Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]

数据公布后，黄金短线拉升7美元后回落，美指一度跌破99关口。 根据薪资处理公司ADP周三发布的报告，美国私营部门的就业增长在5月份放缓至近乎停滞，创下两年多来的最低水平，劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。 这份被誉为"小非农"的数据显示，美国5月仅新增3.7万个就业岗位，低于4月份向下修正后的6万个，也远低于市场预测的11万个，为2023年3月以来最小增 幅。 关于工资，Richardson表示，留任员工的年薪增长率为4.5%，跳槽员工的年薪增长率为7%，两者与4月份相比变化不大，但仍处于"强劲"水平。 在"小非农"数据公布之后，美国总统特朗普迅速发帖开喷鲍威尔，其写道："ADP就业报告出来了，'太迟先生'美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。他令人无 语！！欧洲已经降息了九次！" 这份报告发布于备受关注的非农就业数据的前两天，后者预计将显示新增12.5万个就业岗位，失业率稳定在4.2%。 尽管这两份报告经常存在差异，有时甚至差距很大，但ADP的统计数据在当前市场对更广泛经济状况提出疑问之际，提供了美国就业状况的另一个快照。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示："在今年开局强劲之后，招聘势头正在减弱。" 商品 ...

本报记者 陈雪波 成都报道 5月18日上午，"新商业文明——走进美天竞保：探索数智科技赋能普惠医疗"活动在成都举办。此次活 动吸引了众多行业专家、企业代表齐聚一堂，共同探讨数智科技在医疗普惠领域的应用与发展。 对于当下最佳的商业模式，李维华认为应以整店复制特许经营为主线，融入老模式和新模式。他以星巴 克、沃尔玛、家乐福等为代表，指出整店复制特许经营模式具有强大的生命力。同时，他着重强调要将 现代科技工具融入商业模式，如互联网、区块链、AI等，但他明确表示数字化只是工具之一，不能将 其视为唯一。此外，还需融入与时俱进的特许经营学新思想、新技术、新理念、新思维，构建"大特 许"模式，即以整店复制特许经营为主线，融入老模式、新模式、科技以及特许经营学的创新元素。 在针对具体行业和企业的分析中，李维华以零食量贩和新式茶饮为例，指出企业成功的关键在于规模、 低价、加盟和供应链等方面。规模要满足即时购买即时消费，低价符合人性，加盟模式多样，供应链需 高效。 对于美天竞保所在的医疗服务业，他建议设计B2B加B2C的盈利模式，以满足不同市场需求。同时，他 提醒企业要避免偏执型经营思维，战略选择应多元化，且下沉市场应按等项分线 ...