需求端：资本开支延续高增态势。1)海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达 996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2)国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放 缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业 绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降24.05%、环比 降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 爱建证券近日发布数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态 势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支 均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三 季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降 24.05%、环比降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 数据中心已成为电力设备行业核心增量应 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The data center industry has become a core growth area for the power equipment sector, driving demand and technological advancements. However, the capital expenditure characteristics of the data center industry, including large scale and long return periods, necessitate a multi-dimensional approach to accurately gauge demand for power distribution equipment [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating AI industry indicators to support investment decisions in the data center power distribution equipment sector, focusing on demand, supply chain, and AI application metrics [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Side: Sustained High Growth in Capital Expenditure - In Q3 2025, overseas cloud companies' capital expenditure reached $99.617 billion, a year-on-year increase of 80.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.54% [7]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was CNY 31.5 billion, up 80.10% year-on-year but down 18.55% quarter-on-quarter. Tencent's capital expenditure was CNY 13 billion, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter [12][13]. 2. Supply Chain: Revenue Growth for Key Players - NVIDIA's total revenue in Q3 2025 was $57.006 billion, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak and a year-on-year increase of 66.44% [19]. - TSMC's revenue in December 2025 was NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [24]. - The DRAM spot price surged from $17.25 on October 27, 2025, to $59.75 on January 9, 2026, reflecting a growth of over 246% [27]. 3. Application Side: Steady Growth in AI Models and Usage - The report notes a decrease in API call volume, with a total of 5.39 trillion tokens called from January 5 to January 12, 2026, down 16.17% from the previous period [33]. - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index dropped by over 50% in Q3 2025 [45].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3]. Core Insights - The data center industry has become a core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration in power equipment [6]. - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate multi-dimensional indicators from the AI industry to accurately assess the demand for power distribution equipment, given the capital expenditure characteristics of the data center industry [3][6]. - Key indicators are constructed from three aspects: demand side (capital expenditure trends of leading cloud vendors), supply chain (GPU supply capabilities), and AI application development [3][6]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditure from overseas cloud vendors reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.54% [8]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure was 31.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 80.10% year-on-year but down 18.55% quarter-on-quarter [13]. - Tencent's capital expenditure was 13 billion yuan, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter [13]. Supply Chain - Nvidia's revenue in Q3 2025 reached 362.571 billion yuan, a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.63% and a year-on-year growth of 62.49% [18]. - TSMC's revenue in November 2025 was 343.614 billion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [24]. - The CPU price index in October 2025 was 98.20, showing a slight recovery from 96.15 in September [27]. Application Side - The number of AI models is steadily increasing, with a notable growth in application deployments [29]. - The token usage on OpenRouter from December 16 to December 22 was 5.70T, reflecting a 2.56% decrease [35]. - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index dropped by over 50% in Q3 2025 [46].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric power equipment industry as "stronger than the market" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for electric power equipment is driven by the growth of data centers, which are becoming the core incremental application scenario for the industry. The report emphasizes the need to incorporate AI industry indicators to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment [3][6]. - Capital expenditures from major cloud providers are a direct indicator of demand potential for power distribution equipment, with significant growth observed in overseas capital expenditures [9][12]. - The supply chain remains robust, with companies like NVIDIA and TSMC showing strong revenue growth, indicating a healthy supply of GPUs essential for data center operations [18][24]. - The application layer is witnessing an increase in AI model deployments, which directly impacts capital expenditure cycles and long-term demand for power distribution equipment [29][30]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The report highlights that overseas cloud providers' capital expenditures reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.54% [9]. - Domestic capital expenditures from Alibaba and Tencent showed a slowdown, with Alibaba's capital expenditure at 315.01 million yuan, up 80.10% year-on-year but down 18.55% quarter-on-quarter [12][15]. Supply Chain - NVIDIA's data center product revenue reached 362.571 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [18]. - TSMC's revenue in November 2025 was 343.614 billion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [24]. Application Layer - The report notes a steady increase in AI model updates and application deployments, which are crucial for determining the strength and sustainability of capital expenditure cycles [29]. - The price of tokens for AI models has decreased by over 50% following the release of new models, indicating a competitive market [46]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Sunshine Power (300274.SZ) and suggests paying attention to Keda Data (002335.SZ), Kstar (002518.SZ), and Kelon Electronics (002121.SZ) as beneficiaries of the growing demand for power distribution equipment driven by data centers [3].