Group 1 - In 2025, precious metals experienced a significant price surge driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical events, supply-demand mismatches, and market sentiment, surpassing most initial expectations [2][21] - Platinum prices rose dramatically from $1,664 per ounce at the beginning of December to a peak of $2,478.5 per ounce, marking a nearly 50% increase [2][21] - Palladium prices followed platinum's trend, increasing from a low of $1,422.5 per ounce to $1,959.7 per ounce, with a volatility of approximately 37.6% [2][21] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic landscape is reminiscent of the 1970s oil crisis, with nations competing for core resources and geopolitical conflicts driving up commodity prices [8][27] - The demand for platinum and palladium is influenced by their applications in hydrogen energy and other renewable sectors, similar to the historical significance of oil [9][28] - Supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions and infrastructure limitations in producing countries have led to a structural shortage in the platinum market since 2023 [11][34] Group 3 - According to WPIC, platinum supply is expected to decline by 2% in 2025 to 222 tons, primarily due to reduced output from South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe [11][31] - Global demand for platinum is projected to decrease by 5% to 243 tons in 2025, with industrial demand particularly affected by tariffs and rising raw material costs [11][31] - For palladium, supply is forecasted to decrease by 3.4% to 272.6 tons in 2025, with demand also declining by 2.1% to 273.1 tons, resulting in a slight deficit [12][35] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential balance in the platinum market, with supply expected to increase by 4% to 230 tons, while demand may decrease by 6% [11][34] - The palladium market may still face supply shortages, but the gap is expected to be smaller due to increased recycling and a slowdown in automotive demand [12][36] - The overall recovery in platinum group metals prices is improving the outlook for mining companies, with potential for increased production and profitability [13][33]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with gold and silver breaking historical highs, and platinum and palladium also experiencing upward momentum. Factors such as macroeconomic support, spot market contradictions, demand expectations, and market sentiment are driving precious metal prices. As the year ends, attention should be paid to the driving factors for the precious metals sector in the coming year and how they may differ from this year [3][10]. Gold - U.S. Monetary Policy: The median forecast from the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September and December indicates that the interest rate cut cycle may continue into 2026, but at a slower pace. Monitoring whether policy rates approach the theoretical neutral rate is essential [3][10]. - U.S. Fiscal Expansion: The Federal Reserve is set to restart balance sheet expansion in December, primarily through short-term Treasury purchases. The impact of this expansion on U.S. dollar liquidity should be observed [3][10]. - Geopolitical Factors: The global economic and political uncertainty index reached a historical high in April and remains elevated. Attention should be given to short-term impacts from "event-driven" factors on gold, as well as broader long-term strategic considerations [3][10]. Silver - Continued Macroeconomic Easing: The current macroeconomic environment remains accommodative, which may have a relatively mild impact on silver prices [4][11]. - Ongoing Spot Market Contradictions: Factors such as supply-demand gaps, tariff expectations leading to inventory arbitrage, and continuous accumulation in silver ETFs are causing persistent contradictions in the silver spot market. Monitoring changes in futures inventory, London market leasing rates, and domestic-international price differentials is crucial [5][11]. - Demand Growth Points: Attention should be paid to whether the growth rate of photovoltaic installations domestically and internationally will face a decline, as well as the consumption of silver by AI computing centers [6][12]. Platinum and Palladium - Supply Constraints: South Africa is facing electricity supply shortages, rising mining costs, and decreased willingness to develop new projects, which may limit the growth elasticity of platinum group metal production next year. The potential for recycled supply to alleviate tight supply-demand conditions should be monitored [6][13]. - Demand Side Differences: In the automotive catalytic field, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid vehicles globally may alleviate the pressure on platinum and palladium demand caused by the decline in pure gasoline vehicle ownership. The forms of investment demand differ, with physical investment in platinum and financial instruments like ETFs for palladium being areas of focus [6][13]. - Capital Outflow Effect: Attention should be given to the "investment spillover" effect within the precious metals sector, especially after sustained strong performance in silver, which may lead to significant price fluctuations in platinum and palladium [6][13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Driven by recent events, the short - term price of precious metals is expected to remain strong. However, close attention should be paid to the US precious metal import tariff policy, as the failure of the tariff policy may lead to a correction in precious metal prices and cross - market spreads. For short - term trading, the support levels for gold are 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. London silver has broken through the resistance in the 37 - 37.3 area, and the upside may extend to the 40 area. The strategy of buying on dips is still recommended [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, precious metal prices generally showed a strong performance, with significant increases in silver and palladium. The premium of precious metal prices in the US market over London spot prices widened significantly, possibly due to concerns about additional tariffs on other key imported minerals after Trump unexpectedly imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports. The prices of palladium, platinum, and silver in the US market have reached new highs. Attention should be paid to the future direction of Trump's import tariff policy on precious metals [1]. - Regarding trade tariffs, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs was postponed from July 9 to August 1. Starting from August 1, the US will impose different tariff rates on various countries, such as 25% on Japan, South Korea, etc., 30% on South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, etc., and 50% on Brazil [1]. - In terms of the Fed's monetary policy, Fed Governor Waller said that a rate cut in July could be considered, and he supported continuing the balance - sheet reduction and increasing the proportion of short - term assets [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14758.5 tons [2]. - Short - term fund holdings: According to the CFTC持仓 report as of July 8, the non - commercial net long positions in gold increased by 988 contracts to 202968 contracts, with long positions increasing by 3054 contracts and short positions increasing by 2066 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions in silver decreased by 4879 contracts to 58521 contracts, with long positions decreasing by 1968 contracts and short positions increasing by 2911 contracts [2]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 1143 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 135.7 tons to 15393.7 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 3.13 tons to 24.59 tons, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1303.6 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory (as of the week of July 4) decreased by 3.33 tons to 1319.9 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening [3]. - Events: - Domestic: On Monday at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025; at 15:00, it will hold a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025. On Tuesday at 10:00, it will hold a press conference on the national economic operation in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Overseas: There are multiple speeches by Fed officials and the Bank of England governor throughout the week, and the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions on Thursday. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3][4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table also presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity market indicators, including the US dollar index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, etc. [18].