可再生燃料
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新股消息 | 传可再生燃料生产商怡斯莱考虑香港IPO上市 计划募资约10亿美元
智通财经网· 2026-01-09 05:57
怡斯莱的核心业务是将生物质废料转化为生物燃料、生物化学品和生物材料,主打氢化植物油(HVO)、 可持续航空燃料(SAF)和纤维素乙醇的商业化生产。作为亚洲领先的生物质精炼平台,怡斯莱正通过技 术创新和资本助力,成为生物燃料领域的关键玩家。 智通财经APP获悉,据报道,香港中华煤气(00003)孵化的绿色独角兽、环保生物燃料公司怡斯莱 (EcoCeres),传已聘请德银、汇丰、摩根士丹利和瑞银,研究可能的香港IPO,计划募资约10亿美元, 最早将于今年进行。知情人士称,计划仍未确定,规模和时间等细节可能会有变化。怡斯莱、贝恩和上 述银行的代表拒绝置评。 据悉,怡斯莱最初曾考虑赴伦敦交易所上市,当时预期募资5亿至10亿美元,估值约50亿美元;至2025 年底,公司策略转向,拟先在香港进行首次公开募股,随后再于其他市场二次上市。 ...
霍尼韦尔推出新型生物质裂解油提质工艺
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2026-01-09 04:25
记者了解到,十多年来,霍尼韦尔持续创新,推出多项使用不同原料制备可再生替代燃料的工艺技术。 新型Biocrude Upgrading技术进一步丰富了霍尼韦尔可再生燃料技术组合,包括Ecofining工艺技术、乙 醇制可持续航空燃料(ETJ)技术、费托合成(FT)Unicrackin技术,以及可使用绿氢和二氧化碳制备电子燃 料(e-fuels)的UOP eFining技术。 据悉,对于船舶运营商而言,这些即用型或直接替代型燃料为传统重质燃料油提供了高性价比且低碳的 替代方案。与当前市场上的其他生物燃料相比,这种可再生船用燃料具有更高的能量密度,可在无需高 成本改造发动机的情况下延长航程。 "霍尼韦尔始终以客户最紧迫的需求作为创新的源动力。"霍尼韦尔能源与可持续技术集团总裁韦思成 (Ken West)表示,"航运业亟需方便获取且具有成本效益的可再生燃料。我们的Biocrude Upgrading工艺 技术支持模块化交付,从安装到精炼和使用,均可帮助客户节约成本,降低风险并加快项目进度。" 植物和农业废弃物可在原料收集点就地转化为低碳生物原油,从而降低运输成本。霍尼韦尔的新工艺技 术使生物原油能够在大型炼化设施中精 ...
《农产品》日报-20251204
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may face a risk of weakening and falling after a short - term rebound, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak view. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures were boosted by Malaysian palm oil in the early session. - For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry remains resilient, but the international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the short - term market may be dragged down, but the import cost of soybeans will support the market and limit the decline of the basis. - The supply of domestic soybean meal remains loose overall, but the supply in some regions is tightening, and the basis has short - term support. The unilateral market is unlikely to show an upward trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. Pig Industry - The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, but the demand lacks highlights. The price of pigs is expected to maintain a volatile and weak structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the unilateral price is expected to continue to bottom out [3]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, but the supply in some regions is tightening, providing short - term support for the basis. It is difficult to see an upward trend in the unilateral market. The market should continue to focus on domestic purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend with light short - term trading [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the futures price is strong and hits a new high due to tight supply and strong spot prices. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes. If they recover, it will limit the price increase space [8]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower, and the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [12]. Cotton Industry - In the short term, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range. ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower, supported by the weakening US dollar. In the domestic market, the purchase price of seed cotton is falling, and Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the support below is still strong [13]. Egg Industry - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, but overall pressure still exists. The market trading is light, and the terminal consumption is weak. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8620 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 is 8286 yuan/ton, and the basis is 334 yuan/ton. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8720 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 is 8730 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton. The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January is 9195.1 yuan/ton, and the盘面 import profit is - 465 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of Ol601 is 9711 yuan/ton, and the basis is 330 yuan/ton [1]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs is 11925 yuan/ton, the price of the January contract is 11490 yuan/ton, and the price of the May contract is 11925 yuan/ton. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan range from 11100 - 12410 yuan/ton. The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.25% to 210037, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of piglets decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg [3]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 is 3046 yuan/ton, and the basis is 14 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian soybeans in February is 53 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 is 2408 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 8 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Canadian rapeseed in January is 670 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of the January contract is 2259 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis is 41 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit is 59 yuan/ton, and the import profit is 352 yuan/ton. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the January contract is 2562 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, and the basis is 28 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch is 1 yuan/ton [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 5366 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 5297 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 14.92 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5420 yuan/ton and 5400 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 13780 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 13750 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 64.45 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 14862 yuan/ton, and the CC Index is 15005 yuan/ton. The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 3138 yuan/500KG, and the price of the February contract is 3052 yuan/500KG. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing area is 3.05 yuan/jin, the egg - to - feed ratio is 2.32, and the breeding profit is - 27.35 yuan/feather. The theoretical in - laying hen inventory in December is expected to decline [15].
