Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the mid - term and short - term structures of various energy and chemical products, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamental and technical analysis of each product. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for different products, and many products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical events [1][2]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 barrels/day复产 plan. In October, it will increase production by 137,000 barrels/day. The market has a large surplus expectation after the first - stage复产, and the second - stage复产 will add to the pressure with the demand shifting from peak to off - peak season. Geopolitical events and sanctions expectations bring short - term support, but the fundamental trend is downward [2]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is a bit subtle, testing the short - term pressure of 489 (11 contract). It is recommended to observe for one more day. The hourly - level short positions can be held cautiously [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there are unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, the start - up rates of ABS and EPS decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, which is a short - term pressure point. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device put - into - production pressure in September - October, and the supply - demand situation is weak. There is also the risk of inventory over - filling [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After a sharp fall, it is in a normal repair period. It has reached above the short - term pressure of 7040 (10 contract). The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 7180 [5]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices strong. The import volume in August increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a continuous increase expectation. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires decreases significantly, while that of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation structure at the daily level, and the hourly - level upward structure is being tested. After an increase in positions and a fall below the support of 15880, the short - term upward trend is under threat. It is close to the lower limit of the August range. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute chart after a rebound fails to break through the pressure of 16000 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. The start - up rate and output of some devices decrease due to maintenance, and the inventory of downstream semi - steel tires also drops. The main contradiction lies in the cost of butadiene. With the arrival of a large number of ships, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previous tight situation. In the medium term, the supply pressure of butadiene will gradually appear, and the upstream crude oil will also face surplus pressure [10]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward structure at the daily level, and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. Since August 22, the position has increased by 97%. After an increase in positions and a break - through today, it may end the oscillation and turn to a downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 11760. The 15 - minute short positions can be held at the hourly level, with the stop - profit at 11760 [13]. PX - Logic: The profit of PX is restored, and the start - up rate is increasing after the maintenance peak. The domestic PX load is 83%, and the Asian PX load is 75%. The demand - side device maintenance and复产 co - exist, but the overall start - up rate of PTA has declined, and the previous inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The intraday trend is oscillatory, and the small - cycle should pay attention to the pressure at 6770 on the 15 - minute chart. The remaining short positions can be held [17]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic of crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4700. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 4700 [21]. PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and new devices will be put into production. The demand enters the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic [22]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7090, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 6990 pressure on the 15 - minute short - cycle. If it breaks through, partial stop - profit can be made [22]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas start - up rates are high, and the arrival pressure in September is large. The port inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a record high in the past 5 years. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term pressure is great [24]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillation and short - term downward structures. After an increase in positions and a fall, the 15 - minute cycle turns down. Attention should be paid to whether the hourly - level downward slope returns. The short - term pressure is at 2435. The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 2435 [24]. PVC - Logic: After the previous maintenance, the start - up rate remains at a high level of 75%. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is strong, so the supply is difficult to reduce. The inventory continues to accumulate to the highest level in the same period of history. Before the real estate bottoms out, the demand is difficult to improve, and the fundamentals are bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure at the daily level and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4930. The short positions can be held [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level in recent years, so the fundamentals are relatively strong compared with other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up rate, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term situation is strong, but the medium - term expectation is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday oscillation, but the closing price hits a new low, and the short - term decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure is at 4375. The short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 4375 [30]. Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate of PE is stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is general [32]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7365, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 7290 pressure on the 15 - minute small - cycle. The 15 - minute short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 7290 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the end of the anti - involution hype, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure starts the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution has no real impact on the supply. The over - capacity trend continues, and the output has further increased after the price increase. The real estate demand is difficult to bottom out, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains unchanged. The large inventory and high - output pressure continue to suppress the price [33]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 1320. The short positions can be held [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, the supply - side output and start - up rate decreased due to autumn maintenance and transportation restrictions during the military parade. After the parade on September 3, the supply - side speculation may end. The export demand is at a high level but the profit is declining, and the domestic non - aluminum demand is rising in the early peak season, while the alumina demand remains flat at a high level. The overall supply - demand is strong, but the supply pressure is greater. The inventory is at a record high in the past 5 years, and there is an over - supply situation after the start - up rate recovers [36]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 2625. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 2625 [36].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].