电力设备 2026 年 01 月 11 日 行 业 研 究 行 业 电力设备 产业周跟踪：光伏锂电取消出口退税利好短期抢 装和长期发展，继续重视商业航天太空光伏赛道 投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：四部门召开座谈会规范锂电池竞争秩序，拟取消 锂电池出口退税。1）四部门召开座谈会，进一步规范动力和储能电池产业 竞争秩序；2）中国拟取消或降低电池相关产品出口退税。 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点：光伏出口退税正式取消，加速落后产能出清与全 球化布局。1 月 9 日，财政部、税务总局发布公告，宣布自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。这一政策标志着光伏行业"退税红 利"时代终结。我们认为，虽然短期内会对企业出口成本造成直接冲击， 但在政策生效前的"窗口期"内有望迎来抢装潮与订单激增；长期看，此 举将有效抑制低价内卷，加速落后产能出清，倒逼企业向技术创新与品牌 建设转型，并推动中国光伏企业加速全球化产能布局，利好具备高品牌溢 价与技术优势的龙头企业。 风电板块核心观点：江苏多个海风项目获得核准，国内深远海海上风 电项目持续向前推进。1）广东 1GW 海风项目中标候选人公示，江苏 0.8GW ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry, with a shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency [3][18] - The wind power sector is experiencing growth in overseas markets, with several offshore wind projects progressing positively [31][32] - The lithium battery segment is seeing a rise in electrolyte prices, which is impacting costs, while production and sales data for November show significant growth [2][10][11] - The energy storage sector is witnessing a substantial increase in domestic installations and overseas orders, indicating strong demand [4][51] - The power equipment sector is addressing the challenges posed by AI energy demands, with significant investments in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) projects [61][68] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have increased, with electrolyte prices rising significantly [10] - November saw a month-on-month increase in battery production and sales, with total production reaching 176.3 GWh and sales at 179.4 GWh [11] - Companies with cost advantages and those expanding internationally are recommended for investment [12] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The annual conference emphasized the transition to quality and efficiency, with policies aimed at regulating capacity and monitoring prices [18][19] - The industry is expected to stabilize as irrational competition is curtailed through standards and self-regulation [19][27] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - Domestic wind power companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with several projects underway [31][32] - Recent project developments include significant contracts in Asia and the Middle East, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [31][32] 3. Energy Storage Sector - November saw a significant increase in new energy storage installations, with expectations to exceed last year's total [46][47] - Overseas orders for energy storage reached 41.8 GWh, with Australia and Chile being key markets [51][52] - The sector is experiencing price increases in lithium carbonate and battery cells, reflecting ongoing cost pressures [53] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The report discusses the implications of AI on energy demands, with Nvidia's summit highlighting the urgent need for energy solutions [61][62] - The State Grid has completed four HVDC projects, enhancing the national energy transmission network [68] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown improvement, indicating a stable production environment and increased demand for robotics [71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing trends in various sectors, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic, wind energy, nuclear fusion, energy storage, electric power equipment, industrial control, and hydrogen energy [2][4][5][6][34][41][46][59][66] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The State Administration for Market Regulation is proposing to standardize pricing behaviors in the automotive industry, with major battery cell companies announcing price increases due to rising raw material costs [10][11] - Companies like CATL and others with cost advantages are expected to widen their competitive gap [12] Photovoltaic Sector - A new "silicon material storage platform" has been established to stabilize silicon prices above 60,000 yuan/ton and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [18] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to address "involution" in competition, marking a shift towards government-led market consolidation [18] Wind Energy Sector - The central economic work conference stresses the importance of the "dual carbon" strategy and promotes a comprehensive green transition [34] - A project to develop a 25MW offshore wind turbine has been initiated, focusing on technological advancements for deep-sea wind energy [35] Nuclear Fusion Sector - The Tokamak fusion smart digital power station project has been launched, marking a significant step towards commercializing fusion energy in China [41] - The project aims to create a digital twin model for fusion reactors, enhancing the integration of technology and capital [42] Energy Storage Sector - The AIDC energy storage market is projected to experience explosive growth, with lithium battery shipments expected to reach 300GWh by 2030 [46] - Leading companies are accelerating their layouts in the AIDC sector, with significant collaborations underway [47][48] Electric Power Equipment Sector - NVIDIA is set to hold a closed-door summit to address power shortages in the AI era, indicating a proactive approach to energy solutions [59] - The Zhejiang power "big