各位朋友早上好，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者、专盯中长线投资的老炮儿。今天一睁眼，财经新 闻直接刷屏——上证指数创了33年最长的十三连阳，新开户数飙到近三年新高，央行还明确说要灵活用 降准降息工具，这市场热闹得让人忍不住想多说两句。 想起我当年跑财经口，最有意思的就是看开户数据和行情的联动。以前遇到开户潮，大多是散户扎堆进 场，可这次不一样，2025年全年新开户2700多万户，机构开户数居然同比激增35%，这可是个关键信 号。要知道机构资金可比散户沉稳多了，他们扎堆入场，本质是冲着政策托底和经济复苏的确定性来 的。就像监管最近还在调研理财公司，想打通中长期资金入市的堵点，现在连银行理财都能像公募基金 一样参与上市公司定增了，这长钱进场的架势，可不是短期炒作能比的。 很多人问我，十三连阳是不是就意味着牛市来了？我的看法是，别急着下结论，但可以肯定的是，市场 的底气越来越足了。央行2026年工作会议把降准降息放进了重点工具包，再加上美联储可能也要降息， 人民币汇率有望温和升值，内外流动性都在往好的方向走。更重要的是，2026年的市场逻辑变了，以前 可能靠估值炒作，现在企业盈利要开始发力了，这才是中长线投资最扎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares is expected to rise from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a more favorable profitability trend [1] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on four main lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a particular emphasis on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the characteristics of "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth are observed, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, and the recovery of trade settlement rates along with visa-free entry for foreign tourists has led to improved sales net profit margins in sectors such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - The financial landscape shows a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage are expected to resonate with the non-bank sector and the recovery of ROE [2]

来源：国金证券股份有限公司 波动中的定价 过去一段时间，市场呈现的运行状态是：全球风险资产在低波环境中维持震荡上行，而商品侧则在价格 上行的同时伴随波动率抬升。权益市场来看，2026 年首个交易日全球主要股指迎来开门红，港股市场 表现尤为亮眼，涨幅在全球主要股指中较为领先。港股的走强更偏向于美元流动性外溢下对前期"滞 涨"的补涨，同时产业层面的催化进一步推升股价。商品市场来看，本周资产价格出现高位波动，短期 交易行为占据了主导，同时也暴露出低库存环境下的脆弱性。 长期视角看：当前工业金属货值/美国金融资产和广义货币来处在20 年的低位，实物资产长期处于被低 估状态，库存意愿不断下降。展望未来，当需求侧遭遇产业变迁带来的需求结构冲击，而供给侧遇到了 贸易政策变化，此时低库存叠加货币宽松周期使其更易吸纳金融资本并放大资产价格的波动。中期视角 下，AI 投资和全球制造业周期修复仍构成了大宗商品行情的重要驱动。值得一提的是，近期部分未受 上述交易因素影响品种的行情已开始体现基本面定价的逻辑。更优的投资策略是中长期维持做多思路， 热门品种波动率回落后将迎来布局机会。 基本面：扩内需政策与出口韧性继续形成共振 从最新的制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

如何理解近期各产业链涨价：实物消耗的扩散与汇聚 当下涨价链成为市场焦点，通过梳理各行业涨价函具体内容与业内分析可以看到，原材料价格的上涨成 为价格主要推升因素；与此同时，反内卷政策的效果也正在显现，在面临上游涨价，下游压价的困境 时，部分企业开始选择自发减产与联合提价的方式维护产业合理竞争秩序。往后看由于需求端的景气程 度差异，涨价的持续性也有所不同。对于大宗商品而言，我们认为凌厉的上涨可能有两层原因：本轮有 色金属的上涨，可能在指示边际需求更多由大量高毛利与成长性的新兴部门所驱动，占后者的成本比重 偏小，对价格上涨的接受与容忍度相对而言更高，交易区间会拉长；过往产业+金融是实物库存的实际 空头，当面对需求、政策和交易结构变化时，呈现脆弱性。 往后全球来看，海外降息周期驱动下，制造业修复下投资强于消费的格局有望延续，而由于投资——就 业传导将在AI发展下反而受阻，导致服务通胀上升缓慢，延缓通胀带来的利率约束的到来；而映射到 国内股票市场，当下金属与AI投资的关系更像是2021年煤炭/火电与新能源的关系，同样受到新能源发 展的宏观背景的影响，但股价却在2021年后出现了背离，其实是对业绩一阶导与二阶导表现的差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, characterized by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across manufacturing sectors and extended trading ranges for bulk commodities, with China's manufacturing advantages becoming more evident and reflected in the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and industrial resource products that resonate with the global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the cycle bottom, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles, as well as domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] - Capture the recovery in inbound tourism and the increase in residents' income, leading to a rebound in consumption in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns in non-bank sectors, including insurance and brokerage firms [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.32% [1] - Sectors such as commercial aerospace, military industry, and securities saw significant gains, while photovoltaic, consumer electronics, and coal sectors experienced declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the current market volatility is a normal state before potential fundamental changes, with a focus on resource revaluation and companies expanding overseas [1] - The firm anticipates that potential appreciation of the RMB may lead to unexpected monetary easing, which could disrupt the current volatility pattern [1] - Short-term risks include intensified US-China tensions in technology, trade, and finance, as well as domestic policy effectiveness and economic recovery falling short of expectations [1] Sector Focus - Everbright Securities emphasizes short-term attention on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term focus remains on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [2] - The firm notes that the market may lack strong catalysts in the short term, leading to a phase of consolidation [2] - High dividend and consumer sectors are expected to perform better during the current market fluctuations [2] Recommendations - Guojin Securities identifies a clearer mainline structure emerging in the market, recommending investments in industrial resource products and non-bank financials [3] - The firm highlights the positive feedback loop between the easing of constraints on non-bank financial institutions and the recovery of overall profitability in the A-share market [3] - Key investment areas include industrial resource chains (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil), non-bank financials (insurance, brokerage), and opportunities in China's equipment exports and manufacturing sectors [3]

