Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline despite strong earnings reports from major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - On July 31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 330.30 points (0.74%) to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 dropped by 23.51 points (0.37%) to 6,339.39, marking its third consecutive day of decline, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 7.23 points (0.03%) to 21,122.45 [1]. - In July, the S&P 500 rose by 2.17%, the Nasdaq increased by 3.70%, and the Dow saw a slight increase of 0.08%, with the S&P 500 and Dow recording their third consecutive month of gains [2]. Sector Performance - Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed lower, with the healthcare sector leading the decline at 2.9%, followed by real estate at 1.7%, and other sectors such as materials, financials, energy, consumer discretionary, and technology all falling over 1% [3]. Notable Stock Movements - Among popular Chinese stocks, Qudian rose approximately 9%, NIO increased by 8%, and Pinduoduo's ADR saw a slight uptick, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.5% and accumulating a 1.1% increase in July [4]. - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla down 3.38%, Google A down 2.36%, Nvidia down 0.78%, Apple down 0.71%, while Amazon rose by 1.70% [5]. Earnings Reports - Microsoft shares increased by 3.9% after reporting Q4 revenue of $76.44 billion, exceeding market expectations of $73.89 billion, with intelligent cloud revenue at $29.88 billion, also above expectations. Azure's business grew by 39% year-over-year, leading Microsoft to join the "four trillion dollar club" [6][7]. - Meta's stock surged by 11.2% as the company projected Q3 revenue between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, significantly above analyst estimates of $46.2 billion, indicating a recovery in generative AI advertising [8]. - Apple reported Q3 revenue of $94.04 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations of $89.53 billion, with iPhone revenue at $44.58 billion and Mac revenue at $8.05 billion, both exceeding forecasts [8]. - Amazon's Q2 revenue reached $167.7 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, significantly above the expected $162.09 billion, with an EPS of $1.68, far exceeding the anticipated $1.33. However, its Q3 operating profit forecast was slightly below analyst expectations [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.8% year-over-year in June, above the expected 2.7%, while overall PCE increased to 2.6%, marking the second consecutive month of growth [9]. - Labor costs increased by 0.9% month-over-month, and initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, slightly below expectations [9]. - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming July non-farm payroll report and tariff negotiations, with comments from President Trump indicating no extension for "lagging" trade partners [10].

Group 1 - Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings, leading to significant pre-market gains of 9% and 11.13% respectively, with a combined market value increase of $537.6 billion [1][3] - The Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 1.40%, S&P 500 futures by 0.96%, and Dow futures by 0.26%, indicating a return of volatility in the market [1] - The upcoming earnings reports from Apple and Amazon are anticipated, with their combined market capitalization reaching $5.5 trillion [3] Group 2 - The U.S. June PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with the core PCE index increasing by 2.8%, both exceeding expectations [3] - The implementation of "Trump tariffs" is set to increase U.S. inflation pressure, with Canada and Mexico facing potential tariffs of 35% and 30% respectively [4] - The U.S. Federal Circuit Court is set to hear oral arguments regarding the Trump tariffs, which may escalate to the Supreme Court [4] Group 3 - Figma is set to debut on the NYSE with an IPO price of $33, reflecting strong market demand [6][7] - Ford warned of a $3 billion impact on its annual performance due to tariffs, with an $800 million hit in Q2 [7] - Moderna announced a 10% workforce reduction in response to declining vaccine sales [7] Group 4 - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro showed an 8% reduction in cardiovascular risks compared to Trulicity, but market reaction was lukewarm, with shares initially dropping over 5% [8] - Anheuser-Busch InBev's stock fell over 10% pre-market due to a larger-than-expected decline in Q2 sales [9] - Qualcomm's shares dropped 4.5% as the company warned of losing a major client, Apple, due to its shift to in-house modem production [9]

