Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a new record, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a 1.50% increase and breaking a ten-year high since July 2015, supported by a strong performance across various sectors and increased trading volume [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market exhibited a comprehensive upward trend, with significant contributions from the financial, materials, and technology sectors, driven by ongoing policy benefits and accelerated industrial trends [2]. - The financial sector, particularly securities and insurance, played a crucial role in supporting the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, with companies like New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance reaching new highs [2]. - The cyclical sector saw notable gains due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with the metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, experiencing significant price increases [2]. Emerging Trends - The technology and emerging industries continued to show structural growth, particularly in the brain-computer interface sector, which has become a hot topic, with companies like Beiyikang and Weisi Medical seeing substantial stock price increases [3]. - The brain-computer interface market in China is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26%, indicating its potential as a key growth area in the global market [3]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The recent market rally is characterized by a significant increase in both trading volume and price, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 7% since December 17, 2025, and total market turnover increasing from 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan [4]. - Various funding sources, including foreign capital and margin trading, have contributed to this volume increase, with margin trading balances reaching a historical high of 25,606.48 billion yuan [4]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions are generally optimistic about the A-share market's future performance, attributing the current rally to a confluence of favorable policies, capital influx, and strong fundamentals [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing "spring rally" has room for further development, with a focus on sectors benefiting from AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, such as industrial resources and equipment exports [7].

2026年开年之际，投资者对于新一年市场行情的关注度显著提升，纷纷将目光聚焦于潜在的投资机会与市场动态。在此背 景下，券商密集发布1月份的金股推荐名单，去重后已覆盖212只个股。同时，对于开年首月A股市场走势，券商分析师普遍锚 定"春季躁动"行情，认为政策发力、资金流入等多重积极因素将为市场提供支撑，后续行情值得期待。 市场走势判断方面，"春季躁动"成为券商开年策略的关键词，分析师整体对1月份A股行情持乐观预期。 "政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场或震荡上行。"光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生表示，一方面，从 历史来看，A股市场几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步 夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。此外，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。 对于春季行情的持续性，多家券商给出了更为明确的乐观判断。财通证券研究所总量研究团队策略研究组负责人徐陈翼表 示，随着2025年年底观望调整期结束，叠加2026年险资等新增资金流入、海外降息周期明确等多重积极因素共振，行情大概率 将启动"春季躁动"，整体趋势向上。 本报记者 周尚伃 春季 ...

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.13%，深证成指跌0.58%，创业板指跌1.25%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 中信证券：开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高 我们认为2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是 个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上 的概率更高。 广发策略：26年定价逻辑前瞻，"弹簧"未到极限时 展望2026年：预计美联储在2026年降息两次；欧洲央行可能按兵不动，因德国财政刺激带来的增长；日 本央行因其通胀担忧、且日元贬值压力加大，或成为唯一加息的主要央行；新兴市场多数也在宽松周期 中，但可能仅小幅宽松，反映其外需有支撑但内需偏弱。 申万宏源：上证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深 春季支撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续：2 月春节前反弹是A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技 领域可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3 月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可能更加丰富。4 月特 朗普可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。上证综指连续阳线后， 春季行情仍有纵深。 西部证券：策马乘风 ...

