Core Insights - The article invites participants to the "Chief Strategy Forum Annual Offline Salon: Anticipating the 14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on investment opportunities and challenges in the changing economic landscape [3][4]. Event Details - The event will take place on December 20 at the Shanghai Yinke Financial Center, featuring discussions on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and investment strategies [3]. - Notable speakers include Professor Wei Zongyou from Fudan University, Chief Economist Xiao Lisheng from Jiufang Zhitu, and experts from Morgan Asset Management and Zheshang Securities [3][6]. Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes keynote speeches on international relations and China's economic outlook, followed by strategy and industry roundtables [6][7]. - Topics will cover the spring market trends for 2026 and the rebound logic in the electric and new energy sectors, as well as investment strategies in the computer industry under AI paradigm shifts [6][7]. Platform Overview - The "Chief Strategy Forum" is a high-end financial live broadcast program that regularly engages with investors, featuring insights from top analysts and industry experts [10]. - The forum aims to provide a professional bridge for investors to understand market trends and investment strategies [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting a target price of RMB 57.47, which represents a 15% upside from the current price [4][11]. Core Insights - The company's "Air-Ground Integrated Smart Inspection Solution" has been recognized as a successful high-growth case, showcasing the deepening integration of AI technology with industry [12]. - The "AI+Robot" air-ground inspection solution is expanding and is expected to become the company's third growth curve, featuring a self-developed intelligence model and a three-layer architecture that enhances operational efficiency [13]. - The "AI+Charging" solution has become essential in North America, addressing a significant power gap and being implemented in six benchmark projects, thus driving the energy transition in the region [14]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of RMB 3,251 million in 2023, growing to RMB 8,465 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.5% in 2023 and 23.1% in 2027 [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from RMB 179 million in 2023 to RMB 1,634 million in 2027, with a significant increase of 257.6% in 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.27 in 2023 to RMB 2.44 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [3].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [39]. Core Insights - The North Exchange market has shown a significant recovery, with the average daily trading volume of all A-shares reaching 19.51 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 40.6%. The North Index 50 rose by 2.79% during the same period [1][7]. - Key stocks that performed well include Tianli Composite (up 117.2%), Dapeng Industrial (up 51.1%), and Chicheng Co. (up 40.7%). Conversely, stocks with the largest declines included *ST Guandao (down 77.2%) and Hongxi Technology (down 12.4%) [1][16]. - Recent policy developments, including a meeting of the Central Political Bureau focusing on economic work for 2026 and the announcement allowing Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China, are expected to influence market sentiment positively [1][19][23]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume reached 19.51 billion yuan, marking a 40.6% increase from the previous week. The North Index 50 saw a rise of 2.79%, with an average turnover rate of 2.6% [1][7][34]. Key News and Policies - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the importance of economic stability and growth for 2026, while the U.S. government's policy shift regarding AI chip sales to China is expected to impact market dynamics positively [19][23]. Core Driving Factors - The macroeconomic environment has improved, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and domestic policies focusing on enhancing capital market functions. This has led to increased risk appetite among investors [32][33]. - The performance of new stocks has been strong, with significant interest in newly listed companies, indicating a healthy market for initial public offerings [33]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Future investment strategies should focus on three areas: the value of weight stocks in the North Index 50, companies with strong performance and R&D investment, and sectors benefiting from policy support such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robots [2][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 23.80 based on an 80x PE for 2026 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning to an enterprise-level AI digital product and solution provider, with accelerated implementations and strengthened partnerships with major internet companies, indicating strong potential in the B-end AI market [5][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.439 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 136 million, up 19.22% year-on-year [11]. - The AI application business generated approximately RMB 100 million in revenue in Q3 2025, contributing to a cumulative revenue of about RMB 210 million for the first three quarters [12]. - The company has a diverse client base for its enterprise-level AI digital products, including notable companies such as Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline and Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development [12][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: RMB 2,980 million, RMB 3,235 million, RMB 3,402 million, RMB 3,783 million, and RMB 4,307 million, respectively, with growth rates of -0.9%, 8.6%, 5.2%, 11.2%, and 13.