2月4日，国内、国际银价进一步拉高，沪银期货主力合约涨逾11%。现货白银日内涨超6%，现报90美 元/盎司。纽约期银涨超8%，现报90美元/盎司。 2026年开年，白银经历了"史诗级行情"。首先是持续已久的史诗级牛市。2025年，国际现货白银从年初 不足30美元/盎司一路增长，最高突破83美元/盎司，全年最大涨幅超180％，远超国际现货黄金约60％ 的全年涨幅。 持续上涨的白银在2026年1月14日突破90美元/盎司，根据市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap的数据，白 银全球市值首次突破5万亿美元，一度超越英伟达，成为仅次于黄金的全球第二大资产。 由于单价远低于黄金，白银常被称为"穷人黄金"，提供了更低的入场成本。白银的波动性也远高于黄 金，有"魔鬼金属"之称，普通投资者极易在狂热的市场中受损。 1月30日，凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）被正式提名为下一任美联储主席，黄金和白银在"黑色星期五"迎来 史诗级暴跌，现货白银单日收跌26.9％，创历史单日跌幅之最。跌势在2月2日延续，现货白银报收79.2 美元/盎司。2月3日，贵金属价格显著反弹，黄金期价重回每盎司4800美元上方，白银也暴涨超8％ ...

就在数月前，这只白银ETF的单日成交额仅约20亿美元，去年12月末该数值攀升至约100亿美元。 白银价格的极端暴涨，正推动iShares白银信托交易所交易基金（ETF）的成交量激增，该基金周一录得近400亿美元的成交额。 作为参考，这一成交额几乎与全球最大的ETF之一——道富环球投资的标普500 ETF持平，同时还超过了英伟达公司230亿美元、特斯拉 公司220亿美元的单日股票成交额。 其他大宗商品及大宗商品相关资产也紧随白银的涨势走高：黄金今年以来涨幅达18%，摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）全球金属与矿业指 数的涨幅也达到19%。 在流动性相对不足的白银市场，需求正在不断增长，当前的价格走势与成交规模愈发表明，纯粹的投机行为已基本取代经济基本面因 素，成为推动这一贵金属价格变动的核心驱动力。 在当前市场环境与海量资金涌入的背景下，白银交易因涨势过猛、后续动力难以为继而出现行情崩盘，并非没有可能。 2025年白银价格涨幅超一倍，且在步入2026年1月后涨势仍在狂飙，涨幅已接近60%，这一表现或将创下1979年以来的最大月度涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Roundhill Investments is relaunching its "Meme ETF" product, which was previously suspended in 2023, citing a more favorable regulatory environment and market conditions for its return [1][2] Group 1: ETF Relaunch - The new Meme ETF will implement an active management strategy, focusing on stocks with "meme-like characteristics," such as high price volatility, and will adjust its holdings at least once a week [1][4] - The CEO of Roundhill Investments noted that retail investors are once again exhibiting a strong appetite for risk, reminiscent of the trading frenzy in 2021 [1][4] Group 2: Market Context - Since the fund's closure, there has been a growing enthusiasm among speculators for high-risk investments, and the regulatory environment has become increasingly favorable [2] - The term "meme stock" gained popularity in 2021 when retail investors coordinated on social media to drive up stocks like GameStop (GME.US) and AMC Entertainment (AMC.US) [2][3] Group 3: Changes in Strategy - The new version of the Meme ETF will focus on a more streamlined portfolio of approximately twenty stocks, including Opendoor Technologies (OPEN.US), Plug Power (PLUG.US), and Applied Digital (APLD.US) [3][4] - Roundhill will consider various factors, including quantitative metrics and retail investor sentiment, to determine the next meme stock candidates [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - Other issuers are also launching products targeting smaller, more volatile stock categories, capitalizing on the popularity of ETFs [4] - The demand for leveraged and inverse single-stock funds has attracted billions of dollars in investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's direct investments in companies are creating a high-risk investment environment on Wall Street, with investors speculating on which companies might receive government support next to achieve significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Government Investment Impact - Recent government investments have led to dramatic stock price increases for companies like Trilogy Metals Inc., whose stock doubled after the government confirmed a 10% stake acquisition [1]. - Previous investments by the Trump administration in companies such as MP Materials Corp. and Intel Corp. resulted in stock price surges of 376% and 82%, respectively, highlighting a pattern of significant returns linked to government funding [3]. - Analysts suggest that the government's strategy aims to bolster domestic manufacturers and technology suppliers to secure critical supply chains, prompting investors to act quickly in anticipation of government involvement [3]. Group 2: Speculation and Risks - The speculative nature of current market behavior is underscored by the volatility seen in stocks like Critical Metals Corp., which saw a 109% increase before a government clarification led to a significant price drop [4]. - Comparisons are drawn between the current speculative environment and the "meme stock" frenzy during the COVID-19 pandemic, with concerns that similar patterns of volatility could emerge if government investments do not materialize as expected [4]. - Despite the risks, Wall Street continues to seek potential investment targets, with a focus on companies involved in critical materials, both domestically and internationally [4][5]. Group 3: Interest in Critical Minerals - There is growing interest in critical minerals, with significant inflows into related ETFs, such as the Sprott Critical Minerals ETF, which saw record inflows in August and a 77% increase