来源：国金证券股份有限公司 波动中的定价 过去一段时间，市场呈现的运行状态是：全球风险资产在低波环境中维持震荡上行，而商品侧则在价格 上行的同时伴随波动率抬升。权益市场来看，2026 年首个交易日全球主要股指迎来开门红，港股市场 表现尤为亮眼，涨幅在全球主要股指中较为领先。港股的走强更偏向于美元流动性外溢下对前期"滞 涨"的补涨，同时产业层面的催化进一步推升股价。商品市场来看，本周资产价格出现高位波动，短期 交易行为占据了主导，同时也暴露出低库存环境下的脆弱性。 长期视角看：当前工业金属货值/美国金融资产和广义货币来处在20 年的低位，实物资产长期处于被低 估状态，库存意愿不断下降。展望未来，当需求侧遭遇产业变迁带来的需求结构冲击，而供给侧遇到了 贸易政策变化，此时低库存叠加货币宽松周期使其更易吸纳金融资本并放大资产价格的波动。中期视角 下，AI 投资和全球制造业周期修复仍构成了大宗商品行情的重要驱动。值得一提的是，近期部分未受 上述交易因素影响品种的行情已开始体现基本面定价的逻辑。更优的投资策略是中长期维持做多思路， 热门品种波动率回落后将迎来布局机会。 基本面：扩内需政策与出口韧性继续形成共振 从最新的制 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen alongside increased volatility. The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.76% and 4% respectively on the first trading day of 2026, driven by a rebound from previous stagnation and industry catalysts [2][12] - The report notes that the current value of industrial metals relative to US financial assets and broad money supply is at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued. The report anticipates that low inventory levels combined with monetary easing will amplify asset price fluctuations in the future [2][16] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on maintaining a long position in the medium to long term, with opportunities arising after the volatility of popular commodities decreases [2][16] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for December exceeded market expectations, rising to 50.1%, indicating a positive shift in the economic fundamentals. Key highlights include a seasonal rebound in production, procurement, and business expectations, along with a rise in inventory indices [3][31] - The report discusses the implementation of new policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and an investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment. These measures are expected to smooth out fluctuations in domestic demand in 2026 [3][31] - Export orders have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in container throughput at ports and improved export growth rates in South Korea and Vietnam, indicating that exports remain a crucial component of the economic recovery [3][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the "spring rally" may have already begun, with historical data suggesting a correlation between December and January market performances. The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on the recovery of global manufacturing activities and their impact on Chinese assets [4][41] - The report emphasizes that the internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data exceeding expectations and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts. It recommends focusing on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility for better investment outcomes [5][54] - The report identifies several sectors for investment, including industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery and capital market expansion [5][54]

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]

Market News - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the December PMI data on December 31, with November's manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October [4] - The People's Bank of China aims to significantly increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds invested in A-shares, promoting a virtuous cycle between capital market stability and high-quality economic development [6] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, expected to save over 1.9 billion yuan in total [7] Sector Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, focusing on key technologies and industry standards [11] - The 2025 Shenzhen Brain Conference aims to create a platform for industry integration and innovation [13] - The 2025 China Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will discuss policies and technological breakthroughs that will impact the green hydrogen industry chain [14] Individual Stock Events - CATL plans to apply sodium batteries on a large scale in various sectors including battery swapping and energy storage in 2026 [17] - Xiaomi's co-founder plans to reduce holdings of up to $2 billion in B-class common stock [17] - ST Huluwawa and its chairman are under investigation for information disclosure violations [17] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 34 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 3.697 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 58.895 billion yuan [18] - The peak lock-up expiration date is December 30, with 13 companies releasing shares worth a total of 27.645 billion yuan [18] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on communication and resource-related ETFs [25] - Guojin Securities identifies new investment themes emerging in 2026, emphasizing the importance of AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing [26] - Zhongtai Securities believes there is still upward potential in the market before the Spring Festival, with opportunities for low-cost positioning [27]

Group 1 - The article highlights that among 360 industry/theme ETFs, 39 reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus is on structural opportunities in a volatile market, with sectors like chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy being prioritized due to their long-term ROE potential, alongside emerging themes like commercial aerospace [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of the RMB appreciation trend and its implications for investment strategies, particularly in brokerage and insurance sectors [3] Group 2 - The article discusses favorable conditions for the spring market rally, driven by liquidity and investor expectations, with a focus on the A500 ETF and potential market fluctuations at year-end and early next year [4] - It notes that the RMB's recent strength, driven by corporate settlement demand and a favorable external environment, could lead to a capital market rally, benefiting sectors reliant on imported materials and those with significant foreign currency liabilities [6] - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and manufacturing sectors, particularly in AI and global manufacturing recovery, recommending investments in industrial resources and equipment exports [8] Group 3 - The article indicates that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally phase, supported by optimistic institutional investor sentiment and favorable policy expectations [9] - It suggests that the spring market is likely to exhibit structural characteristics with rapid sector rotation, encouraging investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [13][14] - The article highlights the potential for a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [15]

Core Viewpoint - The new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, characterized by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across manufacturing sectors and extended trading ranges for bulk commodities, with China's manufacturing advantages becoming more evident and reflected in the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and industrial resource products that resonate with the global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the cycle bottom, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles, as well as domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] - Capture the recovery in inbound tourism and the increase in residents' income, leading to a rebound in consumption in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns in non-bank sectors, including insurance and brokerage firms [1]