南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年09月11日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：76000 | 40.7% | 67.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 采购管理 | 产品价格无相关性：未来有 未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据 | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 20% | 67000-70000 | | | 生产电池材料的计划，担心 | 生产计划需买入对应生产计 | | | | | | | | 划的期货合约锁定采购成 ...

9月11日，智通财经获悉，其全资子公司宜春时代新能源资源有限公司在9月9日召开的"宜春时代枧下窝 锂矿复产工作会议"上作出多项会议决策。 包括将枧下窝锂矿停产后，调配已应援到电池厂的第一批原矿区员工尽快召回，第二批员工停止应援调 配；梳理采矿、选矿、冶炼环节，拉通供应公司、检查生产设备，确保复产时一切就绪；做好启动前安 全检查，重做安全联锁测试，保证复工复产安全；复产后尽快实现满负荷生产；同步对接龙蟠科技、天 新能华两家冶炼合作方，要求其做好复产准备工作；预计复产后，碳酸锂将供过于求，要做好降本工 作，采矿、选矿、冶炼全流程执行降本计划，确保在碳酸锂低价区间，仍能保持成本竞争力。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market was active in low - price point pricing, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects, short - term supply and demand are both strong. With the active resumption of lithium mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 2,520 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 751,480 hands (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 hands (-10,526) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The registered warehouse receipt was 38,101 tons, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - **Project Progress**: Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, completing the design of the 4th pond, which can support an annual operation of 400 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. The project aims to reach an annual production of 21,000 tons in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - **Export Data**: In August, Brazilian lithium ore exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The export decline was mainly due to the inactivity of Brazil's largest lithium ore exporter, Sigma Lithium [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with small increases in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. The resumption of lithium mines is actively advancing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1].

其全资子公司宜春时代新能源资源有限公司在9月9日召开的"宜春时代枧下窝锂矿复产工作会议"上作出 多项会议决策。 包括将枧下窝锂矿停产后，调配已应援到电池厂的第一批原矿区员工尽快召回，第二 批员工停止应援调配；梳理采矿、选矿、冶炼环节，拉通供应公司、检查生产设备，确保复产时一切就 绪；做好启动前安全检查，重做安全联锁测试，保证复工复产安全；复产后尽快实现满负荷生产；同步 对接龙蟠科技、天新能华两家冶炼合作方，要求其做好复产准备工作；预计复产后，碳酸锂将供过于 求，要做好降本工作，采矿、选矿、冶炼全流程执行降本计划，确保在碳酸锂低价区间，仍能保持成本 竞争力。（智通财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a weak - downward trend, and advises to pay attention to the actual progress of production resumption [3]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,720 yuan, down 2,180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 70,800 yuan, down 2,100 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 168,470 lots, up 53,958 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 174,101 lots, down 4,445 lots from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 38,101 lots, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The basis of spot - 2511 was 2,730 yuan, up 1,030 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2601 was 2,650 yuan, up 950 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 80 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between spot and CIF was 6,502 yuan, down 768 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 849 yuan, down 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan, down 50 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Industry Chain - related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,620 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 32,225 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 29,430 yuan, down 270 yuan from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, down 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a landmark cooperation agreement to jointly mine lithium in the Atacama Salt Flat. Supporters believe this will diversify Codelco's revenue sources as it faces financial pressure due to falling copper production and debt surges from over - budget expansion projects [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

【环球网财经综合报道】日前国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，正式公布我 国战略性新兴产业矿产找矿取得重大突破——新发现横跨四川、青海、西藏、新疆四省区的"亚洲锂腰 带"，标志着我国锂资源供应体系实现全球领先，为新能源汽车等战略产业提供核心资源保障。 自然资源部相关负责人在发布会上介绍，成矿带内已发现多处具有工业开发价值的锂矿床，资源储量有 望进一步扩大，这一成果是"十四五"自然资源工作高质量发展的标志性成就，对支撑"双碳"目标实现、 推动新能源汽车产业链发展具有战略意义。 另据多家机构此前预测，大量资金开始押注碳酸锂后续涨价以及锂矿企业三季报业绩，但碳酸锂供大于 求的市场格局并未扭转；如果"反内卷"执行政策超预期（如锂矿开采审批收紧），价格可能上探8万-9 万元/吨。花旗则预计，此前受到枧下窝矿供应中断的市场情绪，在短期内推动锂价升至超过8万元/ 吨，随后或将回落至7万-8万元/吨的交易区间。 ...

