2025 年 12 月 31 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】关注春季行情——2026 年 1 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 1 月 A 股金股组合：顺络电子、中际旭创、新易盛、中芯国际、中国石油、 中国石化、海尔智家、工商银行、紫金矿业、上海临港。 2026 年 1 月港股金股组合： 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、中芯国际、华虹半导体、越疆、金风科技。 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局——南 向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情 绪与套利驱动转向以基本面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演 "定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演进为"金融+科技+消费"的多 元格局。2025 年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 行业研究 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3965.12 | 0.00 | | 沪深 300 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 （张宇生/王国兴） 2025-12-30 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局 ——南向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情绪与套利驱动转向以基本 面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演"定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演 进为"金融+科技+消费"的多元格局。2025年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 （祁嫣然/陈颖）2025-12-30 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【策略】关注春季行情——2026年1月A股及港股月度金股组 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 南向资金：规模加速扩张，市场定价力量显著增强 资金规模与持股占比的结构性提升：自沪深港通开通以来，南向资金累计净流入超 5 万亿港元，截至 2025 年 11 月末，持股市值升至 6.27 万亿港元，占港股总市值 13.05%，创历史新高，显示境内资金跨境配置意 愿长期增强。 二级行业层面，资金风格由价值取向向科技与新消费主导的成长风格演进，并在近年叠加防御与资源因 子，形成多因子并存格局。 净流入结构与持仓变化高度一致，再度验证南向资金已由套利型跨境资金成长为具备前瞻性与稳定性的长 期配置力量，对港股中长期定价的影响持续提升。 2025 年以来南向资金配置格局 总量层面：净流入加速，定价权持续上移。截至 2025 年 11 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 金融工程 核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局 ——南向资金跟踪 要点 南向资金：规模加速扩张，市场定价力量显著增强 资金规模与持股占比的结构性提升：自沪深港通开通以来，南向资金累计净流 入超 5 万亿港元，截至 2025 年 11 月末，持股市值升至 6.27 万亿港元，占港 股总市值 13.05%，创历史新高，显示境内资金跨境配置意愿长期增强。 配置节奏显著加快，市场话语权持续上升：2025 年前三季度净买入规模已超越 2024 年全年水平，配置节奏为近年罕见。南向资金成交额占港股市场总成交额 的比例快速跃升至 50%以上，市场影响力持续上升。 从"情绪溢出"到"价值驱动"：资金增配行为与 AH 溢价指数呈逆向校准， 南向资金正从博弈交易者转变为港股市场的定价锚，在行业轮动、板块配置及 市场估值形成中发挥核心作用。 南向资金行业配置的长期演进 一级行业层面，由早期的"金融与地产主导型"向以"金融+科技+消费"为核 心、医疗与公用事业等为补充的多元化结构演进，配置更加均衡、稳定。 二级行业层面，资金风格由价值取向向科技与新消费主导的成长风格演进，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading style of southbound funds has shifted from aggressive investments in technology stocks to defensive investments in dividend stocks following tariff disruptions and the first-quarter earnings reports of internet companies [1][5]. Summary by Sections Southbound Fund Activity - From April 27 to May 27, southbound funds purchased dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, amounting to HKD 24.9 billion [2]. - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) reached a new high, with a year-to-date increase of 7.9% and an overall return of nearly 10% when including dividends [2]. Shift in Investment Focus - In the first quarter, the top ten net inflows for southbound funds were primarily in Hang Seng Technology stocks [4]. - Since April, following tariff tensions, the top ten inflows have shifted to high-dividend stocks [5]. Market Conditions - The decline in internet companies' AI revenue and increased competition among major players like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba have led to reduced inflows into technology stocks [6]. - The domestic interest rate cuts and the lowest 10-year government bond yield at 1.65% have prompted a preference for high-dividend stocks as risk appetite decreases [7][9]. Insurance Capital Involvement - The recent trend shows that the inflow of funds into dividend stocks is primarily driven by insurance capital, which seeks to increase allocations to high-yield stocks in a declining interest rate environment [11]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to increase equity allocations, with the cap on equity assets raised from 30% to 35% or higher [11]. Future Projections - Goldman Sachs estimates that southbound funds will have a net inflow of approximately HKD 100 billion into dividend stocks for the year, based on current trends [17]. - The insurance sector is expected to release about RMB 646.1 billion in incremental funds, with 20%-30% likely to flow into the Hong Kong stock market [18][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its performance, particularly in relation to Southbound capital flows and the differences in financial reporting between Hong Kong and A-shares [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Increased Southbound Capital Allocation**: Southbound capital's allocation to Hong Kong stocks has significantly increased, rising from 14.5% in Q4 2024 to 19.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a growing interest in the Hong Kong market [2]. - **Complexity in Financial Reporting**: The differences in fiscal year reporting and the non-mandatory nature of quarterly reports in Hong Kong complicate performance analysis. Companies can choose their fiscal year start date, leading to inconsistencies [3][4]. - **Performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect**: In 2024, the overall profitability of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks outperformed A-shares, with revenue growth of 2.4% and profit growth of 7.4%, indicating strong growth potential [1][6]. - **Weak Capital Expenditure**: Hong Kong companies experienced a significant negative growth in capital expenditure compared to 2023, reflecting a weak overall expansion sentiment in China, which may limit future profitability [1][8]. - **Promising Sectors**: The financial, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceutical sectors showed strong growth potential, with notable contributions to net profit margins and asset turnover [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Leading Companies**: The concentration of leading companies in Hong Kong significantly affects performance analysis. For instance, Tencent contributed nearly 25% to year-on-year performance growth, while Vanke negatively impacted results by about 20% [10]. - **Sector Performance**: Key sectors showing improvement in both revenue and profit growth include TMT, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors performed poorly [9][11]. - **Public Fund Holdings**: In Q1 2025, public funds increased their holdings in sectors such as retail (Alibaba), electronics (SMIC, Xiaomi), media (Tencent), pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals (Zijin Mining), indicating institutional confidence in these areas [12]. This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the Hong Kong stock market and the implications for investors.