张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 30 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月海外增长数据整体超预期 12 月美联储如期降息并启动扩表、联储主席人选博弈加剧；日央行加息、日 本释放干预日元信号；欧央行按兵不动；俄乌和平进程进入关键期；全球多 数市场在流动性宽松预期推动下整体上涨。增长数据方面，12 月美欧服务业 PMI 有所回升，美欧制造业延续走弱态势，日本制造业低位回升；通胀方 面，美国 11 月 CPI 降温超预期，主要受政府关门影响；市场方面，经济数据 整体好于预期，10 年期美债收益率上行，美国三大股指集体上涨，美元走 弱，欧元升值、日元贬值，大宗商品涨跌不一，布伦特原油下跌，黄金、 LME 铜大幅走高。 风险提示：联储独立性削弱，地缘政治不确定性。 研报发布日期：2025-12-29 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 S ...

近年来，山东省日照市深入实施工业倍增"头号工程"，充分依托临港涉海优势，通过优化产业结 构，激活民资动能，强化服务保障，不断激发企业投资意愿，构建了持续高效、动能澎湃的"工业引 擎"。今年1月至11月，其规上工业增加值增长8%，工业投资增长28.8%，增速均居山东省前列。 持续优化产业结构 在日照市岚山区的雷英精工科技有限公司智能化车间里，机械臂精准抓取钢材，经过拉丝、冷镦、 热处理等20余道精密工序，最终变身为一批批高性能紧固件。"这些看似普通的螺丝、螺母，其实是用 于重型机械和新能源汽车等装备制造的高性能紧固件。"该公司总经理张明付说。 在岚山区，传统钢铁正被重新定义。"我们通过引进精深加工项目，推动钢铁产品向家电板材、汽 车零部件、轮船制造、航空航天用品等领域延伸，本地消化率持续提升，实现附加值倍数增长。"日照 市岚山区钢铁服务中心副主任傅志强说。 依托港口优势，日照市把发展重心聚焦大宗原材料加工，造纸、钢铁等传统产业成为工业发展的坚 实支柱。近年来，当地持续加大设备更新和技术改造力度，聚焦钢铁、化工等传统产业，逐个制定改造 提升方案，系统推进传统产业向高端化、智能化、绿色化转型。今年5月，当地发布《2 ...

依托港口优势，日照市把发展重心聚焦大宗原材料加工，造纸、钢铁等传统产业成为工业发展的坚实支 柱。近年来，当地持续加大设备更新和技术改造力度，聚焦钢铁、化工等传统产业，逐个制定改造提升 方案，系统推进传统产业向高端化、智能化、绿色化转型。今年5月，当地发布《2025年加力扩围实施 大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新工作方案》，明确年内滚动实施400个以上投资500万元以上的工业技 改项目。 在创新驱动发展战略引领下，日照市钢铁产品结构持续优化：日钢集团1.0毫米ESP花纹板填补国内空 白，高磁感取向硅钢实现省内首创；山钢日照公司油罐钢、高强钢产品市场占有率居全国首位，并实现 LNG储罐用9镍钢规模化量产；昱岚新材料有限公司突破0.1毫米"手撕钢"量产技术，标志着企业在高端 钢材领域取得重大突破。 通过前瞻性的产业规划和布局，日照市还积极培育战略性新兴产业，使增长建立在更优的产业结构之 上。结构的调整，既让投资吸引力持续增强，也为未来工业经济提供源源不断的新增长点。前三季度， 日照市新增投资项目546个，同比增加36个，计划总投资高达664.1亿元。 今年1月至11月，日照市制造业多个重点领域呈现出强劲增长态势。其中 ...