《农产品》日报-20251112
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 06:36
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report's inventory growth risk, the futures price is in a volatile rebound and is expected to strengthen to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in Malaysia and 8900 yuan in the domestic Dalian market [1]. - Soybean oil: The EPA's approval of small refinery exemptions increases the uncertainty of renewable fuels, pressuring CBOT soybean oil. Domestic spot basis quotes are expected to fluctuate narrowly [1]. Sugar - International: The end of the US government shutdown warms the macro - market, but the supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price is in a weak and volatile trend. - Domestic: Constrained by import quotas, the price follows the decline less significantly. The new sugar season in Guangxi is expected to start late, and the price is expected to fluctuate [3][4]. Corn - The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply pressure still exists in November, but there is cost and storage policy support. The short - term price is affected by demand from different industries [5]. Cotton - US cotton: The listing inspection is progressing steadily, but due to global high yields, it maintains a low - level volatile trend. - Domestic cotton: There is hedging pressure, but also cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. Meal - The market is waiting for the USDA report. The US soybean support is strengthening, but the 13% tariff on US soybeans in China affects exports. Domestic soybean inventory is high, and soybean meal is expected to be in a wide - range shock [11]. Pork - The spot price is weak, and the overall supply is normal. The slowdown of the November planned slaughter may boost the price. The price is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can be held, with a cautiously bullish view on the single - side [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is stable. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom. Short - sell the December contract and pay attention to the 3400 resistance of the January contract [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18% to 8550 yuan/ton, and the futures price Y2601 increased by 0.12% to 8238 yuan/ton. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.58% to 8610 yuan/ton, and the futures price P2601 increased by 0.92% to 8770 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 2.03% to 10030 yuan/ton, and the futures price OI601 increased by 1.96% to 9775 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - Soybean oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 7.83% to 212. - Palm oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 increased by 17.65% to - 84. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 increased by 3.15% to 426 [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: - The price of SR2601 increased by 0.09% to 5480 yuan/ton, and SR2605 increased by 0.11% to 5411 yuan/ton. - The ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.14% to 14.28 cents/lb [3]. - **Spot Market**: - The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Kunming at 5650 yuan/ton. - The Nanning basis decreased by 1.60% to 369 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 2.45% to 239 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. - Guangxi's sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and monthly sales decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons [3]. Corn - **Price Changes**: - The price of C2601 increased by 0.60% to 2177 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.46% to 2180 yuan/ton. - The Shekou bulk grain price increased by 1.32% to 2300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit and Spread**: - The north - south trade profit increased by 222.22% to 29 yuan/ton, and the import profit increased by 13.30% to 264 yuan/ton. - The corn 1 - 5 spread increased by 10.47% to - 77 [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: - The price of CF2605 decreased by 0.15% to 13560 yuan/ton, and CF2601 decreased by 0.15% to 13560 yuan/ton. - The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.64% to 63.93 cents/lb [8]. - **Spot Market**: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.02% to 14668 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14842 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industry Situation**: - Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% to 293.06 million tons, and industrial inventory increased by 9.7% to 88.82 million tons. - The import volume increased by 42.9% to 10 million tons [8]. Meal - **Price Changes**: - The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3060 yuan/ton, and the futures price M2601 decreased by 0.29% to 3054 yuan/ton. - The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2530 yuan/ton, and the futures price RM2601 decreased by 1.07% to 2500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spread Changes**: - The soybean meal inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 6.84% to 218, and the rapeseed meal inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 20.20% to 79 [11]. Pork - **Futures Market**: - The price of LH2605 decreased by 0.04% to 12065 yuan/ton, and LH2601 decreased by 1.67% to 11755 yuan/ton. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 169.57% to - 310 [14]. - **Spot Market**: - The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 11850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 12080 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.45% to 162448, and the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.70 yuan/kg [14]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: - The price of the December egg contract decreased by 0.76% to 3152 yuan/500KG, and the January contract decreased by 0.30% to 3373 yuan/500KG [18]. - **Spot Market**: - The egg - producing area price decreased by 1.32% to 3.01 yuan/jin, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 1.68% to 2.34 [18]. - **Industry Situation**: - The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to be stable in November, and the supply pressure remains [18].
