今日早参 2025 年 7 月 08 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：暑期出行热度修复、黑色系价格上升 7 月第一周，地产方面，成交表现有所分化，上季末冲刺对数据与基数皆有 影响，新房略有修复，二手房整体趋势仍有收敛，房价有待企稳，土地溢价 率等指标低位运行。外需方面，吞吐量同比维持韧性，运价整体下降，特别 是前期涨幅较高的美线运价回落明显。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量有所 上行，但焦化、地炼、化工产业链与汽车开工率较前期有所收敛；建筑业方 面，水泥需求边际上略好于供给，黑色供需偏弱且延续主动去库，沥青开工 率当周有一定修复。消费方面，出行热度修复、暑期预定同比增长，汽车消 费热度延续。价格方面，原油受地缘扰动明显，黑色价格在反内卷政策影响 下上行。 风险提示：1)政策推进不及预期。2)海外经济和地缘政治风险的不确定性。 研报发布日期：2025-07-07 研究员 张继强 SAC:S05705181100 ...

8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单全部下达 "软""硬"兼备 "两重"建设再提速 盛夏，宁夏回族自治区中卫市沙坡头区长流水村，在腾格里沙漠固沙锁边工程的现场，一个连着一个的 草方格替代了曾经的连片黄沙，工人们正抓紧播撒草籽，栽种耐旱的沙生灌木。这里地处腾格里沙漠的 东南缘，是我国"三北"工程的重要组成部分。自2024年起，"三北"工程被国家发展改革委纳入"两重"建 设(国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设)支持范围。 今年6月30日，随着最后一列草方格扎进沙子，宁夏境内腾格里沙漠固沙锁边工程全线贯通，一条长约 153千米、最宽处达38千米的固沙锁边"绿链"牢牢地镶嵌在"中国第四大沙漠"的东南边缘。至此，宁夏 实现了境内腾格里沙漠的全面"锁定"。这是我国加速推进"两重"建设的一个缩影。 今年，有关部门的支持力度进一步加大。记者从国家发展改革委了解到，该委已于近日安排超3000亿元 用来支持2025年第三批"两重"建设项目。截至目前，今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完 毕，"两重"建设进一步提速。 "硬投资"稳定经济增长 从项目实施情况来看，统筹推进"硬投资"与"软建设"，是当前"两重"建设的一大特 ...

分析认为，粤港两地经济、文化多领域合作持续深化，节假日和大型活动对人员流动的拉动作用显著。 今年上半年，在春节前后、清明、五一、端午等节假日以及各类演出赛事时期，广深港高铁单日跨境旅 客均超10万人次，其中最高峰在1月31日，达13.6万人次。 记者7月7日从深圳铁路部门获悉，今年以来，广深港高铁呈现出双向客流同步增长的强劲态势。1-6 月，广深港高铁累计运送跨境旅客达1503.2万人次，与去年同期相比增长208.8万人次，增幅达16.1%。 亮眼的数据，不仅彰显了广深港高铁在粤港澳大湾区交通网络中的核心地位，更生动地反映出大湾区人 员往来的日益紧密和经济的蓬勃发展。 据统计，2025年上半年，广深港高铁累计开行旅客列车超3.7万列，跨境客流在6月30日当天突破了1500 万人次，较去年提早了27天实现。 从客流流向来看，双向客流都出现了强劲增长。其中，香港西九龙发往内地的旅客达736.2万人次，较 去年同期增长96.7万人次，同比增长15.1%。内地发往香港西九龙的旅客达767万人次，较去年同期增长 112.1万人次，增幅为17.1%。 从客流区域分布来看，广深港高铁已成为粤港澳大湾区人员流动的重要通道。上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the ballastless track construction for the Guangzhan High-speed Railway marks a significant milestone in the project, which is the longest and largest railway project in Guangdong Province, enhancing connectivity in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Guangzhan High-speed Railway spans 401 kilometers, making it the longest and largest railway project in Guangdong Province [1]. - The section constructed by China Railway 25th Bureau covers 10.38 kilometers, including two major bridges and two segments of roadbed, with a total length of 8.2 kilometers of double-track ballastless railway [1]. Group 2: Construction Details - The construction of ballastless track is a critical phase that requires stringent control over geometric dimensions and precision, with track slab size deviations needing to be within 2 millimeters [3]. - The project employs a track slab framework method to enhance construction efficiency and maintain precision control at the millimeter level [3]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The Guangzhan High-speed Railway is designed for a maximum speed of 350 kilometers per hour and is a key component of the national "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed railway network [3]. - Upon completion, the railway will significantly reduce travel time between the western Guangdong region and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, allowing for a 90-minute journey from downtown Guangzhou to downtown Zhanjiang [3].

