国泰海通晨报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] 1、【固定收益研究】：近期国债期货对权益市场的"跟跌"不仅是源于现券端产生的压力，更意 味着权益市场与国债期货的相关关系已迈入新阶段。 2、【计算机研究】计算机：当前，AI 应用已在各类金融机构的核心业务以及中后台场景中加速渗 透，助推金融机构内部效率与外部价值双升。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 唐元懋(分析师) 0755-23976753 tangyuanmao@gtht.com S0880524040002 孙越(分析师) 021-38031033 sunyue6@gtht.com S0880525080004 专题研究：《再论股债同向：国债期货与权益市场关系进入新阶 段》2025-11-24 近期股债走势的趋同引起了市场的广泛关注，但从分钟 K 线来看 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 国债期货与权益市场的日内的负相关性并未 ...

Core Insights - The financial industry is experiencing a significant shift towards AI applications, driven by both internal and external factors, marking a pivotal moment for AI implementation in finance [2] - The release of DeepSeek R1 in 2025 is expected to enhance general model reasoning capabilities and reduce costs, facilitating localized AI deployment in financial institutions [1][3] - AI is anticipated to transform financial business processes and organizational structures, ushering in a new era of digital intelligence in finance [1] Industry Drivers - The financial sector is characterized as data, information, and decision-intensive, making it an ideal testing ground for AI applications [2] - Since the introduction of GPT-1 by OpenAI in 2018, general model technology has progressed from "technology validation" to "industry adaptation," indicating readiness for large-scale application in vertical sectors [2] - Recent policies and top-level designs have provided external impetus for financial institutions to transition from "digital intelligence" to "artificial intelligence" [2] Technological Pathways - There are two main technological approaches for integrating AI in finance: 1. Training general models with financial data, enhancing the ability to solve complex financial problems, with DeepSeek R1 marking a key industry milestone for localized AI deployment [3] 2. Developing financial-specific models that better address industry-specific challenges and compliance requirements [3] - AI agents, particularly multi-agent collaboration, are identified as a future focus area, with current applications primarily in short-thinking financial scenarios like understanding and information extraction [3] Investment Opportunities - Suggested sectors for investment include: 1. Financial information services with recommended stocks like Tonghuashun and JiuFang Zhitou Holdings [4] 2. Third-party payment services with recommended stocks like Newland and New Guodu [4] 3. Banking IT with recommended stocks including Yuxin Technology and Jingbeifang [4] 4. Securities IT with recommended stocks such as Hengsheng Electronics and Jinzhen Shares [4] 5. Insurance IT with recommended stocks like New Wisdom Software and Zhongke Software [4]

