Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days" rally, with a rise of 1.88%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.90% [1][17] - The market sentiment remains bullish despite the absence of significant positive news during the rally, indicating a strong expectation for the upcoming cross-year market [1][11] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to 19,569 billion, showing a rise compared to the previous week [1][17] Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded "eight consecutive days" only 17 times since 2000, primarily during bull markets [2][34] - The median increase in the index following previous "eight consecutive days" has been 2.6% in the following week, 2.3% in the following month, and 6.3% over three months [2][35] - The current rally's increase of only 2.8% during the "eight consecutive days" is lower than the historical median, suggesting a higher probability of market consolidation rather than accelerated growth [2][35] Structural Analysis - The current market structure shows that small-cap indices such as the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have reached new highs, indicating a trend where small caps outperform large caps [4][11] - Key sectors that have achieved new highs include non-ferrous metals, military industry, communications, insurance, machinery, and chemicals, reflecting a "new and old coexistence" structural feature [4][11] - The report anticipates a shift in 2026 from a "new surpassing old" narrative to a "new and old coexistence" theme, with a focus on traditional industries benefiting from global pricing resources and cyclical recovery [4][11] Investment Focus - For AI technology investments, the report emphasizes a focus on core sectors with strong fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach until significant breakthroughs in AI applications occur [5] - The traditional industries, particularly those involved in overseas expansion and global pricing resources, are expected to see profit growth in 2026, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, machinery, and electrical equipment [5] - The report highlights the recent surge in silver prices and the significant drop in the gold-silver ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities in precious metals [5]

CONTENTS 01 国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：宏观清淡平稳搭台，贵金 属、有色爆发 二为交割制度 • FICC-人民币：人民币破七，贸易账为基石，利 差和结汇配合 • FICC-人民币：政策态度较为明确，短期升值空 间或有限 • 周度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a "cross-year + spring" rally, driven by significant institutional investment in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, which brings stable incremental capital to the market. The continuous appreciation of the offshore RMB is expected to attract foreign capital back to the Chinese market, further improving the liquidity situation [1][2][21]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Major institutional investors are increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, contributing to stable incremental capital in the market. Despite the large net subscriptions of A500 ETF potentially being influenced by quarter-end dynamics, the impact on liquidity is considered limited. Following the surge in A500 subscriptions, financing capital has also seen accelerated net inflows [2][6][21]. - In the first four trading days, financing capital saw a net inflow of 413.4 billion yuan, while new equity public funds increased by 100.4 million units, up by 31.9 million units from the previous period. The net inflow from ETF subscriptions reached 330.5 billion yuan [4][42][51]. Sector and Industry Focus - The market is likely to focus on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors. Key sectors to watch include industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation, as well as the new energy industry chain and semiconductor sectors [2][7][22]. - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and new energy. For instance, platinum prices rose by 32.92%, silver by 14.38%, and nickel by 9.25% due to global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [22][40]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, attributed to the offshore RMB breaking the 7.0 mark, creating a 15-month high, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has led to improved market liquidity. The central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy has also stabilized market expectations regarding future liquidity [3][28]. - The three major indices have broken through and stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming a bullish arrangement, providing an opportunity for positioning ahead of the cross-year rally [3][28]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing net inflow into A500 ETF reinforces a structural market rally, with significant capital flowing into high-weighted industries such as electronics, power equipment, and banking, which collectively account for over 45% of the index weight [12][17]. - The anticipated launch of options for A500 ETF in 2026 is expected to attract more capital, as historical data suggests that once an ETF is selected as an options underlying, its shares typically see a 40% to 60% increase in the short term [15][21]. Conclusion - The current market is gradually accumulating upward momentum, with a sustained "cross-year + spring" rally expected to continue. The focus remains on the inflow of incremental capital, the performance of cyclical sectors, and the potential for foreign capital to return to the Chinese market [6][26][21].

近日，瀚丰中兴办理了延期购回交易，交易延期11个月，延期后购回交易日不晚于2026年11月25日，质 押股票数量不变。 智通财经APP讯，赤峰黄金(06693)发布公告，近日，公司收到控股股东李金阳女士及其一致行动人烟台 瀚丰中兴管理咨询中心(有限合伙)(简称"瀚丰中兴")的通知，获悉控股股东将其所持有的部分公司股份 办理了质押手续，瀚丰中兴办理了股票质押式回购延期购回交易。2025年12月24日，控股股东将其持有 的2300万股公司股份质押予西藏信托有限公司，并于2025年12月25日取得《证券质押登记证明》。 ...