Fixed Income - The overall credit spread across various industries has compressed, with the AA agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experiencing a significant reduction of 9 basis points [2][9] - The issuance rates for AA-rated industrial bonds and AAA-rated financial bonds have decreased significantly, while the issuance rate for AA-rated urban investment bonds has increased [7] - The market is optimistic about credit bonds yielding over 2%, suggesting investors should consider extending duration and exploring opportunities in the newly approved science and technology innovation bond ETFs [10] Maternal and Infant Industry - Recent government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, such as childcare subsidies and housing benefits, are expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry [12] - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is projected to reach 762.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth trend from 2018 to 2024 [12] - The market for maternal and infant chain stores is growing, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% expected from 2019 to 2024, indicating significant room for growth in lower-tier cities [12][13] Transportation Industry - The Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, particularly TikTok Shop, has shown substantial growth, benefiting logistics companies in the region [16][17] - The civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 21.01 million in the first month of the summer travel period [19] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles by companies like Shentong and JD Logistics is expected to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce costs significantly [18][29] Deep Sea Economy - The deep-sea economy is gaining attention, with the national marine production value projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 5.9% [34] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected increase in value added from 1,032 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,126 billion yuan in 2025 [34] - There are 11 companies listed on the North Exchange involved in the deep-sea economy, indicating a growing interest in this sector [34][35] AI Applications - The AI companionship product "EVE" has begun testing, highlighting the advancement of AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce, gaming, and education [12] - Major tech companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are continuously iterating on foundational technologies and products, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [12] Shipping and Logistics - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from OPEC+'s production increase, which may enhance the demand for oil transportation [23][31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards more efficient operations, with companies like Shenzhen International and DeBang Logistics poised for growth due to strategic transformations [30] - The overall shipping market is recovering, with environmental regulations driving the retirement of older vessels, thus improving market conditions [31][32]

"确定性"多点开花，业绩估值各有看点 [Table_Industry] 交通运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 | [Table_ReportType] | | --- | | 行业投资策略 | | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110001 邮 箱：huangan@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 陈依晗 交通运输行业助理 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Ta ...

股票代码：601006 股票简称：大秦铁路 公告编号：【临2025-050】 12025年7月8日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 2025年6月，公司核心经营资产大秦线完成货物运输量3242万吨，同比 增长5.29%。日均运量108.07万吨。大秦线日均开行重车72.1列，其中：日均 开行2万吨列车50.9列。2025年1-6月，大秦线累计完成货物运输量18873万吨， 同比减少2.17%。 以上主要运营数据来自本公司内部统计。运营数据可能在月度之间存在 一定差异，其影响因素包括但不限于市场环境、设备检修和接卸能力等。 大秦铁路股份有限公司 董 事 会 大秦铁路股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月大秦线生产经营数据简报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the strong growth in Southeast Asia's e-commerce logistics, particularly benefiting from TikTok Shop's significant GMV growth in Q2 2025, with increases of 93% in Thailand, 145% in Indonesia, 191% in Vietnam, 245% in the Philippines, 211% in Malaysia, and 30% in Singapore [4] - The report notes that the civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with over 21.01 million domestic flight tickets booked in the first month of the summer travel period, indicating a 5.2% increase in flight numbers compared to the previous year [6][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand resilience in the express delivery sector, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - TikTok Shop's Q2 2025 GMV growth indicates a robust demand for Southeast Asian express delivery services, with Jitu's market share reaching 28.6% [4] - Shentong plans to deploy 2,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025 to enhance delivery capabilities [5] - JD Logistics has launched a self-developed VAN unmanned light truck, which can save approximately 60% in costs compared to traditional transport [5] Civil Aviation - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a peak in passenger flow, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and expected price hikes for popular routes [6] - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group to promote the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy [7] - The resumption of aircraft engine exports from the US to China signals a thaw in trade tensions [7] Shipping and Ports - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to regain market share [8] - China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry has been approved, indicating consolidation in the industry [9] - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased by 5.3%, while oil tanker freight rates have also declined [10][11] Road and Rail - The report notes a slight decrease in toll revenue for Shenzhen Expressway in May, while the overall logistics operations remain stable [14] - National railway freight transport has shown a slight increase, indicating steady logistics performance [14] Overall Market Performance - The A-share transportation index decreased by 0.33% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.40% [20] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of various sub-sectors, highlighting the performance of express delivery, aviation, shipping, and logistics [22][25][49][55]

Core Insights - The national railway transported a total of 78.452 million tons of goods last week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.18% [1] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 52.977 million, showing a week-on-week decline of 2.42% [1] - Port cargo throughput amounted to 259.88 million tons, down 5.28% compared to the previous week, while container throughput decreased by 2.14% to 6.53 million TEUs [1] - Civil aviation supported a total of 133,000 flights, including 5,105 cargo flights, marking a week-on-week increase of 5.01% [1] - The postal and express delivery sector recorded approximately 3.742 billion items collected, a slight decrease of 0.35%, and about 3.711 billion items delivered, down 1.96% week-on-week [1]

金十图示：2025年07月07日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行股走势分化，石油、煤炭板块下跌 长江电力 中国核电 东方财富 1943.68亿市值 3603.32亿市值 7374.72亿市值 7.28亿成交额 3.62亿成交额 35.38亿成交额 9.45 22.80 30.14 -0.02(-0.07%) +0.04(+0.43%) 0.00(0.00%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 期天 4117.15亿市值 3390.19亿市值 2257.02亿市值 10.02亿成交额 4.73亿成交额 1.83亿成交额 27.78 38.65 19.23 +0.12(+0.43%) -0.11(-0.57%) -0.21(-0.54%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 工业富联 立讯精密 2495.93亿市值 3501.79亿市值 4736.48亿市值 10.09亿成交额 28.77亿成交额 20.24亿成交额 52.76 34.42 23.85 -0.87(-2.47%) +0.04(+0.17%) -0.50(-0.94%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 格力电器 牧原股份 海尔智家 ...