2025 年 9 月 15 日 行业研究 8 月，一二线城市新房价格环比小幅下跌，但降幅较上月已收窄，三线城市价格 环比下跌、降幅略有扩大；一二三线城市新房价格同比均小幅下降，且降幅较上 月均有收窄。前期上海、北京等城市陆续出台了当地房地产市场宽松政策，助力 当地市场止跌回稳，且均有一定成效；在 8 月房价数据中，一线城市表现最为坚 挺。期待宽松政策效力逐渐体现到基本面中，带动地产链需求回暖。 国家发改委与多国达成多份合作文件，其中包括共建"一带一路"相关规划。 8 月 30 日至 9 月 4 日，习近平主席出席 2025 年上海合作组织峰会、中国人民 抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年纪念活动，并同与会外方领导人举行 系列活动。期间，国家发展改革委同有关国家达成 30 余份合作文件。重点包括： 共建"一带一路"方面，同哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等签署关于共建"一带一 路"合作规划，同古巴签署"一带一路"合作重点项目和任务清单的谅解备忘录， 同巴基斯坦签署关于中巴经济走廊合作对接的谅解备忘录。 8 月新房价格降幅总体收窄，发改委签署"一带一路"相关合作规划 ——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 周报（9 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for non-metallic building materials and "Overweight" for construction and engineering [5][8]. Core Insights - The central government has issued opinions to promote high-quality urban development, emphasizing the need for better housing construction and urban infrastructure, which is expected to benefit leading companies with strong industry chains and financing capabilities [1]. - Shanghai has accelerated the renovation of urban villages, with 21 new projects planned for 2024, which is anticipated to benefit regional construction companies [2]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies such as China State Construction, Deep City Transportation, Tunnel Shares, and others in the construction and infrastructure sectors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Urban Development Initiatives - The central government aims to systematically promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities, while also supporting the renovation of old housing and urban infrastructure [7]. - Emphasis is placed on enhancing urban infrastructure, including optimizing layouts, improving safety management, and integrating modern communication networks [7]. Company Focus - Current investment recommendations highlight companies in new materials such as China Jushi and Guoen Co., as well as construction and infrastructure firms like China State Construction and Dongfang Yuhong [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector and a "Buy" rating for non-metallic building materials [1][11]. Core Insights - The Yajiang Hydropower Station has officially commenced construction with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, differing structurally from the Three Gorges Dam [3]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project in Tibet will implement a run-of-river development approach, constructing five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency through cascading water flow [3]. - The average cost of newly approved hydropower projects in 2023 is estimated at 20,344 yuan per kW, suggesting an expected installed capacity of 60 million kW for the Yarlung Tsangpo project [3]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yajiang Hydropower Station project is expected to catalyze future developments, with the next phases likely involving "bidding" and "performance release" [4]. - The project structure is anticipated to differ significantly from traditional reservoir dams, such as the Three Gorges Dam [4]. Comparative Analysis - The Zangmu Hydropower Station, the first large-scale hydropower station on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, has a total installed capacity of 510,000 kW and a total investment of 9.6 billion yuan, with a construction period of nearly eight years [5]. - The Dadu River Hard Beam Package Hydropower Station, with an installed capacity of 1.116 million kW, showcases advanced construction techniques that may parallel those of the Yajiang project [6]. Supplier Insights - The report identifies potential suppliers for the Yajiang project based on bidding data from the Zangmu Hydropower Station, highlighting companies such as China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and Huaxin Cement as key players [7]. - The report notes significant stock price increases for several suppliers since July 21, with China Power Construction and Huaxin Cement both seeing a rise of 33% [7]. Investment Recommendations - The commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to generate new demand for construction and materials, prompting a focus on companies involved in hydropower engineering and infrastructure, such as China Power Construction and China Railway [8]. - Material suppliers like Huaxin Cement and equipment providers such as Tianqiao Hoisting are also recommended for investment consideration [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector and a "Buy" rating for non-metallic building materials [5]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized urban renewal and transformation rather than large-scale demolition, focusing on improving existing urban infrastructure and addressing public needs [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) highlighted the need to prevent inefficient and redundant construction in the low-altitude economy, advocating for a more orderly and high-quality development approach [2]. - The public REITs market remained stable, with the CSI REITs (Total Return) Index slightly increasing by 0.06% to 1104.55, and a year-to-date increase of 14.12% [3]. Summary by Sections Urban Development - The focus is on upgrading existing urban areas and enhancing quality rather than new large-scale projects, with a strong demand for renovation in first-tier cities [1]. - The emphasis on safety and resilience in urban infrastructure, including the upgrade of old pipelines and disaster prevention measures, is crucial for future urban planning [1]. Low-Altitude Economy - The NDRC's meeting stressed the importance of developing the low-altitude economy based on local conditions, avoiding blind imitation, and preventing low-end competition [2]. - The lack of a unified regulatory framework and stable business models in the low-altitude economy may slow down infrastructure development [2]. Public REITs Market - The public REITs market is expected to see concentrated trading of Q2 performance reports, with products showing strong operational performance likely to rebound slightly [3]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Honglu Steel Structure and China Construction, which are expected to benefit from market recovery and operational improvements [3].

Investment Rating - Non-metallic building materials: Buy (Maintain) [5] - Construction and engineering: Overweight (Maintain) [5] Core Viewpoints - The State Council emphasizes the need to construct a new model for real estate development, aiming to stabilize and recover the real estate market [1] - Guangzhou's proposal to eliminate restrictive measures and reduce down payment and interest rates signals a positive market outlook [2] - The current market performance shows a decline in key indices, with the CITIC building materials index down 2.16% and the CITIC construction index down 1.27% [3] Market Data Summary - Cement: The national average price for PO42.5 cement is 365.70 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.45 CNY/ton; the national cement enterprise shipment rate is 45.7%, down 2.3 percentage points [3] - Glass: The current spot price for glass is 1203 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton; glass inventory stands at 69.685 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% [3] - Fiberglass: The price for winding direct yarn is 4550 CNY/ton, unchanged; G75 electronic yarn is priced at 9100 CNY/ton, unchanged [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies such as Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port Bay, China National Materials, and Keda Manufacturing due to their respective growth prospects and market conditions [3]