年内，528只个股年内涨幅超过1倍，翻倍股数量是去年（125只）的4倍多。其中，124只个股涨幅超2倍，6只个股超5倍。 2025.12. 28 本文字数：2761，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 2025年的A股市场就将迎来收官，回首全年，A股市场产生了528只翻倍股，数量是2024年的4倍多。其中，124只个股涨幅超2倍，6只个股超5倍。 区间涨幅最高的2只个股为上纬新材（688585.SH）和天普股份（605255.SH），是按收盘价计算年内唯二的十倍股。高居涨幅榜的"牛股"呈现出两大 特点：或是AI概念股，或是并购概念股。 要么AI、要么并购 Wind数据显示，从区间涨幅来看，2025年，在统计的5176只个股（扣除年内上市新股、退市及其他风险警示股，下同）中，有4153只个股年内股价收 涨，占比80%，而2024年这个比例仅为53%，牛市之中，上市公司股价实现了普涨。 2025年区间涨幅最高的2只个股为上纬新材和天普股份，区间涨幅分别达到15.6倍和13.42倍，是按收盘价计算年内唯二的十倍股。另外，胜宏科技 （300476.SZ）、鼎泰高科（301377.SZ）、菲林格尔（603 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of wealthy Chinese individuals returning to Hong Kong from Singapore, highlighting Hong Kong's growing appeal as a financial hub and its advantages in wealth management and digital currency policies [4][6][8]. Group 1: Wealth Migration Trends - In recent years, there has been a notable shift of wealthy Chinese individuals from Singapore back to Hong Kong, with a reported 22.9% increase in high-net-worth individuals in Hong Kong compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. - The report from the Hong Kong Accounting Firm indicates that there are 17,215 high-net-worth individuals in Hong Kong, marking it as the region with the largest growth in the global wealth market [4]. Group 2: Financial Market Dynamics - Hong Kong's stock market has shown exceptional activity, with projections indicating that it will reclaim the top position in the global IPO market in 2025, raising an estimated HKD 272.1 billion and listing 100 companies, representing a year-on-year growth of 210% and 43% respectively [6]. - Notable companies such as CATL and Chery Automobile have chosen to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CATL's IPO raising HKD 410 billion, the largest globally for the year [6]. Group 3: Digital Currency Environment - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a global innovation center for digital assets, with a supportive regulatory environment that has attracted many digital currency players back from Singapore [8]. - The Hong Kong government has released policies aimed at fostering a conducive environment for digital assets, including the "New Capital Investor Entry Scheme" which has gained attention for its flexible investment arrangements [8][9]. Group 4: Family Office Development - The family office sector in Hong Kong is rapidly growing, with assets under management reaching HKD 14.5 trillion in 2023, a 76% increase from HKD 825 billion in 2017 [11]. - Hong Kong has approximately 2,700 single-family offices managing over USD 1 trillion in assets, which is double that of Singapore, indicating a competitive advantage in the family office market [11][12]. Group 5: Regulatory Challenges in Singapore - Singapore's family office market has faced scrutiny due to allegations of money laundering and fraud, leading to increased regulatory measures that may deter some wealthy individuals from establishing offices there [14][15]. - Recent high-profile cases of fraud linked to family offices in Singapore have raised concerns about the integrity of the financial environment, prompting stricter regulations [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US dollar index has returned to around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week, despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations. Concerns about the US labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][18] - Non-US currencies experienced overall appreciation last week, with significant gains in commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar (up 1.57%), New Zealand dollar (up 1.37%), Norwegian krone (up 1.34%), and Canadian dollar (up 0.95%). The British pound rose by 0.88%, while the euro saw a modest increase of about 0.5% [1] - The Japanese yen reversed previous losses after the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike in December, ultimately appreciating by 0.75% last week. The Chinese yuan also accelerated its appreciation, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing 7.0 due to a weak dollar and increased year-end settlement demand [1][10] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain relatively stable during the last three trading days of 2025, with liquidity likely to remain weak due to many traders being on holiday. Attention will be focused on the Chinese yuan exchange rate, which may face upward pressure as year-end settlement pressures are released [2] - The prediction range for USD/CNY is set between 7.00 and 7.03. Last week, the yuan maintained a moderate appreciation trend, although the pace of appreciation was limited by the steady exchange rate policy [3][10] - The yuan's appreciation is supported by seasonal factors, but the central bank's steady exchange rate policy has constrained the rate of appreciation. The central bank's recent signals emphasize the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [11][16] Group 3 - The euro experienced a rise early last week but faced resistance around 1.18, ultimately closing with a weekly gain of about 0.5%. The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations may continue to influence the euro's performance [17] - Concerns about the US labor market persist, with Q3 GDP growth recorded at 4.3%, surpassing expectations. However, weekly unemployment claims data indicates a weakening employment growth momentum, maintaining high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [18] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to have ended its current rate cut cycle, as indicated by the OIS market, which reflects a relatively calm European market during the Christmas holiday [21]

