饮料乳品 泉阳泉：中国矿泉水第一股，全国化带来放量空间 泉阳泉（600189.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | 评级： | 增持（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何长天 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,122 | | 1,198 | 1,274 | 1,450 | 1,722 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -12% | | 7% | 6% | 14% | 19% | | 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -457 | | 6 | 15 | 20 | 30 | | Email：hect@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -900% | | 101% | 137% | 40% | 47% | | | | 每股收益（元） | -0.64 | | 0. ...

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Core Insights - The packaging water industry is shifting from a price war to a value war, driven by increasing consumer demand for product quality and specific consumption scenarios [1][6] - The market size for China's packaging water (excluding large packages over 8L) is projected to reach 224.23 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [1] - Leading brands like Nongfu Spring hold a significant market share of 33%, while regional brands like Quan Yang Quan are also showing strong growth due to geographical advantages [1][6] Industry Trends - The competition in the packaging water industry is becoming more multifaceted, with a clear distinction in performance among leading brands and regional players [1] - The price index for packaging water has shown a slight decline, with manufacturers adopting "price for volume" strategies during peak seasons [2] - High-end water products are experiencing rapid growth, with the number of new products priced above 10 yuan expected to increase by 42% in 2025 [2] Channel Dynamics - The channel landscape for packaging water has changed significantly, with specialized channels showing a GMV growth of 13.8% from January to July 2025, while modern channels have seen a decline of 14.2% [3] - Brands are increasingly focusing on discount store channels and developing specialized products to capture market share [3] Future Outlook - The focus on product value and health trends is expected to continue, with consumers seeking functional enhancements in packaging water [4] - The competition is anticipated to shift towards resource-based factors, particularly water sources, as the core competitive advantage in the industry [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies are advised to pay attention to leading brands like Nongfu Spring, which are well-positioned to respond quickly to market demands [6] - Regional brands like Quan Yang Quan are also recommended for their potential to leverage local advantages in the competitive landscape [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tibet Water Resources Ltd. is changing its name to "5100 Xizang Glacier Company Limited" to emphasize its water business and improve its market image, as it has faced significant losses over the past three years totaling over 1 billion yuan [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Name Change - The name change aims to provide a better and more stable corporate identity, facilitating future business development [2]. - This is not the first name change; the company previously removed "5100" from its name in 2015 to reflect a broader product range [2]. - The reintroduction of "5100" in the name is a strategic move to focus on the growth of its water business amid increasing competition [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tibet Water Resources has reported continuous losses over the past three years, with losses of 1.02 billion yuan in 2022, 3.53 billion yuan in 2023, and 5.74 billion yuan in 2024, totaling over 1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company's revenue has significantly declined from a peak of 932 million yuan in 2017 to only 226 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The beer segment accounted for 60.82% of total revenue in 2024, but its sales volume dropped by 35.4% year-on-year, while the water segment contributed 38.76% of total revenue with a 6.8% increase in sales volume [3][6]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The bottled water market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Nongfu Spring and others entering the market with lower price points [8][10]. - The pricing of 5100 products is not competitive; for example, a 330ml×24 pack is priced at 98 yuan, translating to 4.08 yuan per bottle, which is higher than many competitors [9]. - Despite the challenges, the market for bottled water is expected to grow, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 8.2% for purified water from 2024 to 2028 [10]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Future Plans - The company has sought new partnerships to reduce reliance on previous major clients, such as China Railway, and has entered into strategic agreements with companies like Sinopec [5][6]. - Future plans include deepening market presence in Tibet and expanding nationally through product innovation and improved channel management [7].