9月10日，碳酸锂期货大幅低开，主力合约一度跌超7%，随后跌幅略有收窄。截至当日收盘，主力合约 报70720元／吨，下跌4.87%。 谈及碳酸锂期货价格下跌的原因，中信期货分析师王美丹表示，主要是市场传出宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复 产消息，供应增长预期增强，市场情绪转向，推动价格下跌。 据了解，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿于8月10日开始停产。据中信期货分析师杨飞介绍，枧下窝锂矿及配套冶 炼厂的碳酸锂产量约1万吨／月，占国内总产量的12.5%。杨飞表示，在三季度碳酸锂市场供需紧平衡 的背景下，该锂矿停产或造成单月数千吨的供应缺口。 记者留意到，在宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产"满月"之际，市场传出复产消息。 9月10日，记者求证获悉，宁德时代控股子公司宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司于9月9日召开了"枧下窝锂 矿复产工作会议"，讨论推进枧下窝锂矿复产工作。 记者了解到，此次召开会议，给公司内部的办证小组下达了任务目标，争取能够在今年11月完成枧下窝 锂矿的复产工作。但能否如期达成复产目标，尚无定论，后续或根据实际推进情况进行灵活调整。 "昨日午后，有消息称宁德时代召开锂矿复产会议，市场将其解读为枧下窝锂矿的采矿证不再受矿种影 响，复产速度 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, while the year-on-year increase was 2.6% [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92%, with an 8% chance for a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 2: Oracle Corporation - Oracle's stock surged over 40%, marking its largest intraday gain since 1992 [4] - Oracle projected a 77% increase in cloud infrastructure sales to $18 billion for the fiscal year 2026, exceeding market expectations [7] - Several investment banks raised their price targets for Oracle, with Wolfe Research increasing it from $300 to $400, indicating a 67% upside potential [7] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling over 7% before slightly recovering, closing at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [9] - The decline in lithium prices is attributed to market expectations of increased supply following news of the resumption of production at the Jiangxia lithium mine [9][10] - The Jiangxia lithium mine, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of China's total lithium production, is expected to resume operations by November [10][11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Inventory - Despite the recent price drop, demand for lithium remains strong, particularly for energy storage and power battery orders, which are expected to continue growing until November [12] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, indicating a high willingness to replenish stock among downstream enterprises [13] - The market is currently in a sensitive phase, balancing between supply recovery and demand stability, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [13]

9月10日，碳酸锂期货大幅低开，主力合约一度跌超7%，随后跌幅略有收窄。截至当日收盘，主力合约 报70720元/吨，下跌4.87%。 谈及昨日碳酸锂期货价格下跌的原因，中信期货分析师王美丹表示，主要是市场传出宁德时代枧下窝锂 矿复产消息，供应增长预期增强，市场情绪转向，推动价格下跌。 据了解，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿于8月10日开始停产。据中信期货分析师杨飞介绍，枧下窝锂矿及配套冶 炼厂的碳酸锂产量约1万吨/月，占国内总产量的12.5%。杨飞表示，在三季度碳酸锂市场供需紧平衡的 背景下，该锂矿停产或造成单月数千吨的供应缺口。 期货日报记者留意到，在宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产"满月"之际，市场传出复产消息。 9月10日，期货日报记者求证获悉，宁德时代控股子公司宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司于9月9日召开 了"枧下窝锂矿复产工作会议"，讨论推进枧下窝锂矿复产工作。 记者了解到，此次召开会议，给公司内部的办证小组下达了任务目标，争取能够在今年11月完成枧下窝 锂矿的复产工作。但能否如期达成复产目标，尚无定论，后续或根据实际推进情况进行灵活调整。 富宝锂电分析师苏津仪认为，枧下窝锂矿具体复产日期仍不确定，后续实际影响需进一步验证。 ...