year-to-date [6]. - The U.S. government's actions are seen as a catalyst for growth in specific industries, indicating a shift from mere verbal support to tangible investments aimed at enhancing domestic production capabilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ka-shing's rapid divestment of assets in China raises questions about his future strategies and the implications for the real estate market [5][7][22] Group 1: Asset Divestment - In July, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group sold 400 residential units across four projects, with prices starting as low as 400,000 HKD, significantly lower than typical market entry points [5][7] - The urgency of this asset liquidation during a market downturn has led to speculation about whether it is a strategic move to reallocate funds or an indication of retreat from the Chinese market [7][13] - The sale has attracted many buyers from Hong Kong, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and buyer sentiment [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Strategy - Li Ka-shing's past strategies involved acquiring land during downturns and selling during peaks, but the current divestment appears to contradict this pattern [7][14] - The case of the South City Hub project in Chengdu illustrates his long-term strategy of land hoarding and delayed development, which has historically yielded significant profits [14][15] - The project saw a land purchase in 2004 for over 2.1 billion HKD, with a floor price of 1,030 HKD/sqm, later selling at an average residential price of 24,000 HKD/sqm in 2020, resulting in substantial gains [15][19] Group 3: Market Implications - Li Ka-shing's divestment signals a potential shift in the real estate landscape, as it may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and increase housing affordability challenges for ordinary citizens [22][23] - The tightening of regulations against land hoarding and speculation since 2015 has impacted the operational strategies of major real estate players, including Li Ka-shing [26][28] - The evolving regulatory environment suggests that traditional strategies of "time for space" may no longer be viable, indicating a need for adaptation in investment approaches [28][29] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The changing global economic landscape, particularly in the context of US-China relations, has influenced perceptions of capital and investment strategies, with a growing emphasis on long-term value creation [37][38] - The narrative surrounding Li Ka-shing reflects broader societal concerns about the role of capital in economic development and the need for responsible investment practices that benefit the wider community [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ka-shing, a prominent Chinese businessman, is rapidly divesting his assets in China, leading to a shift in public perception about him [3][7]. Group 1: Asset Liquidation - In July, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group sold 400 residential units across four projects, with prices starting as low as 400,000 HKD, which is about one-third of the down payment for similar properties in Hong Kong [5][7]. - By early August, reports indicated a surge in demand from Hong Kong buyers, with many properties selling out quickly [6][7]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Historically, Li Ka-shing has been known for buying land during market downturns and selling during peaks. However, his recent asset liquidation during a market low raises questions about his strategy and intentions [7][10]. - The "art" of land hoarding and slow development has been a hallmark of Li's approach, exemplified by the South City Hub project in Chengdu, where he profited significantly by delaying construction and selling off portions of the project [10][11][15]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Since 2015, China's tightening real estate regulations have impacted Li Ka-shing's land hoarding strategies, leading to increased scrutiny and penalties for such practices [25][26]. - The shift in policy indicates a move towards addressing the imbalance in real estate supply and promoting more sustainable development practices [26][28]. Group 4: Broader Implications - Li Ka-shing's rise and current challenges reflect the changing dynamics of the business environment in China, where the focus is shifting towards long-term, sustainable growth rather than speculative practices [30][31]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic shifts are prompting a reevaluation of capital operations, with a growing emphasis on aligning business practices with national interests and social equity [34][35].

