证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析 今日概览 重磅研报 【固定收益】央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析——20250826 研究视点 【有色金属】锑：7 月供应大幅下滑，锑品出口收紧或接近尾声—— 20250826 【计算机】寒武纪-U（688256.SH）-时代的主角，利润率大超预期—— 20250827 【计算机】中科创达（300496.SZ）-AI 端侧成为重要成长动力，智能软 件与汽车业务提供稳健基本盘——20250827 【环保】聚光科技（300203.SZ）-业绩短期承压，高端科学仪器发力在 即——20250827 【食品饮料】今世缘（603369.SH）-充分释压，行稳致远——20250827 【建材】赛特新材（688398.SH）-国内市场价格和盈利阶段性承压，新 国标或带来显著订单增量——20250827 【食品饮料】农夫山泉（09633.HK）-龙头强势恢复，业绩表现亮眼—— 20250827 【环保】华宏科技（002645.SZ）-利润大幅增长，稀土价格回升&新增 产能提升盈利弹性——202 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In June, the national electricity consumption increased by 5.4%, with thermal power continuing to show positive growth [15] - The packaging water industry in 2025 is expected to maintain intense competition, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages likely to gain market share [17][19] Group 2: Financial Engineering Insights - In Q2 2025, the average return of active equity funds decreased compared to the previous quarter, but over 60% of these funds still achieved positive returns, with a median quarterly return of 1.95% [3] - The scale gap between active and passive funds has widened, with active equity fund size at 3.28 trillion yuan, smaller than the passive index fund size of 3.60 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry Analysis - The chemical sector has shown continuous strength, driven by government policies aimed at reducing low-price competition and promoting the exit of outdated production capacity [8] - The basic chemical index has risen by 5.2% since July 17, 2025, indicating a positive market sentiment [9] Group 4: Electricity Sector Insights - The electricity supply side has seen a slowdown in growth for thermal and wind power, while nuclear and solar power generation have accelerated [15] - Recommendations include increasing allocation to the electricity sector, particularly focusing on companies with resilient quarterly performance in thermal power [15] Group 5: Beverage Industry Dynamics - Nongfu Spring is expected to see steady growth in its packaging water business, with strong brand and channel capabilities [18] - China Resources Beverages is positioned to benefit from improved profit margins due to increased self-production and reduced outsourcing costs [19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [3][8][10]. Core Views - China Resources Beverage, as a leading bottled water company, benefits from both revenue and profit growth. The company is expected to enjoy the industry's penetration rate increase and has made initial progress in its beverage business with the "Zhiben Qingrun" chrysanthemum tea series. The company is projected to improve its profitability through various cost-reduction strategies [3][8][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beverage is a subsidiary of China Resources Group, focusing on bottled water and beverage businesses. Its core brand "Yibao" is a leading bottled water brand in China, with a market share of 18.4% in 2023 [5][15]. Bottled Water Business - The bottled water market in China has grown from 152.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1%. The company aims to increase its self-production rate from 32% in 2023 to over 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [6][8][29]. Beverage Business - The company has been exploring the beverage sector since 2011, launching various products. The "Zhiben Qingrun" series has gained a market share of 38.5% in 2023. The company aims to improve channel efficiency and reduce sales expenses through continuous product launches and increased distribution [7][8][29]. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 140.7 billion yuan, 150.6 billion yuan, and 161.4 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be 19.2 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.8, 0.93, and 1.09 yuan, respectively [8][29].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sales of Wahaha bottled water has led to a partnership with Jinmailang for contract manufacturing, highlighting the competitive landscape in the bottled water market in China [2][4]. Company Overview - Jinmailang's chairman, Fan Xianguo, confirmed that the company produces over 10 billion bottles of its blue label water annually, with a projected sales revenue of approximately 4 billion yuan for 2023 [2][4]. - Jinmailang's bottled water products include blue label, Liangbai, and Jinmin, with a total projected sales revenue of around 14 billion yuan for 2023 [4][6]. Market Position - In the Chinese bottled water market, Jinmailang holds a 2.3% market share, ranking seventh, while the top five companies dominate over 80% of the market [6][7]. - The leading companies in the market include Nongfu Spring, Yibao, and Wahaha, with Nongfu Spring generating 50.7 billion yuan in retail sales [6][7]. Profitability Analysis - Jinmailang's profit margins are significantly lower than competitors, with a net profit of only 0.02 yuan per bottle of blue label water, compared to higher margins for brands like Nongfu Spring [7][9]. - The competitive pricing strategy of Jinmailang, with blue label water priced at 1 yuan per bottle, has been challenged by price reductions from competitors, diminishing its low-price advantage [9][10]. Competitive Strategy - Jinmailang has focused on a low-cost strategy to capture market share in lower-tier cities, but faces challenges from competitors like Wahaha, which also target similar markets [9][11]. - The company has employed a "four-in-one" distribution model to penetrate rural markets, but this model is reportedly under review due to high operational costs [12]. Financial Performance - Jinmailang's overall revenue has declined, with reported earnings of 16.57 billion yuan in 2023, down from over 24 billion yuan in 2020-2021 [12].

Group 1: REITs and Data Centers - The first data center REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, has been accepted for review on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, attracting significant investor attention due to its business model and asset characteristics [4]. Group 2: Defense and AI - Kosi Technology (688788.SH) is positioned as a leader in AI and unmanned equipment for military applications, with a strong focus on AI command and control systems, having accumulated over 20 years of core data and experience [5][6]. - The company has invested over 1 billion yuan in R&D, with a team of over 400 people dedicated to AI and military applications, indicating significant growth potential in both military and civilian sectors [6]. Group 3: Healthcare - Meinian Health (002044.SZ) is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the health checkup industry, with over 600 branches and a leading position in the number of annual health checkups [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.826 billion yuan, 12.099 billion yuan, and 13.098 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 326 million yuan, 617 million yuan, and 813 million yuan [8]. Group 4: Banking - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077.SH) is expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with projected net profit growth rates of 5.72%, 5.99%, and 6.53% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) has shown resilience with a return to profit growth in 2024, maintaining a leading position in the industry [10]. Group 5: Carbon Market and Construction - The national carbon market is expanding, with significant implications for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, as companies adapt to new carbon pricing mechanisms [11]. - Key players in these sectors, such as Baosteel and China Aluminum, are expected to benefit from the transition to greener production methods [11]. Group 6: Coal Industry - China Shenhua Energy (H) has seen an increase in long-term investment interest, with a recent stake acquisition by Swiss Life Insurance, reflecting a reevaluation of the coal sector's value [14][15]. - The company has a low debt ratio of 23.4% and plans to distribute 44.9 billion yuan in cash dividends in 2024, indicating strong cash flow and dividend capacity [15][16]. Group 7: Chemicals and Materials - Sanwei Chemical (002469.SZ) reported a significant acceleration in Q4 performance, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99%, making it an attractive investment [21]. - China Jushi (600176.SH) achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, with a strong performance in Q4, indicating resilience in the fiberglass market [22][23]. Group 8: Consumer Goods - Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) reported stable growth with a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, driven by strong brand value and product innovation [30]. - The company is expected to see net profits grow by 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0% from 2025 to 2027, maintaining its market leadership [30]. Group 9: Textile and Apparel - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 37%, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency [31].