability and volatility decline to go long, and pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan [16]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to oscillate, with the main price range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to production reduction and demand changes [17]. - Polysilicon: In February, supply and demand are weak. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to order recovery and capacity regulation. The price may be supported at 45,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 160,500 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 104,410 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 25,790 yuan/ton, up 1.98% [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 428,650 yuan/ton, down 2.27% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,350 yuan/ton, down 0.81% [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,660 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: East China SI4210 industrial silicon price is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 51,300 yuan/kg, down 2.29% [18]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 is - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 is - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 is - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 is - 1000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: 2602 - 2603 is - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 is 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 1230 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in January is 31,400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month [2]. - **Stainless steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in January is 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production in December is 99,200 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month [8]. - **Copper**: Electrolytic copper production in January is 117.93 million tons, up 0.10% month - on - month [9]. - **Zinc**: Refined zinc production in January is 56.06 million tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: SMM refined tin production in December is 15,950 tons, down 0.06% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in December is 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month [15]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina production in January is 738.56 million tons, down 1.78% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: National industrial silicon production in January is 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon production in January is 10.08 million tons, down 12.73% [18].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Baiyin Nonferrous Metals has hit the daily limit down, with a price of 12.3 yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.02% and a total market capitalization of 91.079 billion yuan [1] - The company reported a significant loss in its 2025 financial forecast, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between -675 million and -450 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1] - The company has also made a large provision for expected liabilities amounting to 314 million yuan, further indicating poor operational performance and declining profitability [1] Group 2 - There was a notable outflow of funds, with the company being included in the "Dragon and Tiger List" on January 29, 2026, showing a total trading volume of 9.406 billion yuan, with net selling by institutional investors amounting to 2.318 billion yuan [1] - The high valuation risk is highlighted by the company's static price-to-earnings (PE) ratio reaching as high as 1392 times, significantly exceeding the industry average, raising concerns about the stock's valuation amidst the reported losses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints Electrolytic Aluminum - In the short - term, due to the sharp drop in precious metals and the seasonal off - season of Spring Festival consumption, the futures price is expected to adjust at a high level. In the long - term, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts remains unchanged, supply constraints exist in the long - term, and the aluminum demand in new fields like energy storage, data centers, and new energy vehicles is growing explosively, so the upward trend of aluminum price remains optimistic [3][8] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, maintaining a high - level shock. The supply - side production capacity decreases slightly, the import window is closed, and the supply pressure is not large. The profit has slightly recovered, and enterprises' willingness to ship has increased. The demand side continues to weaken [3][9] 3. Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/30 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3173.5 | 3135.5 | - 38.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 24395 | 24695 | 300.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 3.75 | - 26.66 | - 22.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 507275 | 495725 | - 11550.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 141152 | 145071 | 3919.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 23816 | 24336 | 520.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 240 | - 70.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23858 | 24318 | 460.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 42 | 18 | 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 74.3 | 78.2 | 3.9 | tons | | Electrolytic Aluminum Theoretical Average Cost | 15883.79 | 15866.81 | - 17.0 | yuan/ton | | Electrolytic Aluminum Weekly Average Profit | 7932.21 | 8469.19 | 537.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 24000 | 24350 | 350.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23500 | 23700 | 200.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2919 | 3174 | 255.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3725 | 4088 | 363.0 | yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 67892 | 68206 | 314.0 | tons | [4] Market Review Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 24336 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot is 24318 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from last week. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the US government may face a partial shutdown, US durable goods orders increased significantly in November 2025, the consumer confidence index in January decreased, and the trade deficit in November 2025 increased significantly. Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate dropped to 59.4%, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6] Cast Aluminum - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose to 58.9%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 314 tons [7] Market Outlook Electrolytic Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a rise in the US dollar index, the position of SHFE aluminum fluctuated. The supply of new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia increased slowly, the aluminum water ratio decreased, the aluminum processing operating rate dropped significantly, and the inventory increased. In the short - term, the price is expected to adjust at a high level, and in the long - term, the upward trend remains [8] Cast Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased, the demand weakened, some enterprises stopped production in advance for the Spring Festival, the price of cast aluminum increased rapidly, the inventory of the exchange increased. The supply pressure is not large, the profit has slightly recovered, and the demand continues to weaken, maintaining a high - level shock [9] Industry News - Baitong Energy plans to invest no more than $40 million in Angola to set up a subsidiary for electrolytic aluminum processing [10][11] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest about $437 million in Indonesia to build a 250,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project [14] - Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, with an expected annual output of 750,000 tons [14] - The exchange added two registered aluminum ingot brands with a total production capacity of 1 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, etc., which show the historical data and trends of relevant indicators [13][16][18]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Guangxi Critical Metals Research Institute aims to address key technological challenges in the critical metals sector and promote the high-end, intelligent, green, large-scale, and park-based development of Guangxi's critical metals industry [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - Guangxi is a significant resource-rich area for critical metals in China, with the non-ferrous metals industry projected to reach a value of 393.7 billion yuan by 2024, making it the largest industrial sector in the region [2] - The non-ferrous metals industry faces challenges of being "large but not strong" and "coarse but not refined," prompting the need for innovation and development [2] Group 2: Research Institute Objectives - The Guangxi Critical Metals Research Institute will focus on five key areas: efficient resource exploration and green mining, low-carbon smelting technology, high-purity metal and compound preparation, high-end materials and device development, and resource recycling and pollution prevention [3] - The institute aims to create a comprehensive innovation ecosystem that promotes the overall upgrade of the industry from resource extraction to product development [3] Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The institute will serve as a platform for precise and efficient matching of technological achievements with enterprise needs, facilitating collaboration between research teams and companies [4] - A regular communication mechanism will be established to ensure that research efforts are aligned with real industry challenges, with over 60 dual-employed researchers already engaged in diagnostics across more than 50 key enterprises in Guangxi [5] Group 4: Talent Development and Future Goals - The institute plans to attract high-level talent through competitive compensation, high-quality platform construction, and supportive policies, aiming to cultivate over 100 high-level talents and establish more than 10 technology-based enterprises by 2030 [3][5] - By 2030, the institute aims to overcome more than 50 key technologies and support an additional industrial output value of over 80 billion yuan, positioning Guangxi as a national hub for critical metals innovation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral, with a price range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, tin prices may still have a certain downward risk due to the overall influence of the non - ferrous sector, and tin prices are generally highly elastic. However, the tight fundamental situation has not significantly reversed. If the sharp decline further expands the safety margin, tin prices may have a repair and rebound market. There are significant differences in short - term unilateral views, and it is recommended to use option tools for protection [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 0 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums remain flat [10][15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure maintains a C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 165 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 58 tons. LME inventory increased, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 3.74% [27][32] 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds precipitated in Shanghai tin are 391,560 million yuan, and the funds have flowed out in the past 10 days [36] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the position decreased. The trading volume and position of LME tin increased [39][45] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined [51] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In December 2025, imports were 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level rebounded [55][57] 3.2.2 Smelting - In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.34%, a slight decline from last week [62][64] 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 10,538 yuan/ton [74] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [82] 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in December dropped to 72.7%. The output and sales of major tinplate enterprises in October increased slightly [84] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption rebounded month - on - month, while the automobile consumption declined month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [91][93][99]