来源：国金证券股份有限公司 波动中的定价 过去一段时间，市场呈现的运行状态是：全球风险资产在低波环境中维持震荡上行，而商品侧则在价格 上行的同时伴随波动率抬升。权益市场来看，2026 年首个交易日全球主要股指迎来开门红，港股市场 表现尤为亮眼，涨幅在全球主要股指中较为领先。港股的走强更偏向于美元流动性外溢下对前期"滞 涨"的补涨，同时产业层面的催化进一步推升股价。商品市场来看，本周资产价格出现高位波动，短期 交易行为占据了主导，同时也暴露出低库存环境下的脆弱性。 长期视角看：当前工业金属货值/美国金融资产和广义货币来处在20 年的低位，实物资产长期处于被低 估状态，库存意愿不断下降。展望未来，当需求侧遭遇产业变迁带来的需求结构冲击，而供给侧遇到了 贸易政策变化，此时低库存叠加货币宽松周期使其更易吸纳金融资本并放大资产价格的波动。中期视角 下，AI 投资和全球制造业周期修复仍构成了大宗商品行情的重要驱动。值得一提的是，近期部分未受 上述交易因素影响品种的行情已开始体现基本面定价的逻辑。更优的投资策略是中长期维持做多思路， 热门品种波动率回落后将迎来布局机会。 基本面：扩内需政策与出口韧性继续形成共振 从最新的制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

【报告导读】本周A股缩量震荡，但也有新的变化。非银机构的约束放松将进一步与全A的盈利回升形成正向循环；而经济上生产出口与全球制造业复苏 的趋势形成共振的概率在增加。短期美元可能有所反弹从而对风险资产带来一定压力；但不影响长期降息趋势，制造业回升所带来的全球实物消耗的增长 是确定性机会。 Summary 摘要 1.A股的"静默"与商品的"躁动" 本周A股市场呈现出典型的缩量特征，市场交易热度显著降温，换手率、两融活跃度及期权隐含波动率均降至阶段低位。这一现象的核心在于，本周国内 缺少新的经济或金融数据，叠加即将召开12月关键政策会议，市场缺乏明确的宏观指引。然而，A股的"静默"与商品市场的"躁动"形成鲜明对比。以白 银、铜为代表的金属价格强势上涨，其深层次逻辑在于，全球大宗商品被长期压低的库存水平，本身体现的是产业链对于政策环境和产业发展进入相对稳 态的适应性。但是，当全球政策环境改变叠加数据中心、电动化等新兴产业正在深刻改变经济结构，库存行为的变化将会较大程度挑战静态的供需视角的 定价。 2.金融市场的变化：非银资金扩容与资本回报企稳回升的共振 本周金融市场出现了一些变化：金监局下调保险公司相关业务风险因子， ...

Group 1: A-shares and Commodity Markets - The A-share market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, with the average turnover rate dropping to the lowest level since July 2023, indicating a cooling in market activity [3][15] - In contrast, commodity markets, particularly metals like silver and copper, are witnessing strong price increases due to historically low inventory levels, which reflect the industry's adaptation to a relatively stable policy environment [3][18] - The recent surge in commodity prices is attributed to the low inventory situation and the potential for new demand driven by emerging industries and policy changes, challenging traditional static supply-demand pricing perspectives [3][18] Group 2: Financial Market Changes - Recent changes in the financial market include a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies and discussions about expanding capital space and leverage limits for brokerages, which may lead to increased market liquidity [4][32] - Historical data suggests that past relaxations of risk factors and leverage policies have resulted in positive market performance, with non-bank financial institutions outperforming the overall A-share market [4][32] Group 3: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - There are positive signs in the domestic economy, particularly in exports, with the November manufacturing PMI showing significant improvement in new export orders, indicating a potential rebound in China's export growth [5][33] - The recovery in external demand is supported by rising export growth rates in South Korea and increased container throughput at major Chinese ports, suggesting a broader recovery in global trade [5][33] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The expectation of a shift to a looser global liquidity environment as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and global trade demand [6][36] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, are beginning to see increased FDI inflows, which are expected to contribute to China's export growth [5][36][37] Group 5: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a rise in December rate cut expectations, although the employment market remains a critical concern, with recent data showing a decline in job numbers [6][52][60] - The market is currently pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, indicating a more optimistic outlook for monetary policy adjustments [6][57]