2025年，OpenAI估值飙升至5000亿美元，超越SpaceX，成为全球估值最高的独角兽。其背后是一场以算力为核心的「AI军备竞赛」：未来十年将部署 20GW算力，相当于20座核反应堆，投入规模达1万亿美元。那么问题来了，钱从哪里来？ 一图看透全球大模型！新智元十周年钜献，2025 ASI前沿趋势报告37页首发 2024年，OpenAI营收大约为40亿美元，估值约为1570亿美元。 2025年上半年，OpenAI收入43亿美元，全年预测130亿美元，而估值是5000亿美元！ OpenAI的估值超过了马斯克的SpaceX，成为全球估值最高的未上市初创企业！ OpenAI，现在就是硅谷，乃至全球的「摇钱树」！ 不管是美股的热钱，还是全球的资本，都盯着OpenAI的一举一动。 所有连线都表示与OpenAI在资金、算力、托管、芯片或业务上的关系。 连线旁的灰字是关系的性质（投资、托管、数据中心交易、定制芯片等）。 左侧偏资金 + 传统云/算力合同。 右侧偏芯片 + 多云托管 + 竞争对手。 现在，但凡沾上「OpenAI」概念，股价都是一飞冲天。 早一些的比如甲骨文（Oracle）、英伟达、CoreWeave，最近 ...

在国庆长假期间，依然正常交易的海外市场可谓精彩纷呈。美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡并未引发权益 市场恐慌情绪恶化蔓延，美日欧股市走势强劲，贵金属则受益于美联储降息预期加速上升。本周剩余两 个交易日，市场的焦点预计将继续集中在地缘政治因素发酵、美联储政策前景及人工智能行业发展和企 业合作等消息上。 市场表现 美国三大股指在国庆期间迎来多次里程碑，投资者在很大程度上淡化了对政府停摆的担忧，转而将注意 力投向企业动态，人工智能行业热度不减，助推纳指挑战23000点，道指和标普500指数不断刷新年内高 位。 嘉信理财认为，近期美股强势有多重因素。1) 随着9月结束，市场季节性特征转向更偏看涨；2) 有关人 工智能（AI）基础设施建设的新闻持续涌现；OpenAI与AMD已达成协议，OpenAI或可收购这家芯片制 造商10%的股份；3）全期限美国国债收益率走低；4) 距离第三季度（Q3）财报季开启已不足两周， FactSet数据显示，标准普尔500指数成分股公司的每股收益（EPS）同比增速预期为7.9%，2025年全年 增速预期为9.3%。 贵金属闪耀原油震荡 日本股市一度暴力拉升，日经225指数盘中突破48000点，这与新 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's economy is demonstrating robust growth, with the GDP of the top 60 cities reaching 48 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [1][2] - Chengdu is rapidly closing the economic gap with Suzhou, with a current economic output of 12,108.21 billion yuan, just 894 billion yuan behind Suzhou's 13,002.35 billion yuan [1][3] - Nanjing has risen to the tenth position nationally, surpassing the 9,179 billion yuan mark, driven by strong technological innovation [1][14] Economic Trends - The "head tier" cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen remain stable, but emerging cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou are growing faster, indicating potential shifts in future rankings [2][17] - There is a notable "growth divergence" among cities, with 24 cities exceeding the national average growth rate, particularly Xi'an (11.21%), Wenzhou (12.42%), and Shenyang (10.76%) [2][16] - The competition among cities is intensifying, especially within the 5th to 15th ranks, where economic output differences are less than 100 billion yuan, making small changes in industrial layout impactful [2][17] Chengdu's Growth - Chengdu's economic growth is attributed to diversified industrial development and strong innovation, with the high-tech industry seeing a 15% increase in added value [3][5] - The opening of the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway has significantly reduced commuting time, enhancing economic interactions between the two cities [5][16] - The electronic information industry in Chengdu has surpassed one trillion yuan, while the aerospace sector is also expanding rapidly [3][5] Nanjing's Advancement - Nanjing's rise is fueled by its strong technological capabilities, with TSMC's wafer factory producing 500 12-inch wafers per minute and significant advancements in biomedicine [14][16] - The city's transportation infrastructure is improving, with container throughput at Nanjing Port exceeding 3 million TEUs, enhancing its regional influence [14][16] Yantai's Transformation - Yantai leads Shandong with a 7.77% growth rate, driven by the "new and old kinetic energy conversion" strategy, particularly in the chemical and equipment manufacturing sectors [16][17] - The city's marine economy is also thriving, with significant advancements in deep-sea drilling and high-end seafood processing [16][17] Other Notable Cities - Cities like Xi'an, Wenzhou, and Shenyang are showcasing strong growth through their unique industrial strengths, emphasizing the importance of aligning with suitable development paths [16][17]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed strong performance with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching new all-time highs despite uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts [1] - Nvidia's stock rose approximately 2% following positive comments from CEO Jensen Huang regarding chip demand and support for Elon Musk's AI startup xAI [1] - The market remains optimistic despite ongoing government shutdown concerns, with investors potentially seeking safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [2] Group 2 - Concerns about a tech bubble are countered by investment strategist Michael Brown, who argues that valuations of tech giants remain reasonable and have ample room for growth [3] - The trend of investors turning to alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin indicates ongoing attention to political and economic uncertainties [3] - AI-related investments continue to support tech stocks, even as the market navigates between peaks and corrections [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 当然，猜测本身就伴随着风险。白宫发言人周一表示，美国并未考虑入股Critical Metals，该股涨幅随即 收窄过半，最终收涨45%，这仍然算是一个不错的交易日，但远低于早前109%的涨幅。 音频由扣子空间生成 当地时间周一晚间，总部位于温哥华的Trilolgy Metals Inc.股价上涨了一倍多。此前白宫表示，美国政府 将收购该公司10%的股份。截至周一收盘，该公司的市值为3.43亿美元。 先是向一家鲜为人知的稀土矿商MP Materials投资4亿美元，接着是向陷入困境的芯片制造商英特尔豪掷 100亿美元，然后又增持了立志在美国生产锂的Lithium Americas的股份。特朗普政府的每一笔投资都让 目标公司的股价飙升了两位数。现在，投资者们都在好奇，下一个会是谁？ 联邦政府提振部分美国企业的举动，催生了一个特殊的投机热潮，投资者们仔细研究着被美国总统特朗 普视为至关重要的行业公司名单，从矿产商到芯片制造商再到制药公司。说真的，任何获得政府拨款的 上市公司都受到了密切关注。 在Decklebaum看来，这些股价波动的投机性质让人想起了新冠疫情期间席卷市场的"模 ...