可持续航空燃料(SAF)行业点评:欧盟推出33亿欧元投资计划,稳定可持续燃料行业投资者信心
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-10 06:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][29]. Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has launched a €3.3 billion investment plan to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping sectors, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [3][10]. - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending target by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects SAF demand to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [4][6]. - The EU's ambitious decarbonization goals necessitate an estimated €100 billion investment by 2035 to meet future SAF demand, with the recent investment plan signaling a commitment to stabilize investor confidence [4][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Plan and Policy Framework - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP) outlines a roadmap for promoting the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, aiming for a 90% reduction in transport-related carbon emissions by 2050 [10][14]. - The plan includes specific investment allocations, such as €2 billion for developing sustainable alternative fuels and €1.53 billion for synthetic aviation fuels [14][16]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - SAF prices have surged due to high production costs compared to traditional jet fuel, with the price of high-end SAF in China reaching $2,650 per ton as of November 10, 2023, a 47.22% increase from the beginning of the year [4][18]. - The scarcity of SAF raw materials, such as used cooking oil (UCO), is expected to sustain high market demand and pricing [4][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Jiaao Environmental and Excellent New Energy, which are positioned as leaders in the SAF market with significant production capacities [5][23]. - Jiaao Environmental has a SAF production capacity of 500,000 tons and has received export licenses, while Excellent New Energy is expanding its biodiesel and SAF production capabilities [5][23].
霍尼韦尔开发新型生物原油处理技术
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-11-05 06:51
Core Viewpoint - Honeywell has developed a new system that converts biomass into ready-to-use renewable fuels, offering a more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional marine fuels, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and gasoline [1] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The innovative bio-crude upgrading technology utilizes agricultural and forestry by-products to transform waste into a cheap and abundant biomass source [1] - The renewable marine fuel produced has a higher energy density compared to existing biofuels, allowing for extended vessel range without the need for expensive engine modifications [1] - Honeywell's modular factory approach reduces risks and simplifies deployment of the technology [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Strategy - The maritime industry urgently requires immediately available and cost-effective renewable fuels, which Honeywell aims to address with its modular bio-crude upgrading technology [1] - The technology is designed to save costs across all stages from installation to refining [1]
霍尼韦尔开发新型生物原油处理技术
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-11-05 02:36
Core Viewpoint - Honeywell has developed a new system that converts biomass into ready-to-use renewable fuels, offering a more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional marine fuels, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and gasoline [1] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The innovative bio-crude upgrading technology utilizes agricultural and forestry by-products to transform waste into a cheap and abundant biomass source [1] - The renewable marine fuel produced has a higher energy density compared to existing biofuels, allowing for extended vessel range without the need for expensive engine modifications [1] - The key selling point of this product is its compatibility with existing engine infrastructure, enabling the use of biofuels without requiring changes [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Cost Efficiency - Honeywell's modular bio-crude upgrading technology is designed to save costs across all stages from installation to refining [1] - The maritime industry urgently needs immediately available and cost-effective renewable fuels, which Honeywell aims to address through its innovative solutions [1]
国富期货:44上海