12月18日，保龄宝盘中上涨2.01%，截至13:27，报9.15元/股，成交5651.47万元，换手率1.69%，总市值 34.82亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入348.18万元，特大单买入145.56万元，占比2.58%，卖出0.00元，占比 0.00%；大单买入966.92万元，占比17.11%，卖出764.30万元，占比13.52%。 保龄宝今年以来股价涨25.00%，近5个交易日涨4.69%，近20日跌3.68%，近60日跌10.99%。 保龄宝所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-农产品加工-其他农产品加工。所属概念板块包括：代糖概念、合成 生物、生物医药、小盘、增持回购等。 截至12月10日，保龄宝股东户数3.43万，较上期减少0.37%；人均流通股10773股，较上期增加0.38%。 2025年1月-9月，保龄宝实现营业收入21.26亿元，同比增长15.98%；归母净利润1.34亿元，同比增长 32.58%。 分红方面，保龄宝A股上市后累计派现3.09亿元。近三年，累计派现9507.22万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 今年以来保龄宝已经5次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为5月22日，当日龙虎榜净买入-5 ...

近年来，乐陵市工商联紧扣高质量发展主题，持续放大商会在产业发展中的"纽带"作用，创新探 索"点、链、群"联动机制，将商会聚到"点"上、建到"链"上、扩到"群"上，为产业"链式"扩张注入了商 会动能。乐陵市工商联先后荣获全国"五好县级工商联"、全国及山东省"民营经济调查工作先进单位"等 称号，并在省产业链商会（协会）工作现场推进会上作典型发言。 延"链"建"会"，推动商会组织迭代升级 把商会建到"链"上强组织。坚持"以链聚商、以商强链"，遴选亚萨合莱国强、星光糖业、泰山体育、安 舜制药等实力雄厚、带动力强的链主企业，牵头组建产业商会，充分发挥其市场、技术与品牌优势，高 效吸纳涵盖上中下游578家会员企业，形成梯度完整、协同紧密的企业生态圈。 把平台聚到"链"上促共享。聚焦产业发展共性痛点与企业个性化需求，依托商会链接各方、聚合资源的 枢纽功能，搭建多元化、实效化共享服务平台。针对调味品等特色产业集群检验检测需求，由商会牵头 整合行业资源，高标准建设共享实验室，已为280家中小调味品企业提供便捷高效、专业权威的第三方 检测服务，帮助企业降低运营成本30%以上，有效破解中小企业 "检测难、检测贵" 问题。 把党建落 ...

11月17日晚间，保龄宝（002286.SZ）公告称，董事会于2025年11月17日收到公司董事长戴斯觉的书面 辞职报告。戴斯觉因个人原因申请辞去公司董事长、董事、董事会战略委员会主任委员职务。 公告称，戴斯觉辞职后仍担任公司全资孙公司BLB INTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT(SINGAPORE)PTE.ITD.、BLB BIO-TECH USA INC董事职务。 曾是A股最年轻董事长 根据保龄宝相关公告信息，戴斯觉，男，1995年1月出生，毕业于英国曼彻斯特大学，金融经济学理学 硕士学历；中国香港居民。2016年至今历任北京永裕投资管理有限公司董事长兼总经理。2021年3月起 任公司董事长。2024年戴斯觉从公司获得的税前报酬总额为151.55万元，其董事长、董事任期终止日期 原为2027年4月29日。 实控人增持，一拖再拖 值得注意的是，2024年8月19日，保龄宝控股股东永裕投资与深圳松径投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以 下简称"松径投资"）签署《一致行动协议》。公司实际控制人由戴斯觉一人，变更为戴斯觉、戴斯聪 （戴斯觉之兄弟）二人共同控制。 戴斯觉（图片来源：保龄宝公众号） 变更后不久，新 ...

Core Insights - The stock price of Baolingbao increased by 2.02% on November 10, reaching 10.09 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.84 billion CNY [1] - Baolingbao's stock has risen 37.84% year-to-date, with a recent 1.31% increase over the last five trading days [1] - The company reported a revenue of 2.126 billion CNY for the period from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.98% [2] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 134 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 32.58% [2] - Baolingbao has distributed a total of 309 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 95.072 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - The company has appeared on the stock market's "龙虎榜" (top trading list) five times this year, with the most recent occurrence on May 22, where it recorded a net buy of -50.8373 million CNY [1] - As of October 31, the number of shareholders for Baolingbao was 33,600, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous period [2]