ring" project is expected to be completed by 2029, which will be the first provincial ultra-high voltage AC ring network in the country [60] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - Chery's Mocha robot is set to deliver its 1,000th unit by 2025, indicating growth in the robotics market [66] - SoftBank is reportedly negotiating a significant investment in Skild AI, highlighting the increasing interest in AI-driven robotics [68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in various sectors, including electric vehicles, solar energy, wind energy, energy storage, power equipment, industrial control, robotics, and hydrogen energy [2][3][4][5][9][18][28][36][50][59] Electric Vehicle and Lithium Battery Sector - Six departments issued a three-year plan to double the number of charging stations, aiming to add over 28 million new charging facilities by 2027, with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for new energy vehicles in September [9][10] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a historical high of 1.296 million units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [10] Solar Energy Sector - Anticipation of two major favorable policies aimed at curbing price competition in the solar industry, with a focus on high-quality development [18][19] - The report emphasizes the need for effective policies to eliminate outdated production capacity and rejuvenate the solar industry [19] Wind Energy Sector - Multiple key offshore wind projects are undergoing intensive bidding, with a notable procurement of 1.52GW wind turbines by State Power Investment Corporation at competitive prices [28][30] - The report indicates that these projects will lay a solid foundation for installed capacity in 2026 and 2027 [28] Energy Storage Sector - Strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to approach 600GWh by 2025, with a significant increase in shipments in Q3 2025 [36][37] - The first self-regulatory practice guidelines for energy storage systems have been released, focusing on safety and quality standards [38] Power Equipment Sector - The third batch of bidding for State Grid metering products has commenced, with a total of 16.96 million electric meters up for bid [52] - The Qinggui DC project has entered the feasibility study stage, which will enable the transmission of 36 billion kWh of electricity annually to Guangxi [56] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The establishment of a new intelligent transmission system headquarters in Hefei, with a planned investment of 1 billion yuan, aims to enhance the competitiveness of the robotics industry [59][60] - The listing of Yunji Technology on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant milestone, with a first-day increase of 49% [61][62] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced investment measures to support five key areas, while General Motors has halted the development of the next-generation hydrogen fuel cell [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for the lithium battery sector, with iron-lithium battery prices continuing to rise and significant breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [1][8] - The photovoltaic sector is supported by government initiatives aimed at promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy industry, with expectations for price stabilization as excess capacity is eliminated [2][17] - The wind power sector aims for a total installed capacity of 360 GW by 2035, with ongoing tenders for offshore wind projects in Hainan [2][30] - The energy storage sector is seeing new technology layouts from government departments, with recent price increases in battery cells and tight supply conditions [3][42] - The electric power equipment sector is experiencing increased capital expenditure forecasts from major companies like Alibaba, indicating growth potential [4][49] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - Iron-lithium battery prices have increased by 0.15% to 0.33 CNY/Wh for 100Ah cells, and 0.17% to 0.30 CNY/Wh for 280Ah cells [8] - Solid-state battery advancements have been published in Nature, moving towards a lithium-rich manganese-based cathode and metallic lithium anode [9] - The automotive sector plans to implement solid-state batteries by 2026, with consumer electronics rapidly adopting semi-solid batteries [10] Photovoltaic Sector - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the renewable energy sector, addressing "involution" in the photovoltaic industry [2][17] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in prices as outdated capacity is phased out due to new national standards and industry self-regulation [2][18] - Recent price trends show fluctuations in silicon material and module prices, with expectations for future price increases [19][21] Wind Power Sector - China's wind and solar installed capacity target for 2035 is set at 360 GW, with significant growth expected in the coming years [30] - Recent tenders for offshore wind projects in Hainan indicate ongoing investment and development in the sector [31] Energy Storage Sector - The government has released guidelines for new energy storage technologies, focusing on solid-state and liquid flow batteries [3][39] - The price of battery cells has seen slight increases, with supply remaining tight [42][45] - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions in both domestic and international markets [46] Electric Power Equipment Sector - Alibaba's increased capital expenditure forecast suggests a robust growth trajectory for the electric power equipment sector [49] - The report notes the significance of the Yantai-Weihai high-voltage project, which is expected to be completed by 2026 [50] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The report discusses the introduction of various robotic technologies at the 2025 Industrial Expo, indicating advancements in automation [56][57] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with an increase in the PMI index suggesting improved demand for industrial control components [56] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines for the high-quality development of hydrogen energy equipment, with significant projects being approved [4][66] - The report highlights the approval of a large-scale green hydrogen project by Goldwind Technology, indicating growth in the hydrogen sector [67][68] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in green hydrogen production and fuel cell systems [69][72]

Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium material prices are showing signs of bottom reversal, with leading companies delivering dry process equipment and South Korea initiating a hundred-ton lithium sulfide expansion [1] - In August, battery production and installation maintained high-speed year-on-year growth [1] - Solid-state batteries: leading companies are delivering dry process equipment, and ISU in South Korea is starting the construction of a hundred-ton lithium sulfide facility [1] Photovoltaic Sector - The price mechanism for near-term consumption of renewable energy is being improved, with distributed photovoltaic/storage and green electricity direct connection receiving certain benefits [1] - On September 12, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to enhance the price mechanism for promoting near-term consumption of renewable energy, requiring public grids to provide reliable power supply services for integrated projects [1] - The policy supports near-term consumption of renewable energy by clarifying grid connection responsibilities and safety interfaces, which will significantly enhance the attractiveness of investments in distributed photovoltaic and commercial storage [1] Wind Power Sector - Daikin Heavy Industries has recently received multiple offshore wind orders from Europe, indicating strong demand in the European offshore wind market [2] - The delivery of the world's largest floating wind turbine foundation has been completed, showing significant inflation in the usage of floating foundations [2] Energy Storage Sector - By the end of 2025, the new energy storage installation scale is expected to exceed 180 GW, with Ningxia announcing a storage capacity electricity price of 165 yuan/kW starting from January 2026 [2] - Two ministries have issued documents clarifying the energy storage installation targets and profit models, indicating a continued optimistic outlook for domestic energy storage [2] Electric Equipment Sector - Three departments have issued a notice on the "Electric Equipment Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," which is expected to benefit leading enterprises [2] - The research work for the Long Electric Power project entering Sichuan has been completed and is expected to be approved within the year [2] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - UBTECH has once again set a record for the largest single order in the global humanoid robot industry, while Zivariable has secured nearly 1 billion yuan in Series A financing [3] - In August, the PMI showed a slight increase, indicating positive trends in the industrial control and robotics sector [3] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration are promoting the integration of artificial intelligence and renewable energy for hydrogen production [3] - Cummins has delivered the largest scale PEM electrolyzer to date, and a feasibility study report for a 100,000-ton hydrogen and ammonia integrated project in Gansu is being procured [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials prices have reversed from the bottom, with significant growth in battery production and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][11][12] - The solar energy sector benefits from improved pricing mechanisms for near-consumption of renewable energy, enhancing the attractiveness of distributed solar and energy storage investments [3][22][24] - The wind energy sector sees increased demand with major orders for offshore wind projects and the delivery of the largest floating wind turbine foundation [3][37][38] - The energy storage sector is projected to reach over 180GW of installed capacity by 2025, with new pricing mechanisms for storage capacity being implemented [4][46][48] - The power equipment sector is supported by government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth and enhancing the quality of equipment supply [5][60][61] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery material prices have shown a bottom reversal, with lithium carbonate prices rising from 61,400 CNY/ton to 73,000 CNY/ton [11] - In August, the total battery production reached 