编者按制造业是立国之本、强国之基。2025年5月，习近平总书记在河南考察时指出："制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业 合理比重。"党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，保持制造业合理比重，构建以先 进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。中国经济时报约请知名智库专家，从历史大势、时代大潮、世界大局等维度，探析保持制造业合理比重的机理和规 律。 为何须保持制造业合理比重 核心观点 制造业比重的高低直接影响产业体系的健康运行，比重过低容易导致产业空心化和基础薄弱，而盲目追求过高指标，则可能引发资源错配、结构失衡，抑 制其他部门发展，降低整体经济效率。提出"保持制造业合理比重"旨在通过稳固产业基础、优化产业结构，为经济高质量发展提供可靠保障。 ■张小锋 来以丰 制造业是国家经济命脉所系，是立国之本、强国之基。习近平总书记高度重视制造业在我国经济建设和现代化进程中的战略地位，明确指出"制造业是国 民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业合理比重"。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》（ ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic development over the next five years and set the stage for the second half of 2023's economic policies [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the recent meeting indicates a shift in focus, although the need to stabilize the housing market remains critical [3] - The meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting a decline in comprehensive financing costs, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [2] Stock Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 30% since last year, indicating a positive trend in the stock market, which the meeting aims to consolidate [4][5] - The effectiveness of measures taken by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and other entities in stabilizing the stock market has been acknowledged, but further support from fundamental economic conditions is necessary for continued growth [5] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Management - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, with the government focusing on regulating excessive competition rather than merely raising prices [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity management in key industries, including photovoltaic, cement, and automotive sectors, to ensure sustainable growth [6] Macro Policy Adjustments - The macroeconomic policy has shifted towards increased investment in consumer spending and improving living standards, with a notable rise in government leverage [8] - The government's ability to implement counter-cyclical policies is crucial for boosting confidence and stimulating demand in the face of economic contraction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is focusing on stabilizing growth in key industries, promoting digital transformation, and enhancing the integration of technology and industry to drive economic development. Group 1: Industry Growth Plans - The MIIT is set to release growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, emphasizing structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1] - Recent announcements indicate that growth stabilization plans for machinery, automotive, and power equipment industries will also be issued soon, aimed at enhancing quality supply capabilities and optimizing the industry development environment [5] Group 2: Digital Transformation and AI Integration - Over 100 AI-enabled devices, such as AI smartphones, computers, and glasses, have emerged, contributing to new economic growth points [2] - The digital industry achieved a business revenue growth of 9.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, an increase of 3.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - The MIIT plans to issue digital transformation implementation plans for industries like textiles, light industry, food, and pharmaceuticals, focusing on 82 typical scenarios for intelligent transformation [7] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Future Industries - The MIIT is promoting the collaborative empowerment of industrial internet and artificial intelligence, while accelerating the research and development of 6G technology [4] - The ministry aims to foster high-level digital transformation service providers and encourage enterprises to shift towards a "product + service" model [9] - Future industries such as humanoid robots, the metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces are being prioritized for innovation and development [12] Group 4: Support for SMEs - The MIIT will conduct special actions to address the issue of overdue payments to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), aiming to alleviate their financial burdens [10] - Plans are underway to establish the second phase of the National SME Development Fund to attract more social capital for long-term investments in hard technology [15] Group 5: Quality Development and Standards - The MIIT is committed to implementing high-quality development plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on effective supply and demand coordination [14] - The ministry will accelerate the establishment of a digital transformation standard system to promote high-quality standards for new technologies and products [9]