Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a cyclical downturn, with companies facing significant operational pressures, but there are signs of improvement such as narrowing losses and recovering gross margins [3][4][12]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of the latest disclosures, the photovoltaic sector remains at the bottom of the cycle, with most companies reporting losses, including major players like TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar, and LONGi Green Energy, with expected losses ranging from tens to hundreds of billions [3][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association reported a 16.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the main industry chain in the first three quarters of 2025, while gross margin improved to 3.64%, reaching 5.61% in Q3 [3][4]. Group 2: Losses and Variability - Despite widespread losses, there is a notable divergence in the extent of losses among companies. For instance, LONGi Green Energy's expected loss of 60 to 65 billion is a significant reduction from the previous year's loss of 85.92 billion [6]. - Some companies, like Daqo New Energy, are also showing signs of resilience with losses narrowing by 52.17% to 63.21% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is facing a severe imbalance between supply and demand, exacerbated by concentrated capacity release, leading to aggressive price competition and declining product prices [8]. - Key raw material costs, such as silicon and silver paste, have risen sharply in the second half of 2025, but this cost increase has not been effectively passed down to downstream products, further squeezing profit margins [8]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are adopting various strategies to navigate the downturn, focusing on technological innovation, global expansion, and business collaboration [10]. - R&D and innovation are seen as critical for overcoming challenges, with companies like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar investing in advanced technologies and exploring new market applications [10]. - The integration of energy storage solutions alongside photovoltaic manufacturing is emerging as a new competitive focus, with companies like JinkoSolar and Trina Solar emphasizing the growth of their storage businesses [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Industry leaders believe that the current downturn does not signify a decline but rather a necessary adjustment towards high-quality development in anticipation of future demand surges [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea, which is expected to positively impact the domestic photovoltaic industry by alleviating price competition and promoting high-quality development [1]. - The A-share market saw a positive opening on January 14, 2026, with significant gains in the new energy sector, particularly in stocks like Fulin Precision and Tianhua New Energy, indicating strong investor interest in this segment [1]. - CITIC Securities forecasts that the photovoltaic industry will enter a new phase of high-quality development, driven by technological innovation and brand building, with leading companies expected to increase their market share as outdated production capacity is phased out [1]. Group 2 - The创业板新能源ETF华夏 (159368) is the largest ETF fund tracking the创业板新能源 index, which includes various sectors such as batteries and photovoltaics, highlighting its significance in the new energy market [2]. - The fund has a high elasticity with a maximum increase of 20%, and it features the lowest fees, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2]. - As of December 30, 2025, the fund's scale reached 676 million, with an average daily trading volume of 70.75 million in the past month, indicating strong market activity and investor engagement [2].

中信证券研报表示，近期财政部及国家税务总局决定自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退 税，短期来看，我们预计光伏及储能企业面临出口成本直接增加、盈利能力下降的压力，预计窗口期内 光伏组件出货量迅速增加，SMM测算出口退税生效后光伏组件出口量或将下滑5%-10%。我们预计储能 龙头海外涨价传导顺利，政策提高出海门槛优化供给，看好海外储能高景气兑现。长远来看，我们认为 过去光伏行业凭借低价无序竞争造成的"内卷"状况有望缓解，技术创新迭代及品牌建设有望成为主要方 向，落后产能出清速度将会加快，龙头企业市占率继续提升，光伏行业有望迈入高质量发展的新阶段， 推荐光伏及储能投资机会。 ...