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 03:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the latest trends in the global agricultural and energy markets, including price fluctuations, supply - demand dynamics, and weather impacts. It also covers macro - economic news and capital flows in the futures market, which can help investors understand the overall market situation and make investment decisions [1][2][3][9][10][11][15][22][24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - Brent 12 (ICE) closed at $60.94, down 0.65% from the previous day and up 0.48% overnight. WTI 12 (NYMEX) closed at $56.93, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 0.64% overnight. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1032.75, up 1.15% from the previous day and up 0.46% overnight [1]. - The US Dollar Index was at 98.61, up 0.08%. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.0973, up 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - For DCE Palm Oil 2601, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9480, 9320, and 9310 respectively, with basis values of 90, - 70, and - 80, and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. - For DCE Soybean Oil 2601, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8500, 8540, 8620, and 8480 respectively, with basis values of 166, 206, 286, and 146, and basis changes of - 48, 2, - 8, and - 8 respectively [3]. - For DCE Soybean Meal 2601, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2920, 2870, 2890, and 2960 respectively, with basis values of 14, - 36, - 16, and 54, and basis changes of - 6, - 36, - 16, and - 36 respectively [3]. 3.3 Production Area Weather - In the US soybean - producing states from October 25 - 29, temperatures and precipitation are generally above normal levels. The Midwest will see a front in the early part of the week, but precipitation will be limited [6][8]. - In Brazil, central areas have continuous showers, which is beneficial for soybean planting. Southern states will be mostly dry before Friday [8]. 3.4 Industry News - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased 3.4% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia may regulate palm oil exports to ensure domestic biodiesel supply, planning to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 [9]. - Analysts expect the US soybean harvest rate to be 73% and the corn harvest rate to be 59% as of last Sunday [9]. - As of the week ending October 16, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 1,474,354 tons, higher than expected [10]. - As of the week ending October 18, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 21.7% [10]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 24%, and the sowing area of the first - season corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [11]. - Brazil exported 3,647,485.15 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average export volume 31% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In September 2025, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed and soybean crushing volumes decreased compared to August [11]. - Canada's estimated ending inventory of rapeseed for the 2025/26 season remains at 2.5 million tons [12]. 3.5 Domestic Supply and Demand - On October 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,200 tons, up 1% from the previous day [15]. - On October 20, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 101,100 tons, with the oil mill operating rate at 66.59%, up 4.06% from the previous day [15]. - As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, up 5.13% from the previous week; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.224 million tons, down 3.25% from the previous week [15]. - China's September imports of palm oil decreased year - on - year, while soybean, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil imports showed different trends [16][17][18]. - The national pig - to - grain ratio was 5.22 as of October 15, down 4.40% from October 8 [19]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 20 compared to last Friday [20]. 3.6 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 98.6% [22]. - Argentina signed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the US Treasury [22]. - The eurozone's seasonally - adjusted current account in August was 11.903 billion euros, down from the previous value [22]. - **Domestic News** - On October 20, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0973, up 24 points (CNY depreciation) [24]. - On October 20, the central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [24]. - China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% [24]. - The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [24]. - As of October 9, 2025, the total capital in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, up 24% from the end of 2024 [24]. 3.7 Capital Flows On October 20, 2025, the futures market saw a net capital outflow of 16.146 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 7.775 billion yuan from the commodity futures market, 7.754 billion yuan from the stock index futures market, and 668 million yuan from the bond futures market [27].
