工银亚洲研究《2025从关税的"预期链条"怎么看美国经济景气线索？》报告，聚焦美国"对等关税"政策对经济的影响，通过分析通胀、产业链、经济数据及 政策前景，梳理美国经济景气线索与未来趋势。 报告指出，2025年8月前，美国关税政策处于谈判延期阶段，效应主要集中于产业链上游，对PPI抬升明显（PPI同比从1月3.8%波动至7月3.1%），但对 CPI"直接穿透"有限（CPI同比从1月3.0%缓升至7月2.7%）。此阶段关税影响通过"预期链条"传导，表现为企业库存动机增强，中上游制造商、批发商库存 增速加快，下游零售商库存增速放缓；同时，"进口量增多""耐用品产量增加""零售让利"吸收预期效应，进口量1-3月较2024年均值增17.6%，耐用品前7月 出货量增速提至3.1%，沃尔玛等零售商让利致经营利润下降，暂时掩盖关税对终端价格的冲击。 8月后关税落地，通胀传导显化。8月PPI同比降至2.6%，CPI同比升至2.9%，核心商品对CPI拉动率达0.4%，家具、运输产品价格领涨。预计9月后通胀进一 步"显化"，四季度影响明显，因库存缓冲耗尽，企业逐步转嫁成本，且关税政策向产业领域延伸（如汽车、半导体），或令通胀影响 ...

Group 1 - The latest inflation data in the U.S. indicates a profound structural divergence in price pressures within the economy, presenting unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - In July, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated at an annualized rate of 4.4%, marking the third consecutive month of strong momentum, particularly driven by persistent inflation in the service sector [1][2] - In contrast, durable goods prices experienced a monthly decline with an annualized decrease of 1.3%, reflecting the impact of tariffs and consumer resistance to high prices [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence in inflation dynamics highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation landscape, with service sector inflation, especially in non-housing services, becoming a primary driver of overall price increases [1][2] - The characteristics of the service sector make it more challenging to suppress prices, as many essential services lack transparent price comparison mechanisms and face insufficient market competition [1][2] - Conversely, the durable goods market is experiencing different dynamics, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive due to tightened monetary policy, leading businesses to adopt discounting and promotional strategies to maintain sales [1][2] Group 3 - Despite tariffs being seen as a potential factor for rising goods prices, U.S. companies have accumulated substantial profits over the past few years, providing them with ample capacity to absorb tariff costs, thereby limiting the transmission effect of tariffs on final consumer prices [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as its 2% inflation target is continuously challenged by persistent core service sector inflation, with the core PCE price index's annualized growth rate reaching 3.3% in July, significantly above target levels [2] - Overall PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates have accelerated for three consecutive months, indicating a worsening inflation situation despite a decline in energy prices, which has had limited impact on core inflation [2] Group 4 - The structural divergence in inflation necessitates the Federal Reserve to weigh multiple factors in policy formulation, as excessive focus on declining goods prices may underestimate the stubbornness of service sector inflation, potentially leading to uncontrolled inflation expectations [2] - Conversely, overly tightening measures to curb service sector inflation could unnecessarily impact the goods sector and overall economic growth [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor service sector inflation developments and may maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with the possibility of further rate hikes to ensure inflation returns to target [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite a decline in total durable goods orders in July, core capital goods orders have shown the fastest growth in nearly three years, indicating a strengthening in U.S. business investment [1][2][4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a month-over-month decline of 2.8% in durable goods orders, with a year-over-year increase slowing to 3.5% due to volatility in Boeing orders and the fading effect of preemptive orders caused by previous tariff policies [1][4] - Core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft and military hardware, rebounded by 1.06% after a revised decline of 0.6% in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, which alleviates concerns about an economic slowdown [2][4] Group 2 - The details of core orders reveal underlying strength in the U.S. business sector, with durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment showing a year-over-year growth of 3.8%, the fastest since November 2022 [4] - Non-defense capital goods shipments, which directly contribute to GDP, increased by 0.7% month-over-month, with previous month data also revised upward, providing a positive outlook for the third quarter [4] - Investment in artificial intelligence is emerging as a new growth point, with companies increasing equipment spending to accelerate AI applications, which could enhance productivity and offset higher costs, including import tariffs [6][7] Group 3 - The report indicates growth in orders for electrical equipment, computers, machinery, and metals in July, along with a rebound in automotive orders, reflecting a recovery in investment demand across multiple industries [7] - Despite