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to improve significantly from a loss of RMB 25 million in 2023A to a profit of RMB 373 million by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 842.3% in 2024A [4]. - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 2.13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, with key targets including Hand Enterprise, Wuxi Unicomp Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Hehe Information, Hikvision, Newland Digital Technology, Autel, and Hygon, with Dawning Information Industry as a related target [3][8]. Core Insights - Recent developments in the tech sector indicate that AI is advancing in both specialization and terminalization, exemplified by OpenAI's breakthroughs with the GPT-5.2 series and Zhipu's efforts to popularize cellphone AI [3][8]. - The USA has conditionally approved the export of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips to China, but this comes with significant restrictions, including generational locks and a requirement for a 25% sales commission to the US Treasury [3][8]. - In the commercial space sector, the Long March 12 rocket's frequent launches demonstrate efficient deployment capabilities, and the establishment of the "Space Computing Joint Laboratory" enhances domestic capabilities in space technology [3][8]. Summary by Sections AI Technology Developments - AI technology has made significant strides, with OpenAI's GPT-5.2 achieving expert-level performance in GDPval benchmarks, enhancing capabilities in long document reasoning and complex tool usage [3][8]. - Zhipu AI has open-sourced its cellphone project Open-AutoGLM, allowing AI to interact with mobile screens for cross-application tasks, significantly lowering development barriers for high-performance AI assistants [3][8]. Geopolitical and Supply Chain Considerations - The conditional approval for NVIDIA's chip exports reflects a complex geopolitical landscape, with the US aiming to protect national security while providing limited options for Chinese markets [3][8]. - The stringent conditions attached to the chip exports are expected to accelerate China's pursuit of domestic alternatives, fostering the growth of local AI computing capabilities [3][8]. Commercial Space Advancements - The Long March 12 rocket successfully launched 16 low-orbit satellites within 32 days, showcasing China's efficient deployment capabilities for large satellite constellations [3][8]. - The "Space Computing Joint Laboratory," established in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Guoxing Aerospace, focuses on developing autonomous space computing chips and in-orbit maintenance technologies [3][8].

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 交易信心有所提振，后市仍将震荡上行 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251215 要点 本周市场核心观点与市场复盘： 本周（2025.12.08-2025.12.12，下同）A 股震荡上行，市场量能有所提振。截 至周五（2025.12.12，下同），主要宽基指数量能择时指标均转为看多信号。沪 深 300、中证 500 指数时序波动率、横截面波动率均有提升，Alpha 环境好转。 资金面方面，融资增加额环比提升，资金交易情绪积极。 12 月中央经济工作会议进一步提振市场信心，资金面叠加情绪指标改善下，市 场或进一步震荡上行。风格方面，本周市场大市值风格显著、基本面因子表现相 对占优，市场或逐步实现资金面驱动向基本面驱动的过渡。中长线持续看好"红 利+科技"配置主线。 本周上证综指下跌 0.34%，上证 50 下跌 0.25%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，中证 500 上涨 1.01%，中证 1000 上涨 0.39%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，北证 50 指数 上涨 2.79%。 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数和上证 50 指数处于估 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The computer industry has shown steady revenue growth and improved profit margins, with total revenue reaching 939.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [11] - The software development sub-industry has seen significant profit improvements, while the computer equipment sub-industry remains relatively high in terms of market sentiment [11] - The industry has experienced a volatile upward trend since the beginning of 2025, with the computer industry index rising by 18.54% as of November 28, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points [18] Group 2: Algorithm and Applications - The global landscape of large models is rapidly evolving, with significant competition among closed-source models from companies like Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI, while domestic open-source models like Kimi K2 and MiniMax-M2 maintain a leading position [27][30] - The focus of large model applications is shifting towards programming, enterprise services, and office productivity tools, indicating a convergence in the market [42] - The integration of multi-modal capabilities and AI agents is becoming a competitive focal point in the large model market, expanding