固定收益 | 动态跟踪 把握 3~4Y 凸性较强的品种 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | 齐晟 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | 再融资政策影响有限，节后行情可期：可 2026-02-24 | | ...

Group 1 - The core indices, including the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI Dividend Value Index, experienced slight declines of 0.01% and 0.1% respectively at midday [1] - The E Fund's high dividend low volatility ETF (159545) saw a net subscription exceeding 50 million units, indicating strong investor interest [1] - E Fund is currently the only fund company offering all dividend ETFs at a low management fee rate of 0.15% per year, which supports investors in low-cost allocation to high-dividend assets [1][4] Group 2 - The CSI Dividend Index consists of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and stable performance, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for over 50% of the index [3] - The CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index includes 50 stocks characterized by good liquidity, continuous dividends, and low volatility, with banking, construction, and pharmaceutical sectors making up nearly 65% of the index [3] - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index tracks 50 stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect that have good liquidity and moderate dividend payout ratios, with financial and industrial sectors representing a significant portion [3] Group 3 - The CSI Dividend Value Index is composed of 50 stocks that exhibit high dividend yields and value characteristics, with banking, construction, and transportation sectors comprising over 60% of the index [4] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the CSI Dividend Index is 8.3 times, while the CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index has a ratio of 8.2 times, indicating relatively stable valuations [3][4] - The indices have been tracking since 2013 and 2014 respectively, with their valuation percentiles indicating historical performance trends [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate, and the coupon strategy may remain a relatively prudent choice. With low credit spreads and the need to control duration risk, investment strategies can focus on the refined exploration of variety spreads, increasing the allocation of low - credit - risk and high - absolute - return varieties [1][2] - Secondary perpetual bonds still have investment value, but their volatility may increase. It is recommended that trading desks control their positions according to their liability - side conditions and try reverse operations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds: Explore Variety Spreads, Pay Attention to Volatility Risks of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Low Credit Spreads, Focus on Variety Spread Exploration - In January, the long - end interest rate showed a trend of "rapid rise → rapid fall → slow fall", credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - and low - rated bonds outperformed high - rated ones, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [10][11] - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate. For accounts with unstable liability sides, it is not recommended to chase long - term credit. Focusing on medium - and short - term varieties may be relatively advantageous. After the spread compression in January, credit spreads are generally at a low level [14][15] - Investment strategies can focus on three aspects: exploring the spreads of perpetual varieties, seizing the allocation opportunities of brokerage bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, and grasping the "oversold" repair opportunities of science and technology innovation bond component bonds [18] 3.1.2 Secondary Perpetual Bonds Still Have Allocation Value, but Volatility May Increase - In January 2026, bank secondary perpetual bonds had a catch - up rally, with yields declining across the board and credit spreads narrowing, generally outperforming ordinary credit bonds. This rally was mainly driven by funds, while insurance's net buying volume gradually decreased [32][33] - 3 - 5 - year large - bank secondary perpetual bonds still have certain allocation value for accounts with stable liability sides. However, with the rapid entry of trading - desk funds such as funds and the reduction of insurance's buying volume, the volatility of secondary perpetual bonds may increase [39] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Medium - and Long - Term Transaction Activity Rose - In January, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance proportion of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate decreased across the board [42] - The yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term and low - grade varieties performing better. The trading sentiment of urban investment bonds improved, and the medium - and long - term transaction activity increased [48][54] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Short - End Issuance Proportion Increased, Medium - and Long - Term Secondary Performance was Superior - In January, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The short - term issuance proportion of industrial bonds continued to rise, and the issuance interest rate generally declined [57] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties showing obvious repair. Most industries' public offering bond yields declined, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [59][62] 3.4 Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds: Transaction Sentiment Warmed Up, Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Significantly Repaired - In January 2026, there were no new bank secondary perpetual bond issuances, and the net financing was - 415 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.1 billion yuan [65] - The yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties significantly repaired. The trading sentiment of bank secondary perpetual bonds warmed up, and the transaction of city commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds spread to medium - and low - grade bonds [71][74]

