Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current urea is at a low valuation, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after falling to a five-year low of 1,450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Further price drops may reduce upstream production willingness and accelerate enterprise clearance. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Two potential driving factors to watch are the renovation of old chemical industry facilities on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [3][38]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - From mid-September to October 20, urea futures prices oscillated downward, weakening significantly after the holiday. Due to unchanged export policies, domestic agricultural demand could not bear the high supply pressure, causing spot prices to decline. The main contract price once fell below 1,600 yuan/ton and is currently in a low-level oscillation [3][8][38]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis first weakened and then strengthened, and the spread oscillated downward. The 01 basis weakened first and then strengthened, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price due to high supply and inventory pressures. The 01 - 05 spread oscillated downward, with greater pressure on the near - month contract. On September 15, the basis was -43 yuan/ton, weakened to -80 yuan/ton on October 13, and rebounded to -42 yuan/ton on October 20. The UR01 - 05 spread was -48 yuan/ton on September 15 and -70 yuan/ton on October 20 [10]. 3. Supply - Side Analysis - **Supply**: Upstream enterprises are experiencing slight losses, and production willingness is declining. Compared with the rebound in coal prices since July, urea prices have been relatively weak, leading to a continuous decline in upstream profits to a low level. As of the week of October 16, the weekly urea production rate in China was 80.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.58 percentage points. The gas - head production rate was 71.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.94 percentage points. The weekly coal - head urea production was 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons. The estimated daily production is expected to remain at a high level of 180,000 - 190,000 tons next week [13]. - **Inventory**: Inventory remains at a high level. Due to continuous high supply, domestic urea inventory has been at a five - year high. Since June, there has been obvious export port concentration, which has alleviated domestic supply - demand pressure to some extent. However, with no further changes in export policies, market expectations for exports in the fourth quarter are poor. As of the week of October 16, the weekly enterprise inventory was 1.421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 83,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 457,000 tons. The weekly port inventory was 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 520,000 tons. Without new export quotas, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand may lead to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, suppressing spot prices [19]. - **Old Facilities**: The capacity of facilities over 20 years old accounts for about 20%. Five ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice on the evaluation of old petrochemical and chemical facilities, and some provinces have started the investigation. Currently, the total production capacity of urea enterprises is 76.93 million tons/year, and the capacity of facilities put into operation before May 30, 2005, is 15.28 million tons/year, accounting for about 20%. If the renovation of old facilities is carried out, it may provide upward momentum for urea prices, and the inventory consumption rate and policy implementation intensity will affect the upward space [23][24]. 4. Demand - Side Analysis - **Export**: Exports increased significantly in September. Since June, domestic urea exports have been relaxed, and the export volume has increased significantly. The export windows from September to November are crucial. The first two batches of export quotas totaled about 3.2 million tons, and about 2.8 million tons were exported from May to September. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign urea, and domestic enterprises have strong export motivation. Whether new quotas will be issued in October - November is the key [26][29]. - **Domestic**: Agricultural demand support is weakening. The fourth quarter is the off - season for domestic demand. Rainy weather in early October delayed agricultural fertilizer demand, and market transactions remained light in late October. The main subsequent demand is winter storage, but domestic storage enterprises may act cautiously due to the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. As of October 16, the weekly inventory of compound fertilizers was 790,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. The weekly production was 754,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 103,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 316,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of melamine was 49.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.47 percentage points [30]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is the same as the content in the "Market Review" section. The current urea is at a low valuation, and the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. The potential driving factors are the renovation of old facilities on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [38]. 6. Strategy Recommendation - Sell out - of - the - money put options [3][38][39]

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需低位支撑 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，整体偏强。现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。基 本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置检修与复产并行，日产并无明显变化，但同比去年 偏低，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端走强，前期尿素价格下跌至水煤 浆成本线后出现反弹。需求端，市场成交氛围低迷，秋季肥收尾为主，复合肥工 厂降低开工负荷，终端走货以成品库存消化为主，秋季肥逐渐收尾，东北地区开 工推迟至十一月附近，复合肥开工负荷难有大量提升。整体来说，盘面止跌回稳， 天气目前转好，秋季肥收尾过程中，短期农需有低位支撑，但内需难以消化高位 库存，行情弱稳为主。 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿 素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1597 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Salt City Market Supervision Administration has released a report on the quality supervision and inspection of various products, including fertilizers, indicating that all 25 batches of fertilizer products tested were found to be compliant with quality standards [3][4]. Group 1: Product Quality Inspection - The inspection covered 30 types of products, including safety helmets, floor drains, electric mosquito swatters, and explosion-proof electrical appliances [3]. - A total of 25 batches of fertilizer products were tested, and none were found to be non-compliant [3][4]. Group 2: Company and Product Details - The report includes a list of companies and specific products that were part of the quality inspection, detailing product names, brands, specifications, production dates, and manufacturers [4][5]. - Notable companies listed include Wuxi Poly Fertilizer Co., Jiangsu Shuangchang Fertilizer Co., and Jiangsu Shengjiu Agricultural Chemical Co., among others [4][5].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an energy and chemical research report on urea dated October 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - In the futures market, urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1609 (+2/+0.12%) [3] - In the spot market, the ex - factory prices were stable with a downward trend and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1490 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1400 - 1470 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On October 21, the daily urea production in the industry was 182,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 6,600 tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 77.99%, a decrease of 6.83% compared with 84.82% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - The market sentiment was average, and the ex - factory prices of urea in mainstream regions declined with mediocre trading. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices led the decline, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased slightly, with sufficient raw material inventory, high finished - product inventory, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, the ex - factory prices followed the increase, traders were on the sidelines, the order volume decreased, and the trading weakened. In the surrounding areas of the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were weakly stable, the market atmosphere cooled, the demand in Northeast China was sluggish, and the new order trading was mediocre [5] - Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production decreased to around 182,000 tons. The Indian tender result was about to be released, but the export window was about to close, having limited impact on the domestic market sentiment. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China basically ended, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, the available inventory days of urea were more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was not high. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 170,000 tons to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited, the agricultural demand ended, the compound fertilizer had not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment was still sluggish. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was still large, the relaxation of domestic exports provided some support to the domestic spot market sentiment. After some regions lowered the ex - factory prices, the order - receiving of manufacturers was still weak. The fundamentals were still relatively loose, and a bearish rebound strategy was recommended [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, short positions are recommended - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines - For options, stay on the sidelines [6] Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of urea daily production, operating rate, coal - based and gas - based operating rates, production, enterprise inventory, port inventory in different regions, compound fertilizer operating rate, compound fertilizer factory inventory, melamine operating rate, and Northeast China's arrival volume from 2022 to 2025 [10][11]