【报告导读】本周A股缩量震荡，但也有新的变化。非银机构的约束放松将进一步与全A的盈利回升形成正向循环；而经济上生产出口与全球制造业复苏 的趋势形成共振的概率在增加。短期美元可能有所反弹从而对风险资产带来一定压力；但不影响长期降息趋势，制造业回升所带来的全球实物消耗的增长 是确定性机会。 Summary 摘要 1.A股的"静默"与商品的"躁动" 本周A股市场呈现出典型的缩量特征，市场交易热度显著降温，换手率、两融活跃度及期权隐含波动率均降至阶段低位。这一现象的核心在于，本周国内 缺少新的经济或金融数据，叠加即将召开12月关键政策会议，市场缺乏明确的宏观指引。然而，A股的"静默"与商品市场的"躁动"形成鲜明对比。以白 银、铜为代表的金属价格强势上涨，其深层次逻辑在于，全球大宗商品被长期压低的库存水平，本身体现的是产业链对于政策环境和产业发展进入相对稳 态的适应性。但是，当全球政策环境改变叠加数据中心、电动化等新兴产业正在深刻改变经济结构，库存行为的变化将会较大程度挑战静态的供需视角的 定价。 2.金融市场的变化：非银资金扩容与资本回报企稳回升的共振 本周金融市场出现了一些变化：金监局下调保险公司相关业务风险因子， ...

Group 1: A-shares and Commodity Markets - The A-share market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, with the average turnover rate dropping to the lowest level since July 2023, indicating a cooling in market activity [3][15] - In contrast, commodity markets, particularly metals like silver and copper, are witnessing strong price increases due to historically low inventory levels, which reflect the industry's adaptation to a relatively stable policy environment [3][18] - The recent surge in commodity prices is attributed to the low inventory situation and the potential for new demand driven by emerging industries and policy changes, challenging traditional static supply-demand pricing perspectives [3][18] Group 2: Financial Market Changes - Recent changes in the financial market include a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies and discussions about expanding capital space and leverage limits for brokerages, which may lead to increased market liquidity [4][32] - Historical data suggests that past relaxations of risk factors and leverage policies have resulted in positive market performance, with non-bank financial institutions outperforming the overall A-share market [4][32] Group 3: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - There are positive signs in the domestic economy, particularly in exports, with the November manufacturing PMI showing significant improvement in new export orders, indicating a potential rebound in China's export growth [5][33] - The recovery in external demand is supported by rising export growth rates in South Korea and increased container throughput at major Chinese ports, suggesting a broader recovery in global trade [5][33] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The expectation of a shift to a looser global liquidity environment as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and global trade demand [6][36] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, are beginning to see increased FDI inflows, which are expected to contribute to China's export growth [5][36][37] Group 5: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a rise in December rate cut expectations, although the employment market remains a critical concern, with recent data showing a decline in job numbers [6][52][60] - The market is currently pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, indicating a more optimistic outlook for monetary policy adjustments [6][57]

Group 1 - The State Council has introduced 13 measures to promote private investment, addressing previous concerns about high entry barriers and financing difficulties in certain sectors, which is expected to boost investment activity in new production capacities, emerging services, and new infrastructure [3] - The government has set a clear path for renewable energy consumption, stating that by 2030, new electricity consumption will primarily come from renewable sources, with an annual demand for over 200 million kilowatts, ensuring long-term profitability for the solar, wind, and energy storage industries [3] - The U.S. has suspended its Section 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding industry, signaling a positive shift in U.S.-China trade relations, which is expected to alleviate pressure on shipbuilding and equipment export sectors [4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating the development of applications in 5G and artificial intelligence, focusing on machine vision quality inspection, flexible manufacturing, and AI-enabled manufacturing, indicating growth opportunities in technology stocks [4] - The overall sentiment in the market is expected to improve due to supportive policies in technology growth, renewable energy, and critical resources, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with policy backing and performance expectations [4] - The emphasis is on long-term investment strategies that align with policy directions rather than short-term market fluctuations, highlighting the importance of identifying companies that benefit from policy incentives and have solid performance prospects [4]