the boundaries of model tasks [32][34] Group 3: Computing Power - The AI computing power market is experiencing high demand, with the global AI server market projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2028, while China's market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30.6% during the same period [10] - The domestic AI computing power chip industry is poised for growth due to strong policy support and increasing downstream demand, with a clear trend towards self-sufficiency [10][22] Group 4: Intelligent Driving - The penetration rate of Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) features is increasing, indicating a rapid commercialization of the intelligent driving industry in China, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - Major players like Tesla and Xpeng are advancing their intelligent driving technologies, with significant updates and new model releases enhancing their market positions [4][5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the computer industry, highlighting investment opportunities in AI computing power, algorithms, and intelligent driving sectors [5] - Specific stock recommendations include companies like Zhongke Chuangda, Haiguang Information, and Industrial Fulian in the AI computing power segment, and companies like Daotong Technology and Kingsoft Office in the AI algorithm and application space [5][6]

分行业看，11月份，41个大类行业中有30个行业增加值同比增长。其中，煤炭开采和洗选业增长7.5%，石油和天然气开采业增长5.1%，农副食品加工业增 长1.7%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业下降0.6%，纺织业增长1.8%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长6.7%，非金属矿物制品业下降1.8%，黑色金属冶炼和压延 加工业增长0.9%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长4.8%，通用设备制造业增长7.5%，专用设备制造业增长4.8%，汽车制造业增长11.9%，铁路、船舶、航空 航天和其他运输设备制造业增长11.9%，电气机械和器材制造业增长4.4%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长9.2%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长 4.2%。 分产品看，11月份，规模以上工业623种产品中有310种产品产量同比增长。其中，钢材11591万吨，同比下降2.6%；水泥15434万吨，下降8.2%；十种有色 金属699万吨，增长4.7%；乙烯309万吨，增长7.3%；汽车351.9万辆，增长2.4%，其中新能源汽车184.1万辆，增长17.0%；发电量7792亿千瓦时，增长 2.7%；原油加工量6083万吨，增长3.9%。 11月份，规模以上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (December 8 - December 12), the A - share market was volatile. Two important meetings boosted market risk appetite, and trading volume increased. AI hardware and commercial aerospace led the gains, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors lagged. The bond market slightly recovered, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield at 1.84% on Friday, down 0.84bp from the previous week. The convertible bond market had most individual bonds closing lower, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.20% for the week, the median price up 0.10%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity down 0.35%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 2.20% compared to the previous week [1][6][7]. - Some issuers showed a strong willingness to convert. The convertible bond market followed the stock market's volatility last week. Despite the significant adjustment of the micro - cap stock index, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed slightly higher, showing strong resilience and improved trading volume. Several issuers of near - maturing convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and the pricing after the proposed downward revisions varied based on the remaining term and industry fundamentals [2][15]. - Looking ahead, with the end - of - year important meetings and the Fed's rate cut settled, the market will enter a policy vacuum period. Relative return investors are advised to make small - position balanced allocations of non - redeemable and appropriately - priced equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, semiconductor equipment and materials for domestic substitution, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute return investors should focus on high - volatility stocks under 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations in sectors like two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding [2][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Focus (December 8 - December 12) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion on Monday and Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% on Monday, fell 0.37% on Tuesday, fell 0.23% on Wednesday, fell 0.7% on Thursday, and rose 0.41% on Friday. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39% on Monday, fell 0.39% on Tuesday, rose 0.29% on Wednesday, fell 1.27% on Thursday, and rose 0.84% on Friday. The ChiNext Index rose 2.6% on Monday, rose 0.61% on Tuesday, fell 0.02% on Wednesday, fell 1.41% on Thursday, and rose 0.97% on Friday [1][6]. - Most Shenwan primary industries closed lower. Communication (6.27%), national defense and military industry (2.80%), electronics (2.63%), machinery and equipment (1.38%), and power equipment (1.19%) led the gains, while coal (-3.64%), petroleum and petrochemical (-3.52%), steel (-2.89%), and real estate (-2.62%) lagged [7]. Bond Market - After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the moderately loose monetary policy remained unchanged, and inflation data showed a continued price improvement trend. The bond market slightly recovered, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield at 1.84% on Friday, down 0.84bp from the previous week [1][7]. Convertible Bond Market - Most individual convertible bonds closed lower. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% for the week, the median price rose 0.10%, and the arithmetic average parity fell 0.35%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 2.20%. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by +2.09%, -1.73%, and +0.20%, respectively, and were at the 94%, 96%, and 89% quantiles since 2023 [1][7]. - Most convertible bond industries closed lower. Building materials (+6.14%), national defense and military industry (+4.27%), power equipment (+1.25%), and beauty care (+0.94%) led the gains, while social services (-2.32%), coal (-2.12%), commercial and retail (-1.52%), and basic chemicals (-1.31%) lagged [8]. - The top - rising individual convertible bonds were Zai 22 (commercial aerospace), Huamao (computing power), Weidao (semiconductor equipment), Jize (green alcohol), and Hangyu (commercial aerospace). The top - falling individual convertible bonds were Yingbo (low - altitude economy & announced strong redemption), Hongtu (satellite application), Huarui (CNC cutting tools), Sanfang (polyester chips), and Yake (automobile aluminum) [1][10]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 285.692 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 57.138 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [13]. Valuation - As of December 12, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 45.18%, 34.97%, 27.88%, 20.1%, 10.88%, and 13.62%, respectively, at the 94%/90%, 94%/95%, 94%/95%, 91%/90%, 70%/53%, and 97%/98% quantiles since 2010/2021. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for parities below 70 yuan was -3.48%, at the 2%/6% quantiles since 2010/2021. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 43.46%, at the 88%/91% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the convertible bond's implied volatility and the stock's long - term actual volatility was 2.31%, at the 84%/85% quantiles since 2010/2021 [16]. Primary Market Tracking New Issuance and Listing - Last week (December 8 - December 12), Aohong, Shenyu, Tianzhun, and Dingjie convertible bonds announced issuance, while Maolai and Ruike convertible bonds were listed. - Aohong Convertible Bond (111024.SH): The underlying stock is Aohong Electronics (605058.SH), in the electronics industry. The issuance scale is 580 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for the construction of a production base in Thailand [23]. - Shenyu Convertible Bond (123262.SZ): The underlying stock is Shenyu Co., Ltd. (300563.SZ), in the communication industry. The issuance scale is 500 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for the construction of data lines in the intelligent field [24]. - Tianzhun Convertible Bond (118062.SH): The underlying stock is Tianzhun Technology (688003.SH), in the machinery and equipment industry. The issuance scale is 872 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for R & D and industrialization projects in industrial vision equipment, semiconductor metrology equipment, and intelligent driving and embodied intelligent controllers [25][26]. - Dingjie Convertible Bond (123263.SZ): The underlying stock is Dingjie Digital Intelligence (300378.SZ), in the computer industry. The issuance scale is 828 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA. The funds will be used for the Dingjie Digital Intelligence Ecological Empowerment Platform project and to supplement working capital [27]. - Maolai Convertible Bond (118061.SH): The underlying stock is Maolai Optics (688502.SH), in the electronics industry. The issuance scale is 563 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+. The funds will be used for ultra - precision optical production and processing projects, ultra - precision optical technology R & D centers, and to supplement working capital [28]. - Ruike Convertible Bond (118060.SH): The underlying stock is Ruike Da (688800.SH), in the electronics industry. The issuance scale is 1 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for the renovation and upgrade of high - frequency and high - speed connection systems, intelligent energy connection systems, and to supplement working capital [29]. Future Issuance and Listing - As of December 12, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings for the next week (December 15 - December 19). - Last week, one company (Shuangle Co., Ltd.) was approved for registration, two companies (Tonglian Precision and Xianghe Industry) passed the listing committee review, three companies (Suzhou Tianmai, Baoti Co., Ltd., and Zhongqi Co., Ltd.) were accepted by the exchange, and two companies (Hubei Yihua and Zhaomin Technology) passed the shareholders' meeting. There were no new board - proposed enterprises. - As of now, there are 92 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 146.43 billion yuan, including 3 approved for registration with a total scale of 2.5 billion yuan and 9 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 9.99 billion yuan [30].

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...