（文章来源：商务部网站） 根据《中华人民共和国货物进出口管理条例》《化肥进口关税配额管理暂行办法》，商务部制定了 《2026年化肥进口关税配额总量、分配原则及相关程序》，现予公布，请遵照执行。2026年化肥进口关 税配额总量为1365万吨。其中，尿素330万吨；磷酸氢二铵690万吨；复合肥345万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot low - price transactions improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised prices, transactions cooled down and prices were slightly lowered again. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture, the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is coming to an end, the operating rate is decreasing, and the compound fertilizers needed for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to - late October. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. Currently, inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast gradually start production, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast. Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still export windows. Urea exports in September were 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. The port has both container gathering and departure. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 25 suppliers were received, with a total of 3.66 million tons of supply. The lowest CFR price is $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast. Currently, the urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to the subsequent urea export trends [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On October 20, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,600 yuan/ton (-2); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,550 yuan/ton (0); the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,550 yuan/ton (-10); the price of small - particle urea in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton (-8); the basis in Henan was - 50 yuan/ton (+2); the basis in Jiangsu was - 40 yuan/ton (+2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of October 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6154 million tons (+171,500 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 20 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The urea export profit was 983 yuan/ton (+0). India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 25 suppliers were received, with a total of 3.66 million tons of supply. The lowest CFR price is $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of October 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18% (-1.32%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%); the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (-0.29) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6154 million tons (+171,500 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea prices have been oscillating at a low level recently, and the spot market remains dull. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is at a low level, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see (viewpoint score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, UR01 in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 was 1675 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18%; UR09 was 1708 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. In Shandong, it was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Hebei, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.63%; in the Northeast and Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton and 1560 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite price in Henan was 1030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 3.00%; in Shanxi, it remained unchanged at 880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 5067 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 125 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. 3.3. Important Information - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 366 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast. In September 2025, urea imports were 76.08 tons, a 2.01% month - on - month decrease; from January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1977.06 tons, a 49.06% year - on - year decrease. In September, urea exports were 137.12 million tons, a 72.12% month - on - month increase; from January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 281.23 million tons, a 1007.70% year - on - year increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fertilizer industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a significant decline in urea prices and increased losses for companies due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Urea prices in North China fell below 1600 RMB per ton in September, with further declines observed post-National Day, reaching 1500-1570 RMB in Shandong and 1490-1520 RMB in Shanxi, marking over a 20% year-on-year drop [1][2]. - The overall urea production capacity in China is projected to reach 7900 million tons by the end of the year, with an expected oversupply of 5-6 million tons [2][6]. - The agricultural demand for urea is limited, with a decrease in summer grain planting area and a slowdown in industrial demand due to the real estate sector's downturn [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of urea enterprises is approximately 82.39%, down 3.64 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in urea inventory, reaching 145.98 million tons as of October 5 [4][5]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with downstream purchasing activity low and a lack of strong demand leading to continuous price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Export Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission has adjusted fertilizer export policies, allowing for a total of 450 million tons to be exported by the end of September, but the allocation of export quotas has favored storage enterprises over production companies [6][7]. - Companies have suggested optimizing the export quota distribution to increase the share for production enterprises and dynamically adjusting export policies based on market conditions [7].

天眼查App显示，近日，内蒙古施尔丰化肥有限公司成立，法定代表人为房旭光，注册资本536.18万人 民币，经营范围为许可项目：肥料生产；农药批发；农药零售。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批 准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：化肥销售；农 作物种子经营（仅限不再分装的包装种子）；初级农产品收购；农副产品销售；普通货物仓储服务（不 含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；非居住房地产租赁；住房租赁；机械设备租赁；农业机械租赁； 农业机械服务；饲料原料销售；豆类种植；谷物种植；薯类种植；中草药种植；产业用纺织制成品销 售；草种植；园艺产品种植；农作物病虫害防治服务；林业有害生物防治服务；农业专业及辅助性活 动；城市绿化管理；农业园艺服务；智能农业管理；农业生产托管服务；灌溉服务；食用农产品初加 工；农作物秸秆处理及加工利用服务；畜牧专业及辅助性活动；园林绿化工程施工；技术服务、技术开 发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开 展经营活动）。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Batian Co., announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a payout of 1.6 RMB per 10 shares to all shareholders, including tax [2] - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for October 27, 2025, while the ex-dividend date is October 28, 2025 [2]