the growth observed, economists anticipate that business investment will remain weak for the remainder of the year, although investment activity is expected to accelerate by 2026 following tax incentives from recent legislation [7]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was reported at 3.0%, significantly exceeding the mainstream forecast of 2.5%, but this figure is misleading due to a sharp 30.3% drop in imports, which artificially inflated the GDP data [1] - The core indicator of domestic private final purchases has seen a decline in annual growth rate from 2.7% last year to 1.2%, indicating underlying economic weakness despite the seemingly strong GDP figure [1] Consumer Behavior - Actual personal consumption growth increased from 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, but this is still below last year's robust performance, with service consumption remaining weak, only slightly recovering by 1.1% [3] - Despite acceptable income and savings levels, consumer and investor sentiment is cautious due to various uncertainties, leading to a reluctance to increase spending [5] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment growth has significantly slowed, with construction investment plummeting by 10.3% in Q2 following a 2.4% decline in Q1, while residential investment also fell by 4.6% [5] - Inventory changes further illustrate economic volatility, with inventory contributing 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1 but detracting 3.2 percentage points in Q2 [6] Inflation and Economic Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose to 2.54% in Q2, exceeding market expectations, which has led to more conservative spending and investment behaviors among households and businesses [8] - The economic landscape in the first half of 2025 has been characterized by significant fluctuations, with contrasting trends in imports and inventory affecting market sentiment and analyst predictions [8] Emerging Sectors - Surprisingly, sectors such as AI and data centers have not emerged as engines of economic growth, with reduced investments in power plants and a slowdown in data center and IT investments [9] Employment and Income Relevance - For the general public, GDP figures are less relevant than personal employment and income, as the true impact of economic conditions is reflected in daily life [11]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's industrial production showed a significant rebound in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7%, following declines of 2.2% in April [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone's industrial production grew by 3.7% in May, indicating overall improvement in manufacturing activities [1] - Non-durable consumer goods production was the main driver of the industrial production recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 8.5% in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - Energy production also saw a recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 3.7% in the Eurozone [1] - Capital goods production continued its upward trend, growing by 2.7% in the Eurozone [1] - However, intermediate goods and durable goods production showed weakness, with month-on-month declines of 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Ireland recorded the highest month-on-month industrial production growth at 12.4%, followed by Malta at 3.4% and Germany at 2.2% [1] - Year-on-year, non-durable consumer goods production in the Eurozone increased by 11.6%, while intermediate goods and durable goods saw declines of 1.8% and 0.1% respectively [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian consumer prices have accelerated for the first time in four months, indicating potential price pressures that may prevent the Bank of Canada from lowering interest rates later this month [1] Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - The overall inflation acceleration is attributed to a narrowing decline in gasoline prices in June, alongside increases in passenger vehicle and furniture prices due to tariffs [1] - Excluding energy factors, the index rose by 2.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cost Pressures - The uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs in June appears to have begun pushing prices higher, with businesses facing rising costs likely to pass these increases onto consumers [1] - Durable goods prices increased by 2.7%, surpassing the previous rate of 2% [1]