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality natural water sources as a core asset for bottled water brands, highlighting the shift in focus from taste to sourcing [1] Industry Overview - Domestic bottled water companies are increasingly seeking premium water sources in remote areas, such as the Changbai Mountain region, to enhance their brand narratives and product quality [1] - The article describes a specific water extraction point in Changbai Mountain, which requires a 20-minute walk through the forest to access, indicating the lengths companies will go to secure high-quality sources [1] Sustainability Considerations - Experts suggest that the development of natural water sources in areas like Changbai Mountain must be approached with caution, balancing commercial interests with sustainable practices [1] - The natural water sources in Changbai Mountain are seen as critical not only for entering the high-end market but also for addressing sustainability challenges within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "water war" in China's bottled water market has intensified, with major players like Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and Yibao engaging in aggressive pricing strategies to capture market share, leading to significant shifts in market dynamics [1][5][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nongfu Spring launched its green bottle purified water at a retail price of 1 yuan per bottle, directly targeting competitors Yibao and Wahaha [1][3]. - Wahaha, under the leadership of Zong Fuli, has also reduced its bottled water prices to below 1 yuan, employing aggressive promotional strategies similar to those seen in other sectors [3][5]. - As of August 2025, Wahaha's market share increased from 14.22% to 17.7%, while Yibao's share dropped from 25.11% to 20.34%, indicating a significant shift in competitive positioning [5][9]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies and Subsidies - Both Yibao and Nongfu Spring have engaged in substantial subsidy programs to lower retail prices, with Yibao providing 2 yuan per box in subsidies earlier in the year, which later decreased [4][8]. - The practice of "performance-based subsidies" has become common, where distributors face penalties for not meeting sales targets, leading to aggressive pricing tactics [5][6]. - Distributors have reported instances of "price inversion," where they sell products below cost to maintain market presence, reflecting the intense competitive pressure [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Yibao's financial performance has suffered, with a reported 23.1% decline in revenue from bottled water in the first half of 2025, marking a significant downturn for a previously stable segment [9][10]. - The decline in Yibao's market share and revenue has been attributed to increased competition and the aggressive pricing strategies of Nongfu Spring's green bottle products [8][9]. - The overall market for bottled water has seen a shift, with the price war leading to reduced profitability for many distributors, mirroring challenges faced in other competitive sectors [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price war in China's bottled water market has intensified competition among major players, particularly Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and Yibao, leading to significant market share shifts and financial impacts on the companies involved [2][3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In April 2024, Nongfu Spring launched its green bottle purified water at a retail price of 1 yuan per bottle, directly targeting competitors Yibao and Wahaha [2]. - The competition has led to aggressive pricing strategies, with Yibao also reducing its bottled water prices to below 1 yuan, including promotional offers such as 0.01 yuan per bottle [3][4]. - As of August 2025, Wahaha's market share increased from 14.22% to 17.7%, while Yibao's share decreased from 25.11% to 20.34%, indicating a significant shift in competitive dynamics [4][8]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Yibao's parent company, China Resources Beverage, reported a 23.1% decline in revenue from bottled water in the first half of 2025, with all product categories experiencing a downturn [8]. - The aggressive subsidy strategies employed by both Yibao and Nongfu Spring have led to a phenomenon of "price inversion," where distributors sell products below cost to maintain market share [5][6]. - The financial strain from these subsidies has raised concerns among distributors, who face pressure to meet sales targets while managing costs [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The bottled water industry in China has evolved significantly over the past 30 years, with Yibao initially dominating the market until being challenged by Nongfu Spring's strategic initiatives [9][10]. - Yibao's market share had been steadily increasing until the recent competitive pressures from Nongfu Spring's green bottle offerings, which disrupted its previously stable position [8][10]. - The historical context highlights the shift from a less competitive market to one where price wars are prevalent, driven by the need to capture a larger consumer base [10].

