同比数据方面，非耐用消费品依旧表现强劲，欧元区增长11.6%，欧盟增长9.4%；资本品生产同比分别 增长4.5%和4.4%。中间产品与耐用品则同比下降，其中欧元区中间产品下降1.8%，耐用品微降0.1%。 国家层面，爱尔兰同比增幅高达40.7%，居欧盟首位，芬兰和瑞典分别增长5.9%和5.0%。而比利时、保 加利亚和丹麦工业生产则出现较大幅度同比下滑，分别下降7.3%、6.5%和4.2%。 数据显示，自去年底以来，欧元区工业生产呈现波动回升态势，尤其是消费相关产业回暖为整体制造业 提供支撑。 分类数据显示，非耐用消费品生产在当月大幅增长，是推动整体工业生产回升的主要动力。欧元区非耐 用品生产环比增长8.5%，欧盟增长7.1%。能源生产也出现回暖，欧元区增长3.7%，欧盟增长3.2%。资 本品生产延续升势，分别增长2.7%和2.0%。 不过，中间产品与耐用品生产表现疲弱。欧元区中间产品和耐用品环比分别下降1.7%和1.9%；欧盟则 下降1.3%和1.8%。 从成员国看，工业生产环比增幅最大的国家为爱尔兰，增长12.4%；其次为马耳他（+3.4%），德国增 幅2.2%，表现也较为亮眼。 新华财经法兰克福7月15日 ...

加拿大消费者价格四个月来首次加速上涨 金十数据7月15日讯，加拿大消费者价格四个月来首次加速上涨，潜在价格压力也有所加剧，这可能使 加拿大央行本月晚些时候不会降息。整体通胀加速的原因在于，6月汽油价格跌幅收窄，同时乘用车和 家具价格受关税影响当月出现上涨。剔除能源因素后，该指数同比上涨2.7%。数据还显示6月贸易和关 税的不确定性似乎已开始推高物价，面临成本上升的企业将增加的成本转嫁给了消费者。耐用品价格上 涨2.7%，高于此前的2%。 ...

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 事 项 5月，CPI同比下降0.1%，预期下降0.2%，前值下降0.1%；核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，前值上涨0.5%。PPI同 比下降3.3%，预期下降3.2%，前值下降2.7%。 核心观点 物价环比的意义较同比可能更为重要。我们系统分析，从环比来看，今年以来的物价，哪些"强"，哪 些"弱"，更有助于全面和定量地看待物价的分化特征 。 CPI的"强"与"弱" 就CPI而言，因季节性较为明显且变动相对较小，若今年前5个月的环比累计涨幅大于2021-2024年同期环比 累计涨幅，定义为"强"，反之定义为"弱" 。 第一，整体来看 ，今年以来CPI环比累计涨幅为0%，弱于2021-24年同期的0.4%；但核心CPI环比累计涨幅 为0.5%，略好于2021-24年同期的0.4%。 第二，从大类来看 ， 食品 （ 今年环比累计涨幅-0.6%，过去4年同期为-1%，下同） 、 房租（0.1%， 0%）、核心商品（0.9%，0.1%） 价格"强"，能源（-2.3%，3.8%）、除房租以 ...