今日早参 2025 年 5 月 22 日 申建国 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 邮箱：shenjianguo@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业研究组长 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：人民币或将有升值动力 4 月 2 日后，美国"对等"关税经历数轮调整，但实际结果是美国仍将对全 球加征 13-17 个百分点的进口关税。美国对中国关税更是经历了"过山车"， 两国于 5 月 12 日达成协议，将特朗普上任来对中国加征关税的水平从最高点 的 145%左右降低至 30%（参见《美中关税降级的缘起、影响和后续》， 2025/5/13）。由此，美元指数小幅反弹，而人民币兑美元汇率上升 0.5%左 右。我们认为，这一升值幅度并未完全反映今年来中国相对美国和其他经济 体基本面的相对变化。而在去美元化的大幕初启的背景下，全球、尤其是亚 洲资产大幅超配美元、低配本币这一实质意义上的"套利交易"势必经历结 构性"再平衡"，这一过程中，人民币贬值预期或将渐渐消弭，甚至出现升 值动力可能是题中之义（参见《新台币大幅升值的启示》，2025/5/7）。 风险 ...

证券研究报告 可选消费 淡季不淡，看好 618 需求弹性 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 21 日│中国内地 动态点评 4 月扫/洗地机线上零售额同比持续高增，看好 618 需求弹性 5 月 11 日，石头官宣 P20 自清洁扫拖机器人将于 5 月 13 日上市，支持机 械臂自适应调节、98.8%沿边覆盖率。石头科技京东自营旗舰店海报显示， 享受国补和 618 补贴后 P20 到手价 2142 元起，P20 ULTRA 到手价 3060 元起，P20 填补了石头在 2000-2500 元价位段的产品空白，与 P20 ULTRA 高低搭配，满足不同市场的消费群体。我们认为，随着扫地机价格的下探， 新一波需求有望在今年 618 期间集中释放。 投资建议 根据奥维云网数据，4 月扫地机线上销售量为 30.10 万台，同比+74.49%；销 售额为 10.06 亿元，同比+80.59%。洗地机线上销售量为 33.53 万台，同比 +82.34%；销售额为 6.85 亿元，同比+82.45%。以旧换新补贴叠加春季新品 营销，4 月扫地机、洗地机线上零售额延续前期的高增长态势。5 月 13 日京东、 天猫 618 活动正 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported profits that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 16.542 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 806 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, totaling 259 million yuan, which accounts for 32.12% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - The company has outlined a shareholder return plan for the next three years (2025-2027), committing to distribute no less than 30% of the annual distributable profits in cash [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 19.037 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.8% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.28 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 46.8% for 2025 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.1% for 2025 [5] Business Performance - The company successfully launched new products in the domestic market and achieved significant growth in the European market, with overseas revenue reaching 6.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [6] - The company’s brands achieved a revenue of 8.082 billion yuan and 8.061 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.22% and 10.87% [6] - The company’s sales volume for new products in Q4 2024 saw a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 32.7% for its two main brands [6] Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The R&D and financial expense ratios have also narrowed in Q1 2025 [6] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.313 billion yuan and 1.563 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 63% and 19% [6] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23 for 2025, 20 for 2026, and 17 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [5][6]