Core Insights - Overall consumer purchasing willingness has declined, but the indices for car purchases and durable goods purchases still show some positive performance, indicating consumer confidence in certain areas of spending [1][2] Consumer Confidence Index - The Shanghai Consumer Confidence Index for Q2 2025 is reported at 105.4 points, a decrease of 6.0 points from the previous quarter and a decrease of 6.9 points year-on-year [1] - The consumer evaluation index stands at 105.2 points, down 6.2 points quarter-on-quarter and down 7.7 points year-on-year [1] - The consumer expectation index is at 105.6 points, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.8 points and a year-on-year decline of 6.1 points [1] Purchasing Willingness Index - The purchasing willingness index is at 98.8 points, down 5.5 points quarter-on-quarter but up 16.1 points year-on-year [2] - The home buying index is at 69.9 points, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 16.3 points but a year-on-year increase of 5.7 points [2] - The car buying index is at 100.6 points, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9 points and a year-on-year increase of 12.3 points [2] - The durable goods buying index is at 126.0 points, down 2.0 points quarter-on-quarter but up 30.3 points year-on-year, indicating strong confidence in this category [2] Purchasing Expectation Index - The purchasing expectation index is at 87.8 points, down 4.6 points quarter-on-quarter but up 5.0 points year-on-year [2] - The home buying expectation index is at 74.6 points, down 11.5 points from the previous quarter but up 4.1 points year-on-year [2] - The car buying expectation index is at 101.0 points, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.3 points and a year-on-year increase of 5.7 points [2] Analysis of Decline - The decline in the consumer confidence index may be attributed to a pullback after significant increases in previous quarters, particularly in purchasing willingness indices [4] - Key indicators related to livelihood, such as income evaluation and employment situation evaluation, have shown notable declines, which may weaken consumer confidence [4] - Global economic uncertainties, including U.S. tariff increases, have also contributed to the decline in consumer confidence [4] Recommendations - It is suggested to implement targeted policies to support consumer sectors like automobiles and durable goods, such as optimizing subsidies for new energy vehicles and improving the trade-in service system for durable goods [4] - There is a need to stabilize employment and income expectations to strengthen the foundation of consumer confidence, as both income evaluation and employment situation indices have significantly decreased [5]

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis emphasizes the importance of month-on-month (MoM) price changes over year-on-year (YoY) changes, providing a clearer understanding of price differentiation trends in the current year [4][14]. CPI Analysis - Overall, the cumulative MoM increase in CPI for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024. However, the core CPI shows a cumulative MoM increase of 0.5%, slightly better than the 0.4% increase in the same period [5][15]. - In terms of categories, food prices have a cumulative MoM increase of -0.6% (compared to -1% in the past four years), rent at 0.1% (0% previously), and core goods at 0.9% (0.1% previously) are considered "strong." Conversely, energy prices at -2.3% (3.8% previously) and core services (excluding rent) at 0.5% (1.2% previously) are deemed "weak" [5][15]. - Detailed breakdowns show that within food, fresh fruits, beef, lamb, and pork prices are "strong" with declines of -7.4% and -16.4%, while grains, cooking oils, fresh vegetables, seafood, and dairy prices are "weak." In energy, water, electricity, and fuel prices are "weak" with a decline of -5.4% [6][16]. PPI Analysis - The cumulative MoM increase in PPI for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, which is weaker than the -0.5% increase during the same period last year [8][23]. - In terms of categories, clothing (0% this year vs. -0.2% last year) and general daily necessities (0.2% vs. 0.1%) are "strong," while mining (-8.7% vs. -1.2%), raw materials (-2.4% vs. 0.9%), and durable goods (-1.4% vs. -1.2%) are "weak" [8][23]. - Among 32 comparable industries, 10 show "strong" prices, mainly in downstream manufacturing and electric water industries. In mining, black metal extraction is "strong," while coal extraction and oil and gas extraction are "weak" [9][24]. May Inflation Data Review - CPI shows a slight decline both YoY and MoM, with food prices experiencing a small YoY drop and energy prices seeing a deeper YoY decline. Core CPI shows a slight YoY increase [29][39]. - The MoM CPI decreased by 0.2%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past five years. Food prices shifted from a 0.2% increase to a 0.2% decrease, while energy prices dropped by 1.7% [31][39]. - The core CPI reflects a 0.1% decrease in rent, which is lower than the 2015-2019 average, and a stable core goods price. Durable goods prices continue to decline, with transportation tools down by 0.4% [32][36]. Price Change Proportions - The proportion of CPI items with price increases has expanded, with the ratio rising from 24% to 29%, which is at the 11% percentile since 2016 [44]. - Conversely, the proportion of PPI industries with price increases has significantly narrowed, with the number of industries increasing prices dropping from 8 to 5, resulting in a decrease from 27% to 17% [46].