Company Overview - Baolingbao Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Dezhou, Shandong Province, and was established on October 16, 1997, with its listing date on August 28, 2009 [1] - The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of functional sugars, with revenue composition as follows: starch sugars and others 29.89%, sugar-reducing sweeteners 26.55%, feed and by-products 22.40%, probiotics 13.48%, dietary fibers 7.39%, and others 0.29% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baolingbao achieved operating revenue of 2.126 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.58% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Baolingbao has distributed a total of 309 million yuan in dividends, with 95.072 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of November 4, Baolingbao's stock price decreased by 2.01% to 9.76 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.714 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 33.33%, with a slight increase of 0.83% over the last five trading days, but a decline of 0.10% over the last 20 days and 9.04% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" five times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 22, where it recorded a net buy of -50.8373 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of October 20, Baolingbao had 33,700 shareholders, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous period, with an average of 10,972 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 0.70% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Baolingbao Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the functional sugar industry in China, with significant market shares in sugar substitutes, prebiotics, and dietary fibers, supported by comprehensive product layout and technological advantages [1][6]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Baolingbao reported revenue of 2.126 billion yuan, ranking 5th among 12 companies in the industry, with the top company, COFCO Sugar, generating 20.305 billion yuan [2]. - The main business composition includes starch sugar and others at 418 million yuan (29.89%), sugar substitutes at 372 million yuan (26.55%), feed and by-products at 313 million yuan (22.40%), prebiotics at 189 million yuan (13.48%), dietary fibers at 103 million yuan (7.39%), and others at 4.0175 million yuan (0.29%) [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 134 million yuan, ranking 4th in the industry, with the leading company, COFCO Sugar, achieving 828 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, Baolingbao's debt-to-asset ratio was 19.47%, lower than the previous year's 23.99% and the industry average of 36.70%, indicating strong solvency [3]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 13.30%, an increase from 11.80% in the previous year and above the industry average of 13.16%, reflecting improved profitability [3]. Group 3: Management and Shareholder Information - The chairman, Dai Sijue, received a salary of 1.5155 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 162,600 yuan from 2023 [4]. - The total number of A-share shareholders decreased by 0.40% to 33,900 as of September 30, 2025, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per account increased by 0.40% to 10,900 [5]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Projects - Baolingbao is expected to see rapid revenue growth in sugar substitutes, benefiting from EU anti-dumping policies, with erythritol and crystalline fructose revenues increasing by 89.53% and 50.57% year-on-year, respectively [6]. - The company plans to establish a DHA algae oil production line with an initial target of 2,000 tons per year and is set to launch a project for 2,500 tons of HMOs (human milk oligosaccharides) expected to commence production in the second half of 2025 [6]. - An expansion project for 20,000 tons of allulose sugar is underway, with an anticipated annual capacity of approximately 30,000 tons by the end of 2026 [6].

Core Insights - A new wave of consumer brands is emerging in Jinan, focusing on various sectors such as beauty, silver economy products, functional sugars, and cold chain food, driven by technological advancements and market demand [2][5]. Group 1: Company Developments - Huaxi Biological has transitioned from a B2B model supplying hyaluronic acid to a B2C model, investing 3 billion yuan to build the world's largest pilot platform, enhancing its product development capabilities and market responsiveness [4]. - Tanghe Tang Biotechnology, a subsidiary of Shengquan Group, has evolved from a 10 million yuan revenue company in 2008 to over 400 million yuan by leveraging patented technology to produce high-value functional sugars [3]. - Tangpai Group has established a comprehensive supply chain for silver economy products, offering over 3,000 types of products and creating a new consumption model with a focus on elderly care [5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The silver economy is gaining traction in China, with Tangpai Group addressing the supply-demand mismatch by launching 20-30 new products weekly domestically and 100-200 products internationally [5]. - The cold chain logistics sector is being transformed by Weierkang Group, which has expanded its cold storage capacity from 10,000 tons to 360,000 tons, establishing a nationwide distribution network [6][7].