中信证券研报表示，近期财政部及国家税务总局决定自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退 税，短期来看，我们预计光伏及储能企业面临出口成本直接增加、盈利能力下降的压力，预计窗口期内 光伏组件出货量迅速增加，SMM测算出口退税生效后光伏组件出口量或将下滑5%-10%。我们预计储能 龙头海外涨价传导顺利，政策提高出海门槛优化供给，看好海外储能高景气兑现。长远来看，我们认为 过去光伏行业凭借低价无序竞争造成的"内卷"状况有望缓解，技术创新迭代及品牌建设有望成为主要方 向，落后产能出清速度将会加快，龙头企业市占率继续提升，光伏行业有望迈入高质量发展的新阶段， 推荐光伏及储能投资机会。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry into a phase of high-quality development [1]. - A "window period" is anticipated, leading to increased overseas orders and production ramp-up in Q1 2026, similar to previous phases of accelerated installations, which is expected to improve the performance of export-oriented photovoltaic companies [2]. - After the policy window closes, overseas component prices are likely to be renegotiated, as China, being the largest exporter of photovoltaic components, will have stronger pricing power due to the cancellation of the rebate, which is expected to lead to price increases [2]. - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a response to the call for reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and reshape the market landscape [2]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and strong brand/channel advantages are expected to benefit from the narrowing cost disadvantage of local manufacturing, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to enhance the industry's quality of development and reduce fiscal funds being transferred to overseas terminals [2]. - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages (TOPCon/BC), strong brands, and distribution channels will continue to gain market share [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with overseas production capabilities, such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others, which are expected to benefit from the "price adjustment and capacity exit" [2]. - Companies that are advancing new technologies and material upgrades, such as Aiko Solar and Dongfang Risheng, are also highlighted for their potential to enhance product efficiency and pricing power [2]. - Cost-advantaged silicon material companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy are recommended for investment consideration [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided, detailing the estimated net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies in the industry, indicating varying performance expectations for 2025 to 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [5][7] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to lead to a shift from low-price competition to competition based on technology, branding, and service upgrades [7] - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages and overseas production capacity are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to low-price competition exacerbated by export tax rebates, which have been utilized by some companies to lower prices in overseas markets [5][7] - The cancellation of these rebates aims to rationalize overseas market prices and reduce international trade friction [5] Short-term Impact - A transition period of nearly three months is set before the policy takes effect, likely leading to a surge in exports in Q1 2026 as companies rush to take advantage of the remaining rebate benefits [6] - In the first seven months of 2025, domestic photovoltaic cell and module exports amounted to 111.207 billion, a decrease of 22.64% compared to the same period in 2024, while from August to November 2025, exports increased by 23.81% year-on-year [6] Long-term Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality competition within the industry [7] - Leading companies are anticipated to leverage their technological advantages and brand influence to maintain pricing power and gain market share [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading battery component companies with technological advantages and overseas production capabilities, specifically mentioning Aiko Solar and other notable companies such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Tongwei, Junda, Dongfang Risheng, and Hengdian East Magnetic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulatory actions by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in China aim to enhance compliance in the photovoltaic industry, promoting fair competition and sustainable development [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic sector has seen a rise in stock prices, with companies like GCL-Poly Energy (00451) increasing by 6.76% to HKD 0.79, Xinte Energy (01799) up by 5.22% to HKD 7.66, GCL-Technology (03800) rising by 2.75% to HKD 1.12, and Xinyi Solar (00968) gaining 1.32% to HKD 3.06 [1] - The SAMR's initiative includes strengthening product quality supervision and enforcing laws against price collusion and unfair competition, which is expected to reshape industry competition rules [1] - The long-term goal of these measures is to shift the industry focus from homogeneous low-price competition to technological innovation and high-quality development, benefiting leading companies with technological and cost advantages [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The photovoltaic equipment concept stocks surged significantly in the morning session, with many stocks hitting the daily limit [1][4] - The overall A-share market experienced a rise followed by a sharp decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high before falling [1][2] - The trading volume increased, indicating a broader market trend where declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones [1][2] Group 2: Photovoltaic Sector Performance - The photovoltaic sector index opened high and rose over 4%, reaching a new high in over a month, with half-day trading volume exceeding the previous day's total [4] - Major companies like Yijing Photovoltaic (600537) and GCL-Poly Energy (002506) saw rapid price increases, with Yijing hitting the daily limit within three minutes of opening [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The "2025 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference" focused on the industry's transformation and discussed strategies for high-quality development [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for orderly exit of backward production capacity and dynamic balance in capacity management [6] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for U.S. electricity demand growth, which is expected to benefit the photovoltaic sector due to increasing demand from data centers [6] - Galaxy Securities noted that the photovoltaic industry has faced losses for eight consecutive quarters but anticipates a turnaround in profitability by the second quarter of 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Longi Green Energy, Zhong Baoshen, advocates for transcending competitive thinking and enhancing collaboration in technology innovation, standard construction, and market expansion to address challenges in the photovoltaic industry and promote high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Developments - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved large-scale, high-proportion, market-oriented, and high-quality development, significantly contributing to the new energy system and global energy transition [1]. - The industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including structural overcapacity, increasing trade barriers, grid absorption issues, and technological iteration [1]. - The central government has emphasized the need to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, shifting the industry focus from "scale development" to "high-quality development" [1]. Group 2: Future Directions and Innovations - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan and a critical phase for global climate action, necessitating higher levels of technological innovation to provide affordable and sustainable green energy solutions [2]. - Longi Green Energy plans to increase R&D and innovation efforts, particularly in next-generation photovoltaic technologies like perovskite tandem cells, to seize global technological leadership [2]. - The company aims to deepen the integration of photovoltaics with energy storage, hydrogen energy, and smart grids, developing integrated solutions for "light-storage-hydrogen-intelligence" systems to enhance energy system friendliness [2]. - In response to the central economic work meeting's call to address "involutionary" competition, Longi Green Energy is committed to collaborating with peers and industry stakeholders to promote high-quality industry development and create a healthy market environment [2].

Group 1 - The core message of the conference is to advocate for collaboration in technology innovation, standard development, and market expansion to build a more open and inclusive industry ecosystem in the photovoltaic sector [2] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved significant growth, providing critical support for the new energy system and contributing to global energy transition [2] - The industry faces multiple challenges, including structural overcapacity, increasing trade barriers, grid absorption issues, and technological iteration [2] Group 2 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan and is a crucial year for global climate action [3] - The company aims to enhance technological innovation to provide affordable and sustainable green energy solutions globally, focusing on the industrialization of next-generation photovoltaic technologies like perovskite tandem cells [3] - The company is committed to deepening the integration of photovoltaic with energy storage, hydrogen energy, and smart grids, developing integrated solutions to improve energy system friendliness [3]