来源：环球市场播报 在OpenAI不断扩张、带动科技股大涨之际，投资者情绪高涨。但越来越多华尔街专业人士担心，那些 在短短几分钟内就能令市值增加数百亿美元的剧烈拉升，正在释放出不健康的信号，让人想起互联网泡 沫时期。 AMD公司周一也经历了这样的"火箭式"上涨。这家芯片制造商与OpenAI达成交易后，股价飙升，盘中 高位时公司市值一度增加约1000亿美元；该协议可能为其带来数十亿美元的营收。此前，甲骨文公司上 月曾单日大涨36%，一日之间为这家软件公司的市值增加了2550亿美元，起因是其对云业务给出了尤为 强劲的指引，其中包括与OpenAI达成的一项为期五年、价值3000亿美元的协议。 如今一旦开始去泡沫，冲击可能更为剧烈，因为主要科技股合计约占标普500指数的约35%，而1999年 时不到15%。 "市场给这些交易的定价，仿佛只要和OpenAI有往来，就一定会成为赢家，"Jonestrading首席市场策略 师Michael O'Rourke说道。"OpenAI是一家负现金流公司，签这些协议对它而言没有损失。投资者应该 更有鉴别力。但现在的环境是'先买了再说'。" 对冲基金亿万富豪Paul Tudor Jo ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration's investments have led to significant stock price increases for targeted companies, with MP Materials, Intel, and Lithium Americas seeing substantial gains following government involvement [1][4] - Investors are actively seeking companies in "critical sectors" identified by the Trump administration, including mining, chip manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, as potential beneficiaries of government support [1][4] - Speculation around potential government investments is driving stock volatility, with companies like Critical Metals Corp. and Trilogy Metals experiencing sharp price movements based on rumors of government involvement [1][5] Investment Trends - The U.S. government has access to billions in funding and contracts, which can create lucrative opportunities for investors who can predict the next target for investment [4] - Stocks of companies like MP Materials and Lithium Americas have seen dramatic price increases following government loans and investments, indicating a trend where government announcements lead to market reactions [4][5] - The speculative nature of these investments is reminiscent of the "meme stock" phenomenon during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about potential market corrections if government investments do not materialize [5] Potential Candidates - Analysts are identifying potential candidates for government investment, including Ramaco Resources, Energy Fuels, and Nouveau Monde Graphite, due to their holdings in critical minerals [6] - Australian companies like Iluka Resources and Lynas Rare Earths are also under consideration, with market speculation driving their stock prices higher [6] - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on critical minerals are benefiting from increased investor interest, with significant inflows reported in recent months [6]