"涨到人头晕目眩"！ 有分析指出，受全球结构性赤字、库存暴跌及纸面交易脱节影响，白银正面临供应挤压。由于在光伏与电动车 领域不可替代，白银供应瓶颈正对现代工业链造成严峻挑战。 马斯克重大警告 美东时间12月26日，COMEX白银期货暴涨11.15%，报79.68美元/盎司，本周累涨18.06%；现货白银暴涨 10.24%，报79.196美元/盎司，本周累涨17.87%。 本周，白银价格上演史诗级暴涨，COMEX白银期货周五暴涨超11%，现货白银暴涨超10%，再创历史新高， 年内累计涨幅达175%，迅猛涨势远超黄金。对此，特斯拉CEO马斯克表达了担忧，直言这对工业发展"不是好 事"。 当地时间12月27日，马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发表评论称："这不好。白银在许多工业过程中是被需要的。" 马斯克的担忧主要源于白银在现代工业中的核心地位。与黄金不同，白银不仅仅是避险资产，更是工业金属， 其在太阳能电池板、电动汽车、电子产品及医疗设备中都具有不可替代的作用。 目前工业需求在白银总需求中的占比已攀升至50%至60%，因此白银价格的疯涨正在加剧实体制造商的焦虑。 花旗分析师估计，太阳能产业消耗了近30%来自采矿和回收的年 ...

Core Insights - The surge in gold trade between Russia and China is not merely a buyer-seller relationship but reflects deeper financial strategies amid geopolitical tensions [1][3][5] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Russia's gold exports to China reached $1.9 billion in the first 11 months of the year, a nearly tenfold increase compared to the same period last year, with November alone accounting for $961 million [1][3] - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts and Western sanctions has led Russia to seek new markets for its gold, with China emerging as a reliable partner [3][5] Group 2: Strategic Importance - Gold is considered a "hard currency" and serves as a financial safety net amid increasing instability of the US dollar, prompting China to enhance its gold reserves, which reached 74.12 million ounces by the end of November [5][8] - The influx of Russian gold not only fulfills China's demand for gold reserves but also comes at a discounted price due to Western sanctions, strengthening China's financial security [5][8] Group 3: Changing Global Landscape - The growing trade between China and Russia is altering the global gold trading rules, with transactions increasingly conducted in local currencies, bypassing the US dollar [7][8] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is gaining prominence as a pricing hub, challenging the traditional dominance of London and New York in gold pricing [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [7][8] - China's proactive acquisition of Russian gold is seen as a strategic move to secure a stable supply source amid a global trend of central banks increasing gold holdings [8]

2025年的A股市场就将迎来收官，回首全年，A股市场产生了528只翻倍股，数量是2024年的4倍多。其 中，124只个股涨幅超2倍，6只个股超5倍。 区间涨幅最高的2只个股为上纬新材（688585.SH）和天普股份（605255.SH），是按收盘价计算年内唯 二的十倍股。高居涨幅榜的"牛股"呈现出两大特点：或是AI概念股，或是并购概念股。 要么AI、要么并购 Wind数据显示，从区间涨幅来看，2025年，在统计的5176只个股（扣除年内上市新股、退市及其他风 险警示股，下同）中，有4153只个股年内股价收涨，占比80%，而2024年这个比例仅为53%，牛市之 中，上市公司股价实现了普涨。 年内，528只个股年内涨幅超过1倍，翻倍股数量是去年（125只）的4倍多。其中，124只个股涨幅超2 倍，6只个股超5倍。 2025年区间涨幅最高的2只个股为上纬新材和天普股份，区间涨幅分别达到15.6倍和13.42倍，是按收盘 价计算年内唯二的十倍股。另外，胜宏科技（300476.SZ）、鼎泰高科（301377.SZ）、菲林格尔 （603226.SH）、品茗科技（688109.SH）成为今年的5倍股，分别涨596.54%、 ...