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农业农村部:巩固肉牛养殖的向好态势 推动奶牛养殖尽早迎来“拐点”
news flash· 2025-07-17 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to implement relief measures effectively, focusing on extending the industrial chain, enhancing added value, and increasing competitiveness in the beef cattle farming sector, while also striving to help the dairy cattle farming industry reach a turning point soon [1] Group 1 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will continue to promote various relief measures [1] - There is an emphasis on extending the industrial chain and enhancing added value in the beef cattle farming sector [1] - The goal is to strengthen the competitiveness of the beef cattle farming industry [1] Group 2 - The Ministry is also focused on helping the dairy cattle farming industry to reach a turning point as soon as possible [1]
农业品种多震荡运行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:37
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.
养殖ETF(159865)昨日净流入超0.9亿,能繁增速放缓或提振猪价
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-15 02:48
Group 1 - The swine sector is experiencing a slowdown in the growth rate of breeding stock, with the industry capacity still showing slight inertia growth [1] - The planting sector emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in food security, aiming to enhance yield through the integration of quality land, seeds, opportunities, and methods, with the commercialization of genetically modified corn expected to accelerate [1] - The pet sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands through product innovation and refined marketing, while export business continues to grow rapidly [1] Group 2 - The animal health sector faces intense competition in traditional poultry vaccines, while the pet health market is expected to expand continuously due to aging trends [1] - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Securities Livestock Index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., and selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The index constituents cover upstream and downstream enterprises in the livestock industry chain, effectively representing the overall development of the livestock sector [1]
金新农: 关于公司为广州金农现代农业有限公司提供担保的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-14 16:24
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Jinxinnong Technology Co., Ltd., is providing a guarantee of up to 40 million yuan for its subsidiary, Guangzhou Jinnong Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd., to support its business development and procurement of feed from Yinglian Feed (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. The guarantee is set to be effective until May 30, 2032, and can be used on a rolling basis [1][5]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The total guarantee amount after this transaction will be 304 million yuan, which represents 200.73% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1][7]. - As of June 30, 2025, the actual external guarantee balance of the company and its subsidiaries is 160.91 million yuan, accounting for 106.25% of the most recent audited net assets [1][7]. - The guarantee covers 85.7143% of the principal, interest, penalties, and other costs related to the feed supply agreement [5][6]. Group 2: Subsidiary Information - Guangzhou Jinnong Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd. was established on March 3, 2020, with a registered capital of 47.38 million yuan [3][4]. - The company is primarily engaged in livestock breeding, feed production, and agricultural services [3][4]. - The total assets of Guangzhou Jinnong are reported at 120.96 million yuan, with total liabilities of 89.41 million yuan, resulting in net assets of 31.54 million yuan [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Guangzhou Jinnong reported a revenue of 10.85 million yuan and a net loss of 1.88 million yuan [5]. - The company has no external guarantees prior to this transaction, and its assets have been used as collateral for bank loans [5][6]. Group 4: Board Opinion - The board believes that the guarantee will facilitate the business expansion of Guangzhou Jinnong, stabilize the supply chain, and reduce costs, aligning with the overall interests of the company [6].
基金双周报:ETF市场跟踪报告-20250714
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-14 05:33
ETF Market Overview - The overall performance of ETF products has been good in the past two weeks, with the largest increase seen in the ChiNext Index ETF and the pharmaceutical industry ETF [4][12] - Major broad-based ETFs such as the Science and Technology 50, CSI 2000, and CSI 800 saw net inflows, while the CSI A500 ETF experienced the largest net outflow [4][12] - After significant outflows at the beginning of the year, technology ETFs have shifted to net inflows since March, with a notable acceleration in inflow speed in the last two weeks [4][20] ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of July 11, 17 new ETFs were launched in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 31.823 billion units, including 7 stock ETFs and 10 pure bond ETFs [27] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs rising by 132.25%, 111.16%, 29.00%, 14.05%, and 2.70% respectively [27] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking animation and gaming performed best, while overseas technology ETFs underperformed compared to domestic ones [33] - For dividend theme ETFs, those tracking the CSI Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend had the highest return in the past two weeks, with significant net inflows for products tracking low-volatility dividend indices [4][33] - In the pharmaceutical theme ETFs, products tracking innovative drug indices showed strong performance, with net inflows for those tracking Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug indices [4][33] Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of July 11, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 762.281 billion yuan, while E Fund's ETF management scale has expanded by over 290 billion yuan compared to one year ago [28]