Group 1 - Economic data plays a crucial role in foreign exchange rate fluctuations, with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate directly reflecting the health and development trends of an economy [1] - Strong GDP growth indicates economic prosperity, attracting foreign investors and increasing demand for the currency, thus pushing the exchange rate up; conversely, weak economic growth may lead to decreased currency demand and downward pressure on the exchange rate [1] - Inflation rates significantly impact exchange rates, with high inflation eroding purchasing power and causing currency depreciation, while stable low inflation helps maintain currency value [1] Group 2 - Interest rates are a key factor influencing foreign exchange rates, as differences in interest rates between countries can lead to international capital flows [1] - Higher interest rates attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the currency and pushing the exchange rate up; lower interest rates may result in capital outflows, increasing currency supply and decreasing demand, leading to a drop in the exchange rate [1] - Central banks adjust interest rates to achieve monetary policy goals, directly affecting supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and thus impacting exchange rate trends [1] Group 3 - Political stability, policy consistency, and diplomatic relations significantly affect foreign exchange rates, with political turmoil or sudden policy changes creating uncertainty that may lead investors to reduce holdings in that currency, causing depreciation [2] - A stable political environment and transparent policies enhance investor confidence, providing support for the exchange rate [2] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as wars and trade disputes, disrupt economic order and affect investor sentiment and market expectations, leading to significant impacts on foreign exchange rates [2] Group 4 - Market expectations and speculative behavior also have a notable influence on foreign exchange rates, as investors' anticipations regarding future economic data, policy directions, and international events are often reflected in the market [2] - Positive expectations about economic improvement or central bank rate hikes may lead investors to buy the currency in advance, pushing the exchange rate up; negative expectations can result in currency sell-offs and declines in exchange rates [2] - Speculative trading in the foreign exchange market can significantly increase exchange rate volatility in the short term due to large-scale trading based on predicted trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - Major investment banks on Wall Street are raising alarms about increasing speculative behavior and rising leverage levels in the U.S. stock market, indicating that bubble risks are accumulating [1]. Group 1: Speculative Activity - Goldman Sachs warns that high-risk activities in the U.S. stock market have surged, with indicators of market speculation reaching historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2]. - Goldman Sachs' speculation trading indicators show that current levels are at historical peaks, except for the periods of 1998-2001 and 2020-2021 [6]. - The basket of stocks with the highest short interest has seen price increases exceeding 60%, indicating potential for further gains but also increasing the risk of a downturn [7]. Group 2: Leverage Levels - Deutsche Bank highlights that margin debt levels have reached a "dangerous" threshold, with total margin debt exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history as of June [3][8]. - Margin debt surged by 18.5% over two months, marking the fastest pace of leverage increase since late 1999 or mid-2007, which poses potential threats to credit markets [8]. - Deutsche Bank strategists suggest that unless unexpected tariff reductions or a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve occur, the current market exuberance may not be sustainable [9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Regulation - Bank of America emphasizes that loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations are contributing to rising bubble risks, with global policy rates expected to decline further from 4.4% to 3.9% over the next 12 months [10]. - The consideration of regulatory reforms aimed at increasing retail investor participation is noted, with the expectation that more retail investors will lead to greater liquidity, volatility, and bubble risks [11]. - Despite the stock market reaching new highs driven by economic resilience and optimistic corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index has underperformed compared to international peers this year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced in promoting the Renminbi (RMB) in 1949, particularly in Shanghai, where the currency was struggling against the dominance of silver dollars and speculative practices by capitalists [1][3][9]. Economic Context - In the first half of 1949, the Communist Party gained a significant advantage in the civil war, liberating most cities, but the economic transition was fraught with difficulties due to the strong resistance from the bourgeoisie [3]. - The economic turmoil was exacerbated by rampant speculation and manipulation of currency by capitalists, leading to severe inflation and instability in daily life for the populace [5][15]. Challenges to RMB Adoption - Prior to the liberation of Shanghai, the city experienced extreme price fluctuations due to capitalist speculation, which hindered the normal functioning of the economy [5]. - The RMB was nominally recognized but not actively used in transactions, with silver dollars maintaining a dominant position in the market [7][8]. Government Response - Chen Yun emerged as a key figure in addressing the economic crisis, proposing a combination of political and economic strategies to promote the RMB [4][9]. - On June 10, 1949, a coordinated crackdown on speculation was initiated, targeting the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which was a hub for currency manipulation [11]. Measures to Stabilize the Economy - Chen Yun implemented a series of measures to gradually replace silver dollars with RMB, including the introduction of physical bonds to back the currency's value [17]. - The People's Bank introduced a new savings model that allowed citizens to store physical goods instead of currency, mitigating concerns over currency devaluation [20]. - The Shanghai government also ensured that essential goods were made available in the market, mandating that all transactions be conducted in RMB, thereby forcing the conversion of silver dollars into RMB for purchases [21]. Outcomes - These measures effectively reduced speculative activities and facilitated the rapid circulation of RMB, stabilizing the market [19][23].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, highlighted that there is speculative behavior in the market regarding the potential demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 1 - The market's perception of U.S. Treasury bonds is influenced by speculation, which may affect actual demand [1]