Core Viewpoint - The intense price war in China's bottled water market has led to significant shifts in market share among major players, particularly affecting the performance of the brands involved, with a notable decline in the market share of the leading brand,怡宝 [2][10][21]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - The price of bottled water has dropped significantly, with农夫山泉's green bottle water priced at 1 yuan, directly targeting the core markets of怡宝 and娃哈哈 [2][10]. - The competition has intensified, with all major players, including农夫山泉,娃哈哈, and怡宝, heavily subsidizing prices to maintain market share [7][12]. - As of 2024, the retail price for农夫山泉's red bottle water has been reduced to approximately 0.8 yuan per bottle, matching its cost price [7][10]. Group 2: Market Share Changes - The market share of娃哈哈 has increased from 14.22% to 17.7% between April 2024 and August 2025, while华润饮料's share has decreased from 25.11% to 20.34% during the same period [15][21]. - The price war has resulted in a significant decline in怡宝's market share, which had previously been stable since 2005, marking a notable downturn due to the aggressive pricing strategies of competitors [21][24]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025,华润饮料 reported a revenue decline of 18.52% and a net profit drop of 28.74% compared to the same period in 2024 [23]. - The gross margin for怡宝 decreased from 49.3% to 46.7%, indicating a reduction in profitability amid the ongoing price competition [23]. - The overall revenue for the bottled water segment under华润饮料 fell by 23.1%, with all product categories experiencing a downturn [23][24]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Challenges - The ongoing price war has led to a phenomenon of "price inversion," where distributors sell products below cost to maintain market presence [18][19]. - The competitive landscape has shifted, with the introduction of aggressive pricing strategies by农夫山泉's green bottle water disrupting the market dynamics [21][36]. - The industry is witnessing a trend where heavy subsidies are becoming a norm, leading to increased pressure on distributors and potential long-term sustainability issues [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price war in China's bottled water market has intensified, particularly among major players like Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and Yibao, leading to significant market share shifts and financial impacts on the companies involved [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nongfu Spring launched its green bottle purified water at a retail price of 1 yuan per bottle, directly targeting the core markets of Yibao and Wahaha [2][8]. - The competition has escalated to a "water war" among the three companies, with each investing heavily in subsidies and pricing strategies to capture market share [5][10]. - As of August 2025, Wahaha's market share increased from 14.22% to 17.7%, while Yibao's share dropped from 25.11% to 20.34% [10][12]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Retail prices for bottled water have plummeted, with Nongfu Spring's red bottle water being sold at around 0.8 yuan per bottle, nearly matching the wholesale price [5][10]. - Yibao has also engaged in aggressive pricing tactics, including promotional offers that have seen prices drop to as low as 0.01 yuan per bottle [8][10]. - The intense competition has led to a phenomenon of "price inversion," where distributors sell products below cost to meet sales targets and maintain market presence [12][13]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Yibao's financial results for the first half of 2025 showed a significant decline, with revenue dropping by 18.52% to 6.206 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 28.74% to 0.823 billion yuan [16]. - The gross margin for Yibao fell from 49.3% to 46.7%, indicating pressure on profitability due to the ongoing price war [16]. - The overall bottled water market has seen a shift, with Yibao's previously steady market share now facing unprecedented challenges due to aggressive pricing from competitors [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price war in China's bottled water market has intensified, with major players like Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and Yibao engaging in aggressive pricing strategies, leading to significant market share shifts and financial impacts on the companies involved [1][6][13]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Nongfu Spring launched its green bottle purified water at a retail price of 1 yuan per bottle, directly targeting the core markets of Yibao and Wahaha [1][6]. - The retail price of Nongfu Spring's red bottle water has dropped to around 0.8 yuan per bottle due to heavy subsidies from the company and external platforms [3][8]. - Wahaha, under the leadership of Zong Fuli, has also reduced its bottled water prices to below 1 yuan, employing aggressive promotional strategies similar to those seen in other sectors [6][8]. Group 2: Market Share Changes - As of April 2024, Wahaha's market share in the bottled water segment increased from 14.22% to 17.7%, while Yibao's share decreased from 25.11% to 20.34% [8][12]. - The competitive landscape has shifted significantly, with Nongfu Spring maintaining a leading position despite short-term fluctuations in market share [8][12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Yibao's revenue and net profit have declined significantly, with a reported 18.52% drop in revenue and a 28.74% decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [15][16]. - The gross margin for Yibao has decreased by 2.6 percentage points, indicating pressure on profitability amid the price war [15][16]. Group 4: Industry Practices - The practice of "performance betting" in subsidies has become common, where distributors face pressure to meet sales targets or risk losing rewards, leading to price undercutting [8][11]. - Instances of "price inversion" have emerged, where distributors sell products below cost to maintain market presence, reflecting the intense competitive pressures in the industry [11][12].