Market Overview - European stock markets and US futures are lacking direction as investors await political developments on both sides of the Atlantic [1] - Gold prices retreated after approaching $4000 per ounce, following a historical high of $3977 [1] - The S&P 500 index futures slightly declined after reaching a record high on Monday, driven by a surge in technology stocks due to AI spending [1] - The Stoxx 600 index remained largely flat, while the French CAC40 index reversed early losses amid political turmoil in France [1] Political and Economic Factors - Concerns over a US government shutdown and a political crisis in France have led investors to seek alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin, both of which reached new highs [1] - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has prompted President Emmanuel Macron to make last-ditch efforts to stabilize the government [1] Sector-Specific Developments - Truck manufacturers such as Volvo AB and Daimler Truck Holding AG saw stock price declines due to President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks next month [1] - A series of AI-related transactions among chip manufacturers have driven stock prices up, raising concerns about a potential "speculative bubble" reminiscent of the late 1990s internet bubble [1] Investment Insights - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., believes concerns about a tech bubble are "overblown," citing that the valuations of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants are in line with their five-year averages [1] - The overall market's "path of least resistance" appears to be upward, supported by strong corporate earnings growth, robust economic resilience, and an increasingly accommodative monetary policy environment [1] - Recent significant deals in the data center sector, including a major transaction by Advanced Micro Devices, highlight the ongoing demand for computing power driven by tools like ChatGPT [1]

自从我们8月底介入机器人板块以来，就一直在思考近期投资的范式是什么？ 在资金较为充裕的情形下，各个板块要"争夺资金话语权"，需要用"确定性"来吸引市场 易中胜富 就是 英伟达链 的Tier 1，也就是确定性 或者 稀缺性 【笔者按】 易中胜富 在7、8和9月初过分的耀眼，也强化了我们一直认为的"风格转换" 进入9月，在国内芯片制造先进制成突破，光刻机技术突破，阿里等大CSP自研突破的背景下，国产算力一路走高，而我也第一时间意识到预期纠结选择标 的，不如一键打包选择芯片制造产业链的上中下游~。 结果确实买在国产科创芯片的起爆点！至今浮盈39% 节前最后交易日华虹和佰维成了最靓的仔~ | 代码 名称 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | | 688347 华虹公司 | +15.16% | | 688525 佰维存储 | 重研公社:回桃列名称 | 但其实也说明了，除了村龙，其他标的都以轮动的形式走强，哪怕寒武纪，海光信息，在GPU界的地位，都没法跟易中胜富四大天王相比。 除了菊厂占23%（甚至25年后还会扩大）外，其他包括寒武纪只有1%~3%的份额，而随着摩尔、沐曦、燧元等等上市GPU越来越多，寒武纪《原本稀缺 ...

美联储的降息预期也为市场注入了动力，支持了投资者利用美元融资、投资于高收益率本币债券的套利 交易。Principal Finisterre首席投资官Damien Buchet表示，今年摩根大通本币债券指数的回报中，约有一 半来自外汇升值。他补充说，"各国央行正处于宽松模式，而美元则保持着走弱的趋势"。 AI热潮与高收益率共振 在美元走弱、估值吸引以及人工智能热潮的共同推动下，新兴市场资产正迎来一场强劲复苏，其股市表 现创下2009年以来的最佳开局。这场广泛的上涨标志着新兴市场在经历了长达十余年的低迷后，正以强 有力的姿态重返全球投资者的视野。 今年以来，衡量新兴市场股市的MSCI基准指数已飙升28%，这是自全球金融危机后复苏的2009年以 来，同期录得的最大涨幅。这一表现远超发达经济体，后者的MSCI指数同期涨幅不足17%。 债券市场同样表现出色。摩根大通一项追踪发展中国家本币政府债券的指数上涨了16%，创下2016年以 来的最大涨幅。美联储转向降息的预期，叠加新兴市场自身的高收益率，正吸引大量寻求回报的资金涌 入。 分析人士认为，在经历了长达15年的平庸表现后，"有利因素终于开始汇集"。Fiera Capi ...