139.6 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [12] - Solid-state battery technology is advancing with the delivery of dry-mixing equipment and the initiation of lithium sulfide production in South Korea [13] Solar Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve pricing mechanisms for renewable energy consumption [22] - The policy mandates that renewable energy self-consumption must account for at least 60% of total generation and 30% of total consumption by 2030 [23][24] - The solar industry is experiencing price stability in polysilicon and silicon wafer segments, with expectations for price increases in battery cells and modules [28][30] Wind Energy Sector - Daikin Heavy Industries has secured multiple offshore wind orders in Europe, indicating strong demand in the sector [37] - The delivery of the world's largest floating wind turbine foundation marks a significant milestone, with increased demand for floating foundations [38] Energy Storage Sector - The new action plan aims for 180GW of new energy storage capacity by the end of 2025, with a current installed capacity of 95GW [46] - The pricing mechanism for energy storage capacity will be implemented at 165 CNY/kW starting January 2026 [48][49] - The market is expected to see a shift towards integrated energy trading and capacity compensation mechanisms [47] Power Equipment Sector - The government has issued a plan to stabilize growth in the power equipment industry, targeting a 6% annual revenue growth for traditional equipment [60][61] - The plan emphasizes improving equipment supply quality and expanding domestic demand for renewable energy equipment [61][62] - Ongoing projects like the "Long Electric into Sichuan" high-voltage direct current project are expected to be approved within the year [66] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The sector has seen significant developments with the largest single order for humanoid robots and substantial funding rounds for robotics companies [69][70][71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The battery sector is witnessing significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, with a penetration rate of 55.3% for new energy vehicles in August [2][10] - The photovoltaic sector is set for high-quality development following new government policies aimed at curbing low-price competition [3][17] - The energy storage sector has reached a record high in bidding scale, with 25.8GW/69.4GWh in August, indicating strong market demand [4][35] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Battery companies are making substantial progress in solid-state battery development, with industry-wide commercialization on the horizon [9] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.3% in August, with expectations for market growth in September due to seasonal demand and subsidy implementation [10][11] Photovoltaic Sector - New government initiatives aim to eliminate low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting high-quality growth [3][17] - The plan includes measures for better industry planning, quality management, and international cooperation [18] Wind Power Sector - The successful delivery of the Fan Stone II project's submarine cable and new orders from Europe highlight ongoing growth in the wind power sector [27][28] - The wind power supply chain is experiencing stable pricing for key materials, with some fluctuations noted [29] Energy Storage Sector - August saw a historic high in energy storage bidding, with a total scale of 25.8GW/69.4GWh, driven by large-scale project completions [35] - The average price for 2-hour energy storage systems has dropped below 0.5 yuan/Wh, indicating a trend towards cost reduction [36][37] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The South Grid's first batch of metering products achieved a total bid of 3.462 billion yuan, with significant contributions from leading companies [49][50] - The Jinshang-Hubei ±800 kV UHVDC project has commenced operation, enhancing power transmission capabilities [51] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The PMI index showed improvement in August, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand, which is expected to boost orders for industrial control components [58] - The establishment of the Wenzhou Artificial Intelligence Bureau aims to promote AI development, with significant contracts awarded in the humanoid robot sector [60] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The Yalong River Basin's hydrogen energy development plan is underway, with significant projects being awarded, indicating growth in the hydrogen sector [66][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector shows an increase in production in August, with solid-state battery development accelerating [2][9] - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing energy efficiency inspections by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity [3][17] - The wind power sector has seen significant growth in offshore wind capacity, positively impacting turbine bidding prices [3][27] - The energy storage sector is advancing with new regulations and a significant number of projects in progress [3][33] - The electric equipment sector is benefiting from strong performance in the data center segment and increased capital