Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra anticipates multiple trade agreements to be announced within 48 hours, indicating a busy period ahead [2] - President Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs is nearing its end, with negotiations ongoing with targeted countries [2] - The US stock market opened lower, with the Dow down 0.18%, S&P 500 down 0.3%, and Nasdaq down 0.49%, influenced by Tesla's significant drop of 7.6% due to CEO Musk's political ambitions [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's economist Rajeev Sibal notes that trade negotiations typically take a long time, with US free trade agreements averaging three years to complete [4] - Stifel's strategist Barry Bannister predicts a 12.4% decline in the S&P 500 index in the second half of the year, forecasting a slowdown in core GDP growth and consumer spending [4] - Bannister highlights that the current market environment may lead to a re-emergence of "stagflation trades," similar to the market's performance during the first quarter of 2025 [5] Group 3 - Concerns over inflation and high interest rates are exacerbated by the Trump administration's protectionist policies, with Fed Chair Powell indicating that tariffs have influenced the decision to pause interest rate cuts [5] - In the current market context, Stifel's Bannister favors sectors such as consumer staples, utilities, and medical devices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shell warns that its second-quarter performance in natural gas and oil trading will be significantly lower than the previous three months [1] Group 1 - Shell's second-quarter trading performance is expected to decline compared to the first quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "dividend wave," with over 300 companies distributing more than 200 billion yuan in dividends, indicating a growing awareness of shareholder returns and improved regulatory mechanisms [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) has seen a net value increase of 15.42% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 15.11% since its inception, with an average monthly return of 3.47% during the months it has risen [4]. - The ETF's year-to-date maximum drawdown is 6.18%, indicating lower drawdown risk compared to its benchmark [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has experienced a significant increase in scale, with a growth of 545.32 million yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 3,027.21 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 151.36 million yuan [3]. - The ETF's latest financing buy-in amount is 197.30 million yuan, with a financing balance of 1,466.43 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Index Composition - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index (930955) selects 100 stocks with good liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility, reflecting the overall performance of such securities [5]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 20.14% of the total index weight [6].

贝克休斯油服：美国钻井公司连续第十周削减石油和天然气钻机数。 截至2025年7月4日当周，液化石油气期货主力合约收于4180元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持 12670手。 本周（6月30日-7月4日）市场上看，液化石油气期货周内开盘报4254元/吨，最高触及4268元/吨，最低 下探至4166元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-1.62%。 消息面回顾： 截至2025年7月3日，中国液化气样本企业库容率水平在24.71%，较上期（20250626）缩减0.45个百分 点。 最新数据显示，截至7月3日当周，全国264家液化气生产企业，液化气商品量总量为53.80万吨左右，周 环比降0.57%。 机构观点汇总： 瑞达期货（002961）：美国尚未与几个大型贸易伙伴达成贸易协议，市场担忧需求前景；OPEC+大概 率将在8月延续41.1万桶/日的增产力度；美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降；美国在线钻探油井数量425座，出现明显减少；国际油价小幅下跌。市场燃烧需求持续疲软且价格 跟随成本高位运行引发下游观望。下游按需采购，炼厂库存有所下降；华南市场供需双弱，实际交投平 淡。短线价格预计延续整理。技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy stated that Petrobras, the national oil company, needs to assist in reducing gas prices [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian government is focusing on lowering gas prices to alleviate economic pressure on consumers [1] - Petrobras is expected to play a crucial role in this initiative, indicating potential changes in pricing strategies [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The strategic value of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is being redefined amid a sluggish global economic recovery and deep domestic economic adjustments [1] - Public funds are rapidly increasing their investment in SOEs, with the total scale of SOE-related funds exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The investment logic is shifting from single low valuation to a dual drive of high dividends and hard technology [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry Trends - The dual forces of policy catalysis and industrial upgrading are reshaping the valuation system of SOEs, with a projected asset scale of central enterprises exceeding 90 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.9% year-on-year increase [2] - Strategic emerging industry investments reached 2.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 21.8% increase and surpassing 40% of total investments for the first time [2] - New index tools like the CSI Central Enterprise Innovation-Driven Index and the CSI National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index have emerged to cover core assets in technology innovation and green transformation [2][4] Group 3: Fund Performance and Strategy - The CSI Central Enterprise Innovation-Driven Index has a 12-month dividend yield of 3.59%, outperforming several major indices [3] - The CSI National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index has shown superior performance and risk-return ratios compared to major broad-based indices since its inception [4] - The BoShi Fund's Central Enterprise Innovation-Driven ETF has achieved net value growth rates of 4.06%, 19.89%, and 66.24% over the past year, three years, and five years, respectively, all exceeding benchmark returns [5] Group 4: Investment Philosophy and AI Integration - BoShi Fund emphasizes a "strategic account prioritizing financial account" investment philosophy, recognizing the potential for value re-evaluation of traditional resource factors [8] - The company has initiated AI technology exploration since 2018, establishing an AI laboratory in 2023 to enhance its investment research capabilities [9] - AI-driven investment research is expected to create differentiated alpha factors and improve investment decision-making accuracy [10]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a closing price of 26.29 yuan on July 3, 2025, with a slight decline of 0.04% and a trading volume of 202,600 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 533 million yuan [1]. Trading Information Summary - On July 3, the fund flow for CNOOC showed a net inflow of 26.8 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 5.03% of the total transaction value. In contrast, retail funds experienced a net outflow of 6.84 million yuan, representing 1.28% of the total transaction value [2][4]. Company Announcement Summary - CNOOC announced a final cash dividend of 0.60506 yuan per share (tax included) for the 2024 A-share period. The record date for shareholders is July 10, 2025, and the dividend payment date is July 11, 2025. The total cash dividend distribution amounts to approximately 1.81 billion yuan (tax included) [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has announced a final dividend distribution plan, with a proposed payout of HKD 0.66 per share, translating to RMB 0.60506 per share for A-share holders, following the approval at the annual general meeting on June 5, 2025 [1][2]. Dividend Distribution Plan - The total cash dividend to be distributed to A-share holders amounts to RMB 1,809,129,400.00 (including tax) [2]. - The dividend distribution will be executed based on the A-share count registered on the equity registration date, which is set for July 10, 2025 [2][3]. - The last trading day before the dividend distribution is July 11, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is also July 11, 2025 [3]. Taxation Details - For individual A-share holders, dividends are subject to different tax treatments based on the holding period. Those holding shares for over one year will be exempt from individual income tax, receiving a net dividend of RMB 0.60506 per share [3][4]. - For shares held for less than one year, the tax rate varies: 20% for holdings of one month or less, and 10% for holdings between one month and one year [3][4]. - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will have a 10% withholding tax applied, resulting in a net dividend of RMB 0.54455 per share for those through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [5]. Contact Information - For further inquiries, investors can contact the company's board office at 010-84520883 [5].

Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Energy has been a significant area of cooperation between China and the EU over the past 50 years, with both sides having a mutual need for traditional fossil fuels [1] - Future collaboration in renewable energy is expected to increase, as both Europe and China require substantial imports of oil and natural gas, leading to numerous global partnerships in upstream oil and gas exploration [1] - Companies like Total Energy are already engaged in cooperative exploration projects with China, aiming to lower costs through joint financing and procurement of Chinese products and services [1] Group 2: Agricultural Trade - Several Chinese feed manufacturers have signed an agreement to purchase 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal, marking the first order since the 2019 agreement allowing such imports [1] - The transaction price for the soybean meal is reported to be $360 per ton, including costs and freight, with expected delivery in September to Guangdong, China [1] - This order is viewed as a "test case," with expectations for more transactions if it passes China's inspection and quarantine [1] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - The trade war initiated during Trump's first term has led China to reduce its reliance on the US, with significant decreases in imports of LNG, oil, meat, and soybeans from the US [3] - China has successfully negotiated contracts with other countries to replace US imports, causing anxiety in the US, particularly among industries reliant on the Chinese market [3] - The ongoing trade tensions have made US businesses wary, as escalating tariffs could significantly increase annual expenses for American households [3] Group 4: EU's Position - The EU has recognized that the US may exploit its alliance, prompting a reevaluation of its cooperation with the US against China [6] - European leaders, such as French President Macron, advocate for a "third way" that avoids taking sides in the US-China rivalry, aiming to establish a new alliance [4] - The EU's potential distancing from the US could limit America's strategic options and undermine its isolationist policies [6]

Industry Activity - North American market is under pressure, with a projected average of 558 land drilling rigs in the U.S. by Q2 2025, a 2% year-over-year decline, and an annual estimate of 544 rigs in the U.S. and 190 in Canada [1] - International drilling activity is expected to average 887 rigs in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline, influenced by reduced activities in Mexico, West Africa, and the Middle East [1] - Demand for fracturing horsepower in the U.S. Permian Basin is projected at 6.62 million horsepower, a 15% year-over-year decline, indicating pressure on unconventional oil and gas development in North America [1] Company Performance - Schlumberger (SLB) is expected to achieve Q2 2025 revenues of $8.473 billion and EBITDA of $2.021 billion, with annual revenues and EBITDA projected at $35.81 billion and $4.8 billion respectively, showcasing resilience in a complex market [1] - Ensign Energy Services is forecasted to have annual revenues of $1.59 billion and EBITDA of $385 million, while Liberty Energy is expected to report revenues of $999 million and EBITDA of $633 million, highlighting the performance disparity in different segments [1] - Subsea 7 leads in offshore and international services with projected revenues of $7.188 billion and EBITDA of $1.429 billion, while TechnipFMC is expected to report revenues of $9.994 billion and EBITDA of $1.76 billion, reflecting advantages in global positioning [1] Industry Trends - Strong demand for natural gas is anticipated, supported by the advancement of LNG Canada projects, despite pressures from oil price fluctuations on drilling and completion activities [2] - International markets may see slight declines in overall activity, but there is growth potential in offshore and international drilling, particularly in deepwater and unconventional resource development [2] - Technological advancements, such as automated drilling and digital oilfield management, are crucial for industry transformation, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [2] Investment Ratings - RBC has assigned "Outperform" and "Sector Perform" ratings to several companies, setting target prices for Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton at $48, $46, and $28 respectively [3] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with technological advantages, cost control capabilities, and market diversity, as these firms are more likely to achieve excess returns amid industry volatility [3] Conclusion - The oil and gas industry faces challenges from price volatility and market competition, but technological advancements, rising natural gas demand, and international market potential present structural growth opportunities [4] - Companies with core competencies are expected to achieve sustainable development through innovation and global expansion in the context of energy transition [4]