Core Viewpoint - Recent stock price fluctuations of certain risk warning board stocks have been driven by expectations of restructuring and shell protection, leading to significant trading risks as these movements are detached from fundamental performance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Risks - Stocks such as *ST Yazhen, *ST Zhengping, and *ST Mubang have seen a high number of trading halts in 2025, with respective limits of 65, 45, and 40 times, due to restructuring and control transfer announcements [2] - *ST Zhengping has experienced a 36.79% increase over the last 10 trading days, while other stocks like *ST Yanshi and *ST Yuanshang have also surged, despite a lack of fundamental improvement [2] - The rapid price increases of these stocks are viewed as high-risk speculative behavior, with potential for significant losses for investors who blindly chase these trends [3] Group 2: Earnings Forecast and Delisting Risks - The upcoming earnings forecast season is expected to clarify the delisting risks associated with these stocks, as many have shown weak fundamentals despite recent price surges [4] - Stocks like *ST Yanshi and *ST Xiongmao have exhibited extreme volatility, with multiple trading halts, while their financial disclosures indicate ongoing risks of delisting due to poor performance [4] - Investors are cautioned against overly optimistic expectations regarding "removal of delisting warnings," as the reality of financial disclosures may lead to significant price corrections [4] Group 3: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies have taken notice of the speculative trading behavior and have implemented measures to enhance information disclosure and curb irrational trading [5] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued warnings and penalties to companies for misleading disclosures related to speculative concepts, emphasizing the importance of accurate information for investor protection [5] - Investors are advised to be cautious of stocks driven solely by speculative trends, as these carry substantial trading risks and the potential for sharp price declines following earnings announcements [5]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨0.09%，A股成交量988.44亿股，成交金额17815.48 亿元，比上一个交易日减少3.86%。个股方面，3717只个股上涨，其中涨停82只，1567只个股下跌，其 中跌停5只。从申万行业来看，国防军工、综合、传媒等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.62%、1.86%、 1.80%；非银金融、银行、食品饮料等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.84%、0.95%、0.72%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 3.62 | 1615.58 | 12.84 | 航天南湖 | 14.51 | | 综合 | 1.86 | 39.83 | 17.13 | 东阳光 | 3.69 | | 传媒 | 1.80 | 570.33 | 10.45 | 引力传媒 | 9.99 | | 建筑装饰 | 1.49 | 270.10 | -1.99 | 志特新材 | 19.98 | | 计算机 | 1.29 | 1500.53 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42 points, above the annual line, with a gain of 1.38% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 30,483.30 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 204 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Guanhao Biological (300238) with a deviation rate of 13.10% - Beilu Pharmaceutical (300016) with a deviation rate of 12.97% - Yinkang Life (300143) with a deviation rate of 12.90% [1] Stocks with Significant Deviation Rates - Stocks with high deviation rates include: - Guanhao Biological: 20.00% increase, latest price at 16.62 yuan - Beilu Pharmaceutical: 13.22% increase, latest price at 8.99 yuan - Yinkang Life: 15.18% increase, latest price at 11.38 yuan [1] Additional Stocks with Positive Performance - Other stocks showing positive performance include: - Gangtong Medical (301515) with a 14.16% increase and a deviation rate of 12.82% - Zhite New Materials (300986) with a 20.04% increase and a deviation rate of 10.50% [1] Stocks with Lower Deviation Rates - Stocks that have just crossed the annual line with lower deviation rates include: - Longqi Technology (603341) with a 10.01% increase and a deviation rate of 9.02% - Taihe New Materials (002254) with a 9.98% increase and a deviation rate of 8.61% [1]

Group 1 - The company Chizhou Hecheng Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 300,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Cheng Fang [1] - The business scope includes sales of household appliances, kitchenware, and daily necessities, as well as various technical services and consulting [1] Group 2 - The company is involved in the wholesale and retail of kitchenware and daily necessities, and also offers technical development and consulting services [1] - Additional activities include sales of machinery, electrical equipment, and various consumer products, as well as advertising and design services [1] - The company is permitted to engage in residential interior decoration and construction engineering, subject to relevant approvals [1]