生猪板块持续获正向催化,养殖ETF(516760) 冲击5连涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 02:47
Group 1 - The livestock ETF (516760) has risen by 0.46%, marking a five-day consecutive increase, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Brother Technology (002562) up 10.02%, Xinghuo Technology (600866) up 4.12%, and others [1] - Listed pig companies have begun releasing their 2025 semi-annual performance forecasts, indicating a continued high profit growth in Q2 2025. For instance, Muyuan Foods expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2-10.7 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [1] - In Q2 2025, Muyuan Foods anticipates a net profit of 5.7-6.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.95% to 93.53%, with a total of 24.252 million pigs sold, an increase of 48.08% [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 13.34 times, which is at a historical low, being in the 11.27% percentile over the past three years, indicating a valuation lower than 88.73% of the time in the last three years [2] - The current valuation of the sector remains low, providing a high margin of safety, suggesting that investors should actively consider the livestock ETF (516760.SH) [2]
养殖ETF(516760)多空胶着,“反内卷”推动生猪产业淘汰落后产能
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 03:01
Group 1 - The central theme of the news highlights the mixed performance of the livestock breeding index and the impact of government policies on the industry, particularly focusing on the elimination of outdated production capacity and the enhancement of product quality [1][3] - As of July 4, the livestock ETF has seen a net value increase of 12.16% over the past six months, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need for regulated competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacities, which is expected to stabilize market prices and promote sustainable development in the pig farming industry [1][3] Group 2 - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 65.27% of the index, with major players including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group [3] - The performance of the top ten stocks shows a mixed trend, with some stocks like Haida Group and Wens Foodstuff experiencing slight declines, while others like Shengnong Development and Biological Shares showed positive growth [5]
四川畜牧产业总产值突破7300亿元
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 02:59
Core Insights - Sichuan's livestock industry has surpassed a total output value of 730 billion yuan, with a goal to exceed 1 trillion yuan within 3 to 5 years by focusing on five key sectors: pigs, poultry, cattle, sheep, and rabbits [1][2] - The industry faces challenges such as a lack of leading enterprises, incomplete deep processing chains, and a need for competitive deep processing products, which are critical for reaching the trillion-yuan target [1] - Recent developments include the release of 11 group standards aimed at improving livestock health, disease prevention, and feed precision, which are expected to support the standardization and modernization of the industry [2] Group 1: Industry Overview - Sichuan is a major player in the livestock sector, consistently ranking high in the production of pigs, cattle, poultry, and rabbits [1] - The current output value of the livestock industry in Sichuan is the largest among agricultural sectors in the province, having surpassed 730 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The industry is constrained by a limited number of leading enterprises and a lack of deep processing capabilities, with deep processing of pork currently accounting for less than 25% of consumption [1] - There is an urgent need for updated standards in site selection, facility design, biosecurity, and disease management to meet the demands of modern livestock farming [1] Group 3: Recent Developments - The Sichuan Provincial Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Association has introduced new group standards, including the "Immunization Technical Regulations for Sichuan Black Pig," to enhance industry practices [2] - The "Double Cultivation Action" initiative was launched to strengthen and develop key agricultural industries, including livestock, with a focus on building robust industry chains [2]
深圳市金新农科技股份有限公司2025年06月生猪销售简报
Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company sold 112,200 pigs, including 52,300 commercial pigs, 57,800 piglets, and 2,100 breeding pigs, generating sales revenue of 122.40 million yuan, with an average selling price of 14.76 yuan per kilogram for commercial pigs [1]. - From January to June 2025, the total pig sales reached 632,300, comprising 343,600 commercial pigs, 284,900 piglets, and 3,700 breeding pigs, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.57%. However, the total sales revenue for this period was 762.52 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.23% [1]. Data Disclosure - The sales data provided does not include figures from the company's affiliated companies and is unaudited, which may differ from the data disclosed in regular reports. This data serves as a reference for investors [2].
金新农: 2025年06月生猪销售简报
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-04 16:22
Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company reported a sales revenue of 122.40 million yuan from live pig sales, with an average selling price of 14.76 yuan per kilogram [1] - The total number of piglets sold was 284,900, and the number of breeding pigs sold was 3,700, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.57% [1] - The cumulative sales revenue from live pigs amounted to 762.52 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.23% [1] Additional Information - The disclosed sales data only includes the company's livestock breeding business and does not account for other business segments [2] - The sales data is preliminary and unaudited, and may differ from the figures reported in periodic disclosures [1]