expenditures from North American CSP manufacturers [4][44] - The industrial control and robotics sector is experiencing a slight decline in PMI, but the global robotics market is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2029, with China capturing half of the market share [4][51] - The hydrogen sector is seeing the revision of industry standards and significant project signings, indicating growth potential [4][61] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Production in August increased, with lithium-ion battery production reaching 91.0 GWh, a 1% month-on-month increase and a 57% year-on-year increase [9] - Solid-state battery development is prioritized by leading companies, with significant orders being placed [10][11] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated energy efficiency inspections for 41 polysilicon companies, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and regulatory compliance [3][17] - The price of polysilicon has risen, indicating a positive market trend [19] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - Offshore wind capacity added in the first half of the year reached 2.49 GW, a 200% year-on-year increase [27] - The average utilization rate of wind power decreased to 93.2%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [27] 3. Energy Storage Sector - New regulations in Shandong and Ningxia are promoting the entry of renewable energy into the market [33][34] - A total of 318 energy storage projects exceeding 124 GWh are underway across 21 regions [37] 4. Electric Equipment Sector - The company achieved a revenue of $2.638 billion in Q2 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong data center performance [44] - Major tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [44] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline [51] - The global robotics market is projected to exceed $400 billion by 2029, with significant contributions from Chinese manufacturers [52] 6. Hydrogen Sector - The National Energy Administration has revised 10 hydrogen industry standards, enhancing regulatory clarity [61] - A major green ammonia project with an annual production capacity of 240,000 tons has been signed, marking significant growth in the hydrogen sector [63][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of "anti-involution" policies in the photovoltaic sector, leading to an increase in polysilicon prices [3][18] - The offshore wind power sector is positioned to play a crucial role in promoting high-quality development of the marine economy [28][29] - The energy storage sector benefits from the implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" in the U.S. and the launch of a significant subsidy program in Australia [37][40] - The approval of two new ultra-high voltage transmission lines is expected to accelerate construction in the power equipment sector [46][47] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery production in July remains high, preparing for peak season, with significant year-on-year increases in iron-lithium production [9][11] - Global solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with several companies announcing advancements in solid-state battery technology [10][11] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the competitive landscape, with a focus on orderly capacity release [3][18] - Polysilicon prices have increased, while other components like silicon wafers and battery cells face price pressures [20][21][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from supply-side reforms and demand recovery [26] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The government emphasizes the importance of offshore wind power in the marine economy, with new policies expected to support its development [28][29] - Significant offshore wind projects are being initiated, indicating a shift towards deep-sea wind power development [30] 3. Energy Storage Sector - The "Inflation Reduction Act" in the U.S. has been enacted, extending tax credits for energy storage projects [37][38] - Australia has launched a substantial subsidy program for household energy storage systems, aiming to increase adoption [40][43] - The report highlights the potential for growth in both domestic and international energy storage markets [44] 4. Power Equipment Sector - Two new ultra-high voltage transmission lines have been approved, marking a significant step in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for power infrastructure [46] - National peak electricity load has reached a record high, indicating ongoing demand growth [47] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - Siemens has completed a $5.1 billion acquisition, enhancing its digital industrial software capabilities [53][54] - New collaborative robots have been launched, indicating advancements in automation technology [55] 6. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The report anticipates that national market-oriented electricity trading will exceed 6 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2024 [61] - A large-scale green hydrogen pipeline project has been approved, indicating progress in hydrogen energy infrastructure [62] - Investment opportunities in hydrogen energy are highlighted, particularly in companies involved in fuel cell systems and hydrogen production [63]