《农产品》日报-20251021
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - In Malaysia, with export growth and production increase lower than market expectations, there is a chance for the price to rise to 4,650 ringgit. Pay close attention to export data and MPOA production data, and focus on whether the price can effectively stand above 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range consolidation trend. After repeated consolidation, watch if it can break through and stand above 9,500 yuan driven by the rise of Malaysian palm oil [1]. Soybean Oil - Sino - US trade negotiations seem to be back on track after weeks of new tariff threats and export restrictions. The data from the US EPA shows that the renewable fuel blending volume in September exceeded that in August, which is positive for Chicago soybean oil futures. In China, the Dalian soybean oil futures rose following the strength of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, but the increase was limited due to the drag of Sino - Canadian negotiations and limited downstream demand before the Spring Festival stocking. The possibility of a short - term continued rise is low [1]. Sugar - From the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production also increased. Affected by supply expectations, the upward momentum of raw sugar prices is limited. As of October, the market focuses on the production prospects of India and Thailand. The overall production is currently optimistically estimated, and the raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents per pound. The September sales data is neutral to weak, and the inventory has increased year - on - year. The new sugar pre - sale price is much lower than the current market price, and the spot market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3][4]. Cotton - The purchase price of machine - picked cottonseed in Xinjiang is firm. The Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract has cost support at low levels, but there is also increasing hedging pressure above 13,500 - 13,600 yuan. The downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises' cotton inventory is not high, and they have demand for cotton at current prices. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Eggs - The存栏量 of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. The downstream demand has improved, which will drive up the egg price. However, the sufficient supply at the origin may suppress the increase in egg prices. It is expected that the egg price will rise slightly this week and then stabilize, but there is still overall pressure [8][10]. Corn - In the short term, the corn price has stabilized and rebounded slightly due to the decrease in supply. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the upward space of the price is limited. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is cautious, but their inventory is relatively low, and the subsequent purchase intention will increase. Some regions have started purchasing and storage, but the scale is small [13]. Meal - related Products - The US soybean has improved slightly, but lacks substantial positive factors. Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is still at a high level, and the spot price is expected to be weak this year. However, the downward space is limited. If China continues not to purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support around 2,900 yuan, and there may be opportunities for 1 - 5 positive spreads [18]. Pigs - In the short term, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the pig price has stabilized and rebounded due to the entry of second - fattening in North and Northeast China. In the long term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. Policy - driven capacity reduction needs time to take effect, and it is expected that the spot price will still face pressure until the first half of next year. The disk operation should focus on short - selling on rallies, and hold the LH3 - 7 reverse spread [21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 20, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,610 yuan, up 0.23% from October 17; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,298 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis of Y2601 was 312 yuan, down 6.59% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9,300 yuan, up 0.54%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,318 yuan, up 0.11%; the basis of P2601 was - 18 yuan, up 68.97%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 9,708.1 yuan, up 0.18%, and the import profit was - 390 yuan, down 2.06%. The number of warehouse receipts was 600, up 20% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,120 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,918 yuan, up 0.58%; the basis of OI601 was 202 yuan, down 22.01% [1]. Sugar - On October 20, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 0.30%; the futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,386 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; the 1 - 5 spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 11.43%. The main contract's open interest was 426,415, down 3.41% [3]. Cotton - The futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,390 yuan/ton, up 1.05%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,335 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the 5 - 1 spread was 55 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The main contract's open interest was 586,467, up 1.11% [5]. Eggs - The price of the egg 11 - contract was 2,770 yuan/500KG, down 1.25%; the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3,166 yuan/500KG, down 0.41%. The basis was 174 yuan/500KG, down 24.47% [8]. Corn - The futures price of corn 2601 was 2,138 yuan/ton, up 0.99%; the basis was 12 yuan/ton, down 7.69%; the 1 - 3 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 7.14%. The open interest was 1,701,632, up 1.43%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,324, up 34.36% [13]. Meal - related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,900 yuan, down 0.68%; the futures price of M2601 was 2,895 yuan, up 0.94%; the basis of M2601 was 5 yuan, down 90.38%. The number of warehouse receipts was 42,761, down 0.3% [18]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,430 yuan, up 0.83%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,350 yuan, up 1.91%; the basis of RM2601 was 80 yuan, down 23.08%. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,702, unchanged [18]. Pigs - The futures price of the live hog 2511 contract was 11,410 yuan/ton, up 3.26%; the futures price of the live hog 2601 contract was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 4.16%. The 11 - 1 spread was - 745 yuan/ton, down 20.16%. The main contract's open interest was 102,555, down 4.13% [21]. Spot Market Data Sugar - The spot price in Nanning was 5,770 yuan, down 0.35%; in Kunming, it was 5,740 yuan, down 0.35%. The basis in Nanning was 381 yuan, down 7.75%; in Kunming, it was 351 yuan, down 8.36%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 4,254 yuan/ton, down 1.53%; (out - of - quota) was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 1.59% [3]. Cotton - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,517 yuan, up 0.05%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,679 yuan, unchanged; the FC Index of M: 1% was 12,851 yuan, unchanged. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract was 987 yuan/ton, down 11.88%; the basis of 3128B - 05 contract was 1,052 yuan/ton, down 10.47% [5]. Eggs - The egg - producing area price was 2.94 yuan/500KG, down 3.01%; the price of laying hens was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.32 yuan/jin, down 3.14% [8]. Corn - The FOB price in Jinzhou Port was 2,150 yuan/ton, up 0.94%; the bulk grain price in Shekou was 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The north - south trade profit was 79 yuan/ton, down 20.20%; the CIF price was 1,982 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; the import profit was 328 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [13]. Meal - related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,900 yuan, down 0.68%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,430 yuan, up 0.83% [18]. Pigs - The spot price in Henan was 11,530 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11,550 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 11,010 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11,590 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 11,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hunan, it was 10,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [21]. Industry Situation Data Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 1,048 million tons, up 9.17% year - on - year. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59% year - on - year; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 26.66 million tons, down 41.20% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - The inventory decreased by 13.1% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 1.9% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 42.9% month - on - month; the bonded area inventory increased by 1.4% month - on - month [5]. Eggs - The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.31, down 7.97%; the breeding profit was - 28.71 yuan/feather, down 69.88% [8]. Corn - The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 446, down 1.11% [13]. Meal - related Products - The盘面 import profit of Canadian rapeseed meal for January shipment was 792 yuan, up 5.74% [18]. Pigs - The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 164,642, down 1.13%; the weekly white - strip price was 19.01 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price was 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.47 yuan, down 0.09%; the weekly slaughter weight was 128.25 kg, down 0.18%; the weekly self - breeding profit was - 245 yuan/head, down 60.83%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 375 yuan/head, down 24.66%; the monthly fertile sow inventory was 4,038 million heads, down 0.10% [21].
棕榈油:产地去库偏慢,关注棕油下方支撑豆油:南美产情偏好,关注中美经贸关系豆粕:美豆偏强,或跟随反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Slow destocking in the origin areas, focus on the support level below [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Favorable production situation in South America, pay attention to China - US economic and trade relations [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Strong US soybeans, may follow the rebound and fluctuate [2][11]. - **Soybean**: Bullish and fluctuating [2][11]. - **Corn**: Fluctuating [2][14]. - **Sugar**: Narrow - range consolidation [2][18]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the rebound momentum [2][23]. - **Eggs**: Weak and fluctuating [2][27]. - **Pigs**: Active entry of second - fattening farmers [2][29]. - **Peanuts**: Focus on the spot market [2][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil** - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,318 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,294 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease; soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,298 yuan/ton with a 0.51% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,324 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. There were also details about trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month; Indonesia may regulate palm oil exports to ensure domestic biodiesel supply; analysts' forecasts for US soybean and corn harvest rates; US soybean export inspection data; renewable fuel blending data in the US; Brazil's soybean planting progress and export data; EU and UK oilseed crushing data; Canada's rapeseed supply and demand data [6][7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. **3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean** - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean's daily - session closing price was 4086 yuan/ton with a 1.29% increase, and night - session closing price was 4085 yuan/ton with a 0.74% increase; DCE soybean meal's daily - session closing price was 2895 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase, and night - session closing price was 2901 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase. There were also details about spot prices, basis, trading volume, and inventory [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high due to optimistic China - US trade sentiment; Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting completion rate was 24% [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of +1 [13]. **3.3 Corn** - **Fundamentals**: Important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc.; futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads of different contracts [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Changes in corn prices in different regions, including northern ports, Guangdong Shekou, Northeast, and North China [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [17]. **3.4 Sugar** - **Fundamentals**: Data on raw sugar prices, mainstream spot prices, futures prices, price spreads, and basis [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production and export data; Conab's adjustment of Brazil's sugar production forecast; China's sugar import data; domestic and international sugar supply and demand forecasts [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [21]. **3.5 Cotton** - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads of different contracts; spot prices of different cotton types [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Domestic cotton spot market trading, price, and acquisition price conditions; domestic cotton textile enterprise operation conditions; ICE cotton futures situation [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [26]. **3.6 Eggs** - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and spot prices in different regions; related feed and livestock prices [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of - 1 [27]. **3.7 Pigs** - **Fundamentals**: Spot prices in different regions; futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads of different contracts [31]. - **Market Information**: Registration of warehouse receipts and addition of delivery warehouses [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [33]. **3.8 Peanuts** - **Fundamentals**: Important spot prices; futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads of different contracts [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut prices and market conditions in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37].