Economic Indicators - The upcoming week is critical for the U.S. market, with key economic events and corporate earnings reports set to test Wall Street's resolve [1] - The U.S. GDP data for Q2 will be released, which is a core indicator of the overall economic performance and will directly influence market sentiment [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will follow the GDP announcement, with any policy signals potentially causing significant market reactions [4] - The July employment report will be published, with strong employment data indicating economic vitality and consumer spending support, while weak data may signal economic downturn [4][6] Corporate Earnings - Major companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will report earnings this week, with a combined market capitalization exceeding $11 trillion [4][5] - The performance of these companies is crucial as it reflects not only their operational status but also broader economic trends, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors [5] - Positive earnings results could provide strong momentum for the stock market, while disappointing results may dampen current market optimism [5] Trade Policies - The impending tariff deadline set by Trump poses a significant risk to the market, affecting the costs and profits of import-export businesses [5] - Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies raises concerns about potential trade friction and its negative impact on the U.S. economy and corporate earnings [5][6] Market Sentiment - The performance of the market this week could set the tone for the second half of the year, with positive data and earnings likely to bolster market confidence [6] - Conversely, a combination of negative factors could lead to market adjustments and a decrease in investor risk appetite [6]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on significant economic events occurring from July 28 to August 3, particularly the US-China trade negotiations and the impending tariff deadline on August 1, which are expected to impact global trade dynamics [1][4][10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with expectations that there will be no rate cuts in July, despite ongoing discussions about economic conditions [13][14][16] - Major US companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Boeing, and Starbucks, are set to release their earnings reports, which could lead to market volatility [3][25] Group 2 - The article highlights the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, with a focus on the tariffs that are set to take effect on August 1, including a 50% tariff on copper imports [4][6][10] - The article discusses the economic outlook for China, with expectations that the upcoming political bureau meeting will affirm a stable economic environment while acknowledging external pressures [11][12][21] - The article notes that the Japanese central bank is likely to maintain its target interest rate at 0.5%, influenced by ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations and domestic inflation concerns [22][23] Group 3 - Microsoft is expected to report strong earnings driven by its investments in artificial intelligence and operational efficiency, with a target price set at $530 [26] - Meta's second-quarter revenue is projected to reach $44.71 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth, with a consistent track record of exceeding market expectations [28] - Apple's revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be $90.7 billion, a 5.8% increase from the previous year, primarily due to strong iPhone sales [29] - Amazon's revenue is expected to hit $162 billion, supported by growth in its AWS and retail sectors, despite concerns over tariffs [30][31] - Qualcomm is in the process of acquiring Alphawave for approximately $2.4 billion, pending regulatory approval [32] - Boeing forecasts a significant increase in earnings per share and revenue, driven by strong demand for commercial aircraft [33] - Starbucks is launching free study areas in select stores in China to boost customer traffic amid increasing competition [34] - WuXi AppTec's stock has reached a new high, reflecting strong institutional support and positive market sentiment [35]

Economic Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.43%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.30% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.15% [1] - The Eurozone is set to release Q2 GDP data, which will provide insights into the impact of tariff uncertainties on the economy [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a rise, suggesting a strong economy, which may influence future rate decisions [3][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential rate cut in October, with the job market and economic indicators being closely monitored [4] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which may serve as a template for negotiations with the EU, particularly regarding a 15% tariff rate [3] - The deadline for the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" is August 1, raising concerns about potential market volatility depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [3][4] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to report their results [5] - Other notable companies to watch include Procter & Gamble, VISA, and UnitedHealth [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 1.35% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fell by 0.57%, closing at $3334.00 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and positive trade negotiation signals [6][7] Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. Q2 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation data, and the July non-farm payroll report [4][5] - The UK is set to release various economic indicators, including the nationwide house price index and consumer credit data, which may provide insights into future economic trends [8]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's first quarter 13F filing shows a total market value of $1.37 trillion, up from $1.34 trillion in the previous quarter, indicating a growth of 6.05% in inflows [1][2] - The fund added 605 new stocks, increased holdings in 2,772 stocks, reduced holdings in 3,431 stocks, and completely sold out of 691 stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 22.67% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The top five holdings include Microsoft (MSFT) with 142 million shares valued at approximately $53.31 billion, Nvidia (NVDA) with 421 million shares valued at about $45.64 billion, Apple (AAPL) with 199 million shares valued at around $44.15 billion, Amazon (AMZN) with 200 million shares valued at approximately $38.10 billion, and Meta (META) with 58 million shares valued at about $33.54 billion [3][4][5] - The top ten holdings also feature SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Mastercard (MA), Google (GOOG), Broadcom (AVGO), and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) [4][5] Trading Activity - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio include Visa (V), Walmart (WMT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Philip Morris (PM), and Meta [6][7] - The top five sales by largest value include Tesla put options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), SPDR Gold Shares ETF put options, and Honeywell (HON) [6][7]

Market Overview - S&P 500 has achieved an eight-day winning streak, marking its longest in eight months, while the Nasdaq rose over 1% [2] - Microsoft and Meta were significant contributors to the rise in U.S. stocks, with Microsoft up nearly 8% and Meta up over 4% [2] - Apple and Amazon reported earnings after the market closed, with Apple initially dropping over 4% and Amazon down 5% [2] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a three-week low following initial jobless claims data, while it briefly rose over 10 basis points after the ISM manufacturing PMI data [2] - The dollar index rose for three consecutive days, reaching a near three-week high, while the Japanese yen fell nearly 2% after the Bank of Japan decided not to raise interest rates [2] Company News - Apple reported earnings that slightly exceeded expectations and announced a $100 billion buyback, but tariffs are expected to increase costs by $900 million, leading to a 4% drop in stock price post-announcement [4][10] - Amazon's Q1 profit margin reached a new high, but its profit guidance was disappointing, warning of tariff impacts, resulting in a 5% drop in stock price post-announcement [4][10] - Tesla's board is searching for a new CEO as Elon Musk appears fatigued with car manufacturing, with analysts suggesting the need for a leader akin to Tim Cook [11] - Microsoft is inviting Musk's Grok AI to join Azure, potentially straining its relationship with OpenAI [11] - Eli Lilly's stock fell over 11% despite a 45% increase in Q1 revenue, as a major pharmacy chain decided to prioritize a competitor's drug over its own [12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for April showed the largest contraction in five months, with the output index hitting its lowest since May 2020 [13] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were significantly higher than expected, with the number of continuing claims reaching the highest level since 2021 [13] - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain interest rates due to concerns over tariffs impacting economic growth expectations [5][14]