Company Overview - Jinan Jingchang Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd. has been recently established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Zhang Xiaoxia [1] Business Scope - The company operates in various sectors including the manufacturing of daily glass products, sales of rubber products, and sales of construction decoration materials [1] - Additional activities include sales of synthetic materials, coatings (excluding hazardous chemicals), sealing materials, thermal and sound insulation materials, and thermal insulation materials [1] - The company is also involved in the wholesale of hardware products, sales of electrical wires and cables, mechanical equipment, fire-fighting equipment, daily necessities, agricultural products, and pre-packaged food [1] - Other services include internet sales (excluding items requiring permits), anti-corrosion materials sales, landscaping engineering construction, sports venue facilities engineering construction, and traffic facility maintenance [1] - The company provides technical services, development, consulting, exchange, transfer, and promotion, as well as labor services (excluding labor dispatch) [1] Licensing and Regulatory Compliance - The company is authorized to engage in construction engineering, specialized construction operations, residential interior decoration, and construction labor subcontracting, subject to approval from relevant authorities [1] - Specific business activities are contingent upon the approval documents or permits from the relevant departments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in the number of shareholders for certain companies indicates a trend of increasing concentration of shares, with 31 companies experiencing a decrease for more than three consecutive periods, and some seeing declines for up to nine periods [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Trends - A total of 185 companies reported their latest shareholder numbers as of November 30, with 31 companies showing a continuous decline in shareholder numbers for over three periods [1]. - Companies with the longest continuous decline include Zhukebo Design, which has seen a decrease for nine periods, with a total decline of 21.92%, and Huangshanghuang, which has declined for eight periods with a total drop of 18.44% [1][2]. - Other companies with significant declines in shareholder numbers include Yuandong Transmission, Dongsoft Zhaibo, and Jie Jie Microelectronics [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - Among the companies with declining shareholder numbers, 10 have seen their stock prices rise, while 21 have experienced declines, with notable increases for Dadi Ocean (16.40%), George White (8.24%), and Pioneer Electronics (6.92%) [2]. - 32.26% of the companies that experienced a decline in shareholder numbers outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with Dadi Ocean, Pioneer Electronics, and George White showing relative returns of 17.43%, 7.95%, and 6.95%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Industry and Institutional Activity - The industries with the highest concentration of companies experiencing declining shareholder numbers include machinery equipment, pharmaceuticals, and construction decoration, with 7, 3, and 3 companies respectively [2]. - In terms of institutional interest, four companies with declining shareholder numbers were investigated by institutions in the past month, with frequent investigations for Boyuan Shares, which was researched twice [2].

Core Insights - The defense and military industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 5.466 billion yuan, with a price change of 4.31% and a turnover rate of 5.03% [1][2] - The electronics industry experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -6.708 billion yuan, with a price change of 0.64% and a turnover rate of 2.64% [1][2] Industry Summary - **Defense and Military**: - Net inflow: 5.466 billion yuan - Price change: 4.31% - Turnover rate: 5.03% - Volume change: +22.66% [1] - **Media**: - Net inflow: 2.542 billion yuan - Price change: 3.49% - Turnover rate: 5.61% - Volume change: +22.36% [1] - **Construction Decoration**: - Net inflow: 0.627 billion yuan - Price change: 1.36% - Turnover rate: 1.30% - Volume change: -23.46% [1] - **Retail**: - Net inflow: 0.484 billion yuan - Price change: 1.08% - Turnover rate: 2.13% - Volume change: -22.40% [1] - **Social Services**: - Net inflow: 0.325 billion yuan - Price change: 2.22% - Turnover rate: 3.23% - Volume change: -1.53% [1] - **Electronics**: - Net outflow: -6.708 billion yuan - Price change: 0.64% - Turnover rate: 2.64% - Volume change: -16.97% [1][2] - **Banking**: - Net outflow: -0.398 billion yuan - Price change: -0.79% - Turnover rate: 0.36% - Volume change: -16.46% [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Net outflow: -0.711 billion yuan - Price change: 1.25% - Turnover rate: 1.85% - Volume change: -26.72% [2] - **Food and Beverage**: - Net outflow: -1.042 billion yuan - Price change: -0.56% - Turnover rate: 1.21% - Volume change: -23.20% [2] - **Non-Banking Financials**: - Net outflow: -1.272 billion yuan - Price change: -0.05% - Turnover rate: 0.73% - Volume change: -36.56% [2] - **Electric Equipment**: - Net outflow: -2.087 billion yuan - Price change: 0.49% - Turnover rate: 3.04% - Volume change: -28.56% [2]