原油-SC 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原油 新官将上任 能化是福是祸？ 摘 要 2026 年 1 月 30 日，美国总统特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯 文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下一任美联储主席，这一人事变动打破 了全球金融市场对货币政策的惯性预期，国内能源化工商品期货市 场随之陷入"政策冲击与产业基本面"的剧烈博弈。作为兼具华尔 街投行经验与央行政策制定履历的鹰派代表，沃什的核心政策主张 ——"缩表与降息并行"，彻底重构了市场的流动性定价逻辑。 宝城期货研究所 在利空因素压制下，2 月 2 日（本周一），国内能源化工板块 迎来集体下挫的走势。其中，原油期货 2603 合约大幅下跌 7.02% 至 449 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baofeng Energy's financial report for the first half of 2025 indicates strong performance in the production and sales of polyethylene and polypropylene, with a significant gross margin in its coal-to-olefins segment [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company sold a total of 2.2708 million tons of polyethylene and polypropylene products, generating revenue of 14.94 billion yuan [1][7]. - The average selling price of olefin products is approximately 6,579.18 yuan per ton [1][7]. - The gross margin for the coal-to-olefins segment reached 42.84%, suggesting a production cost of about 3,760.66 yuan per ton [1][10]. Group 2: Cost Analysis - Some analysts believe that considering hydrogen subsidies and carbon tax exemptions, the actual production cost could be "just over three thousand," significantly lower than traditional industry perceptions [10][11]. - The cost of producing ethylene via traditional naphtha cracking is around 550 USD per ton, equivalent to approximately 3,894.99 yuan, indicating that Baofeng could earn nearly 3,000 yuan per ton when market prices are at 6,700 yuan [5][10]. Group 3: Industry Comparison - The coal chemical industry, exemplified by Baofeng Energy, excels in producing cost-sensitive bulk chemicals through integrated and large-scale production, creating a competitive cost advantage [12]. - In contrast, the oil chemical industry offers a wider range of products, including high-end materials, and often views olefin production as a byproduct of its refining processes [12].