57位经济学家的预测区间为增长-5.1%至增长2.4%。 美国人口普查局公布，11月份增长5.4%。 不含运输品的新订单12月份增长0.9%，11月份为增长0.4%。 不含国防用品的新订单12月份下降2.5%，11月份为增长6.6%。 扣除飞机，不含国防用品的资本品订单12月份增长0.6%，11月份为增长0.8%。 扣除飞机，不含国防用品的资本品出货12月份增长0.9%，11月份为增长0.2%。 责任编辑：王许宁 57位经济学家的预测区间为增长-5.1%至增长2.4%。 美国人口普查局公布，11月份增长5.4%。 不含运输品的新订单12月份增长0.9%，11月份为增长0.4%。 不含国防用品的新订单12月份下降2.5%，11月份为增长6.6%。 扣除飞机，不含国防用品的资本品订单12月份增长0.6%，11月份为增长0.8%。 扣除飞机，不含国防用品的资本品出货12月份增长0.9%，11月份为增长0.2%。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

2月2日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示： 美国12月PPI同比 3%，预期 2.8%，前值 3% 美国12月核心 PPI同比 3.3%，预期 2.9%，前值 3%。 美国12月PPI环比 0.5%，预期0.2%，前值0.2%。 美国12月核心 PPI环比 0.7%，预期0.2%，前值 0%。 分项来看，服务成本显著上升，其中贸易利润率环比涨幅为2024 年年中以来最高，机械设备批发利润率成为主要拉动因素；商品价格因能源下跌整体持平，但核心商品 价格仍呈加速上涨态势。 该数据对货币政策具有关键影响。PPI多项成分将计入美联储更为关注的核心 个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，可能影响后续利率决策路径。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔已以"经济表 现稳健、劳动力市场趋于平衡"为由，宣布暂停当前的降息进程。 另外，加拿大统计局的数据显示，2025年11月，加拿大经济陷入停滞， 国内生产总值（GDP）为零， 此前10月份GDP下降了0.3% 。 服务业的增长抵消了商品生产（包括制造业）的下滑。 加拿大统计局表 示，制造业整体下降了1.3%，其中耐用品生产下降幅度最大，达1.9%。这包括运输设备、机械、金属 制品以及汽车和零部件的制 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. Labor Department released combined non-farm employment data for October and November, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[5]. - October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 162,000 jobs in the federal government sector[6]. - Private sector employment increased by 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October, with a three-month moving average of 75,000[6]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose from 4.44% in October to 4.56% in November, marking the highest level since September 2021[7]. - The labor force participation rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[7]. - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-19 rose significantly from 13.2% to 16.3%, indicating challenges for young job seekers[8]. Group 3: Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly wages increased by 3.75% year-over-year in October and 3.51% in November, with month-over-month increases of 0.44% and 0.14%, respectively[9]. - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.37% in October and 4.34% in November, reflecting overall labor income trends[12]. - Weekly hours worked averaged 34.2 hours in October and 34.3 hours in November, indicating a slight increase in overtime trends[12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The data suggests a mixed employment landscape, with structural demand in healthcare and social services, while public sector and manufacturing remain weak[7]. - The JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, indicating resilient job demand despite rising unemployment[14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 increased to 62.7% from 42.4% following the employment data release[15].

Group 1 - The U.S. job growth significantly slowed in August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the market expectation of 75,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - The average job growth over the past three months was only 29,000, marking the weakest employment growth since the pandemic began [3] - The private sector added 54,000 jobs in the previous month, while initial jobless claims reached 237,000, the highest since June [3] - The education and healthcare sectors were the largest job creators, adding 46,000 jobs, while durable goods and business services sectors lost 19,000 and 17,000 jobs, respectively [3] Group 3 - Market reactions indicate increased bets on the Federal Reserve starting rapid interest rate cuts, with expectations for a rate cut in September [3][4] - The transition of job growth from the public to the private sector may require lower interest rates, with predictions of a series of rate cuts to follow [4] - Historical trends suggest that while initial market reactions may be positive due to potential dovish Fed policies, significant declines in yields could indicate economic slowdown, which is negative for the stock market [4]

Group 1 - In February, 12 out of 20 industries in Canada experienced a decline, while the manufacturing sector grew by 0.6% [1] - The financial and insurance sectors have seen a continuous increase for three months, with a growth rate of 0.7% in February, partially offsetting the overall economic downturn [1] - The winter storms in central, eastern Canada, and British Columbia have negatively impacted the economy, particularly affecting the transportation and warehousing sector, which declined by 1.1% [4] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the unexpected decline in February is likely due to severe weather rather than tariff uncertainties, with significant impacts on mining, oil and gas, transportation, and real estate sectors [6] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a "bright spot," with a 0.6% growth in February, driven mainly by durable goods manufacturing, particularly machinery, which grew by 5.9% [7] - Deloitte's economic outlook predicts that the Canadian economy will enter a recession in the second quarter of this year, with a projected GDP growth rate of -1.1% for Q2 and -0.9% for Q3 [11][12] Group 3 - The Bank of Canada indicates that the era of low interest rates may be coming to an end, with a forecasted benchmark interest rate of 2.25% by the end of 2025, which is still higher than most of the 2010s [14] - The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 7% this year, with a projected loss of 75,000 jobs in the next two quarters, particularly in export-sensitive sectors like manufacturing, steel, and aluminum [14] - The current trade threats could lead to a permanent reduction of about 3% in Canada's real GDP by 2030 if exceptions in the USMCA are removed, highlighting the urgency to address long-term economic issues [17]