Group 1 - The securities IT sector is experiencing a downturn, with Xiangcai Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit down [1] - Other companies such as Lingzhi Software, Great Wisdom, Guiding Compass, Yingshisheng, Tonghuashun, and Jinzhen Co., Ltd. are also seeing declines [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 16.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 455 million yuan, an increase of 2.16% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company faced short-term pressure with a revenue of 1.063 billion yuan, down 21.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, down 53.17% year-on-year [1]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of 69.0% for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting strong profitability despite revenue pressures [2]. - The company is actively exploring business boundaries in the Xinchuang (信创) industry, successfully launching its UF3.0 core business system at multiple securities firms, enhancing operational efficiency [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.2 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, and 1.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50, 44, and 37 [3][8]. - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with sales, management, and R&D costs decreasing by 24.99%, 25.69%, and 9.90% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The forecasted revenue for 2025 is 6.048 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.1% compared to 2024, with a projected recovery in subsequent years [8].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, 150 brokerage firms achieved operating income of 251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and net profit of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - Among 42 listed brokerages, total operating income reached 251.9 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 104 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year [1] Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the major listed companies in the securities IT industry showed mixed performance, with Hanxing Electronics reporting the highest revenue but lower net profit compared to Tonghuashun [2][4] - Hanxing Electronics' revenue was 2.426 billion yuan, a decline of 14.44% year-on-year, while its net profit was 192 million yuan, an increase of 41.89% year-on-year [4] - The top four business segments of Hanxing Electronics all experienced year-on-year revenue declines, with the wealth technology service segment at 532 million yuan, down 3.13%, and the asset management technology service segment at 488 million yuan, down 32.35% [4][5] Financial Metrics - Hanxing Electronics had the highest accounts receivable among six securities IT service providers, with a value of 1.138 billion yuan, and the lowest accounts receivable turnover rate at 2.32 times [7][8] - The gross margin for Hanxing Electronics was 69.29%, lower than Tonghuashun's 86.65%, and the net profit margin was 12.28%, also below Tonghuashun's 28.85% [7] - The net cash flow from operating activities for Hanxing Electronics was -901 million yuan, indicating a significant cash flow issue compared to its net profit [11][14] Debt and Liquidity Ratios - Hanxing Electronics had a current ratio of 1.15 and a quick ratio of 0.98, both the lowest among the six companies analyzed, indicating weaker short-term debt repayment capability [15]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, 150 brokerage firms achieved operating income of 251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and net profit of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - Among 42 listed brokerages, total operating income reached 251.9 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year [1] Company Performance - Major listed companies in the securities IT sector showed mixed performance, with Dazhihui having the highest expense ratio exceeding 70%, while Wealth Trend had the lowest at 26.88% [1][2] - Dazhihui's operating income for the first half of 2025 was 37.9 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.19%, but it reported a net loss of 3.47 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 13.78 million yuan in the same period last year [2][3] Expense Ratios - Dazhihui's expense ratio was 70.28%, the highest among its peers, with significant sales and management expenses, while its R&D expense ratio was relatively low at 22.33% [3][6] - Dazhihui's R&D expenses decreased by 27.41% year-on-year, raising concerns about its competitive edge in the market [7] Merger Implications - The merger between Dazhihui and Xiangcai Securities is progressing, but past attempts at integration have not yielded significant business synergies [7][8] - Post-merger, the basic earnings per share (EPS) are expected to decline significantly, from 0.04 yuan/share to -0.02 yuan/share for the 2024 fiscal year, indicating a 40% drop in EPS for the first half of 2025 [8][9]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, 150 brokerage firms achieved operating income of 251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and net profit of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - Among 42 listed brokerages, total operating income reached 251.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Group 1: Performance of Securities IT Companies - The performance of major listed companies in the securities IT industry varied, with companies like Tonghuashun showing the highest sales expenses and expense ratio [1][2] - Tonghuashun's operating income for the first half of 2025 was 1.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.07%, and its net profit attributable to shareholders was 502 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.29% [2] - Despite strong performance, Tonghuashun had the highest sales expenses of 335 million yuan and a sales expense ratio of 18.82%, significantly above the average of 10.24% for the other five companies [2][5] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Ratios - Tonghuashun's sales expenses grew by 38.15%, outpacing its revenue growth of 28.07%, indicating a high dependency on marketing for its performance [5] - The asset-liability ratio for Tonghuashun was 33.64%, the highest among the six companies analyzed, while other companies had lower ratios ranging from 4.37% to 31.36% [5] - As of mid-2025, Tonghuashun held 8.618 billion yuan in cash, representing 83.41% of its total assets, with a low cash yield of approximately 0.79% [6][7] Group 3: Investment and Utilization of Cash - The lack of trading financial assets for Tonghuashun raises questions about the utilization of its substantial cash reserves, as it has not invested in financial products to enhance cash yield [6][7] - In contrast, another securities IT service provider, Dingdian Software, achieved a higher cash yield of approximately 1.23% due to its investment strategies [6][7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, 150 brokerage firms achieved operating income of 251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and net profit of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - Among 42 listed brokerages, total operating income reached 251.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Group 2: Performance of Securities IT Companies - The performance of major listed companies in the securities IT sector varied, with the highest revenue from Hengsheng Electronics at 2.426 billion yuan and the lowest from Wealth Trend at 133 million yuan, which also experienced a decline [1][2] - Wealth Trend's total revenue decreased by 9.96% to 133 million yuan, while its net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.61% to 107 million yuan, and its non-recurring net profit fell by 13.77% to 67 million yuan [2][4] Group 3: Research and Development Insights - Wealth Trend's R&D personnel decreased from 328 to 310, and average R&D salary dropped by 11.66% to 69,700 yuan, indicating a reduction in investment in R&D despite being a R&D-driven company [5][6] - The decline in R&D expenses by 3.17% to 40 million yuan was attributed to the reduction in both the number of R&D personnel and their salary levels [5][6] Group 4: Market Valuation and Shareholder Actions - Wealth Trend's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) reached 125.08, the highest among six companies, while other companies had significantly lower P/E ratios [8] - The controlling shareholder of Wealth Trend, Huang Shan, planned to reduce holdings of up to 7.6834 million shares, valued at approximately 863 million yuan based on the stock price at the time of the announcement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the securities IT industry is mixed, with a notable decline in revenue and profitability for Jinzheng Co., which is significantly lagging behind its peers in various financial metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Jinzheng Co. reported a revenue of 1.208 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.55% year-on-year [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -39 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -58 million yuan [2]. - Jinzheng Co. had the lowest net profit margin at -3.16%, while competitors had positive margins ranging from -0.91% to 81.32% [8]. Group 2: Comparison with Peers - Among six major securities IT companies, Jinzheng Co. had the lowest gross margin at 36.93%, while others exceeded 60% [5]. - The company’s revenue growth rate was the lowest, nearly halving compared to the previous year [3]. - Competitors such as Tonghuashun and Hengsheng Electronics reported non-recurring net profits of 484 million yuan and 192 million yuan, respectively, contrasting sharply with Jinzheng's losses [3]. Group 3: Research and Development - Jinzheng Co.'s R&D expenses were 244 million yuan, a decline of 9.53% year-on-year, marking the lowest among its peers [9]. - The R&D expense ratio for Jinzheng Co. was 20.17%, significantly lower than competitors, which ranged from 22.33% to 42.71% [9]. - The decline in R&D investment raises concerns about the company's competitive edge in a sector where high R&D is crucial for success [9].

Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, 150 brokerage firms achieved operating income of 251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and net profit of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - Among 42 listed brokerages, total operating income reached 251.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Group 2: R&D Expenditure Analysis - Six major securities IT service providers showed varied performance in R&D expenditure, with 恒生电子 having the highest R&D expenses and R&D expense ratio in H1 2025, while 财富趋势 had the lowest R&D expenses [2] - Notably, 大智慧, 顶点软件, and 恒生电子 experienced a decline in R&D expenses exceeding 10%, which contradicts the industry's reliance on technology [2][3] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - 顶点软件 reported a revenue of 246 million yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 7.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.4% to 52.88 million yuan [3][4] - The decline in revenue for 顶点软件 was attributed to fewer project acceptances compared to the previous year [4] - Despite the increase in net profit, 顶点软件's cash flow from operating activities was negative at -127 million yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy between profit and cash flow [7] Group 4: Financial Asset Management - As of the end of H1 2025, 顶点软件's cash and trading financial assets totaled 949 million yuan, accounting for 57.4% of total assets [5] - The company reported a total of 82.57 thousand yuan in investment income from its securities investments, which corresponds to a low return rate of approximately 1.28% [7]