2025 年 10 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Market Strategy - PMI 显示经济放缓 美国 9 月服务业 PMI 扩张停滞，产需双双走弱，就业小幅回升，但物价指数仍然 高企。制造业 PMI 收缩幅度趋缓，需求走弱，生产和就业回升，物价指数小幅下 降。库存指数收缩加剧，企业不断消耗提前积累的库存。PMI 指向经济放缓，就 业底部企稳但价格压力仍大，多数受访者提到关税对成本影响和需求不振。10 月 政府停摆将导致七十万联邦员工无薪休假，同时白宫冻结了近 300 亿转移支付。 预计每停摆一周将拖累 GDP 0.1-0.2 个百分点，短期停摆对市场影响较小，时间 超 2 周可能推升市场避险情绪。本月非农数据暂未公布，但通过各州首次领取失 业金人数加总后得出 9 月末首次失业人数较月初有所下降，显示就业市场未进一 步走弱。我们预计停摆可能会在 2 周内结束，联储 10 月会议可能仍会有 9 月数据 做参考，目前市场对 10 月降息的预期为 96.2%。由于就业数据再次改善而通胀仍 显著高于目标，我们认为美联储或会在 10 月暂停降息。随着经济持续放缓，美联 储 ...

Core Insights - The US manufacturing sector continued to contract in September, with the PMI at 49.1, indicating a seventh consecutive month of contraction despite a slight improvement from August's 48.7 [1][2] - The output index returned to expansion at 51, a significant increase of 3.2 percentage points from August, while the new orders index fell to 48.9, ending a brief expansion [1][2] - Employment in manufacturing remains weak, with the employment index at 45.3, indicating eight months of contraction, as companies resort to layoffs or hiring freezes [1][2] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing PMI has been below the neutral mark of 50 for seven months, reflecting ongoing weakness in the sector [2] - Only five out of 18 manufacturing categories reported growth, including petroleum, primary metals, textiles, metal products, and other manufacturing, while 11 sectors, such as wood, plastics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and electronics, reported declines [2] - The overall economic expansion continues, with the PMI reading corresponding to an annualized GDP growth of approximately 1.9% [2] Price and Inventory Trends - The price index for September was 61.9, indicating continued upward pressure on raw material costs, despite a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The inventory index fell to 47.7, suggesting increased pressure on companies to reduce inventory levels [1] - Customer inventories are generally low, which may benefit production in the future, but current business confidence is still affected by tariffs and global trade uncertainties [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies have gained experience from the first round of trade friction and are now taking a more proactive approach to mitigate the impacts of new tariff policies [1][33]. Group 1: Tariff Mention in Financial Reports - As of May 5, 2025, 5,516 A-share listed companies in China released their Q1 reports, with 41 companies mentioning "tariff" [4]. - In contrast, 276 out of 1,185 U.S. listed companies mentioned "tariff" in their Q1 reports, and 710 companies did so during earnings calls [5][6]. - The higher frequency of tariff mentions in U.S. companies indicates a greater concern regarding tariffs compared to Chinese companies [6]. Group 2: Attitudes Towards Tariffs - Chinese A-share companies show a clear industry differentiation in their attitudes towards tariffs, with 24 companies having a negative stance and 13 a positive one [16]. - Companies with a positive outlook on tariffs are primarily in the power equipment and electronics sectors, while those with a negative outlook are mainly in machinery and automotive sectors [16]. - U.S. companies exhibit a predominantly negative attitude towards tariffs, with 171 companies expressing concerns, while only 10 companies held a positive view [22]. Group 3: Strategies to Mitigate Tariff Impacts - Chinese companies are actively improving their global supply chain systems to alleviate tariff risks, with companies like CIMC Vehicles focusing on enhancing local procurement and establishing backup supply mechanisms in ASEAN countries [21]. - Some Chinese companies have diversified their production bases overseas, such as Tianzhen Co., which has invested in production facilities in Vietnam, Thailand, and the U.S. [19]. - U.S. companies are also adapting by raising prices to pass on tariff costs to consumers, as seen with companies like Newell Brands and Howmet Aerospace [26]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Financial Performance - The trade tensions have led to significant concerns among U.S. companies, with many citing the uncertainty of tariffs affecting their business planning and operational costs [32]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a maximum decline of 12.1% compared to a 7.6% decline in the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a more severe market reaction in the U.S. [34].