2026 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 强劲服务业支撑经济韧性 美国 12 月 PMI 显示服务业与制造业明显分化。服务业 PMI 扩张速度创 1 年来新 高，产需两端延续走强，就业指数自对等关税实施以来首次重回扩张，物价指 数扩张速度降至关税前水平；制造业 PMI连续 3个月加速收缩，需求依然疲软， 进出口活动低迷，企业延续去库存趋势。服务业 PMI 连续扩张显示美国经济仍 有韧性，而油价下跌和房租涨幅收窄推动通胀可能小幅回落，短期内美国经济 处于金发姑娘状态，美元流动性保持宽松，对风险资产形成支撑。但随着油价 接近美国页岩油盈亏平衡点、房租涨幅降至低于过去 10 年历史均值和其他商品 价格反弹，美国通胀可能在下半年止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期可能升温， 风险资产价格可能经历波动。我们预计美联储可能在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参 ...

JOLTS数据较BLS的月度就业报告滞后一个月。作为对照，BLS此前公布的就业形势报告显示，美国11 月新增非农就业岗位6.4万个，增速已明显放缓。 从供需关系来看，职位空缺与失业人数之比是衡量劳动力市场紧张程度的重要指标。11月，美国失业人 口约为783.1万人，职位空缺为714.6万个，意味着每名失业者仅对应0.91个岗位，不仅显著低于疫情前 水平，也创下自2021年3月以来最低值，显示劳动力需求正在降温。 美国劳动力市场再现降温信号。 智通财经APP获悉，根据最新公布的职位空缺与劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)数据，11月职位空缺数意外连 续第二个月下降，降至714.6万个，不仅低于10月水平，也显著不及市场预期的761万个，创下自2024年 9月以来最低水平。 美国美国劳工统计局(BLS)在新闻稿中指出，11月职位空缺总量变化不大，仍约为710万个；当月招聘人 数与人员离职总数均基本持平，均为510万人。在离职结构中，主动辞职人数约为320万人，裁员及解雇 人数约为170万人，整体波动有限。 JOLTS报告是BLS每月发布的重要劳动力调查，涵盖职位空缺、招聘、辞职以及裁员与解雇等指标。与 反映劳动力供给的 ...

Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI increased from 50.1 in July to 52 in August, exceeding market expectations of 51, indicating economic expansion[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.1%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below the market expectation of 49, indicating a continued contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector slightly improved from 46.4 to 46.5, indicating ongoing weakness in the job market[2] - The price index for services decreased marginally from 69.9 to 69.2, but remains significantly high compared to the post-pandemic average[2] - If August's non-farm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in September or October[1] Market Outlook - The new orders index in manufacturing surged from 47.1 to 51.4, marking the highest expansion rate since the beginning of the year[2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation risks to a more balanced assessment due to recent labor market data adjustments[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated in December and potentially two more in the following year as economic growth stabilizes and inflation decreases[1]

Core Insights - The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reported that the business confidence index in Italy remained stable as of August 2025 [1] Industry Analysis - Business confidence in Italy showed a divergent trend across sectors: confidence in manufacturing, construction, and retail sectors declined, while the confidence in the market services sector significantly improved [1] - The decline in confidence in certain sectors was attributed to negative factors such as poor production or business expectations, inventory accumulation, and unfavorable order trends [1] - The recovery in market services confidence was primarily driven by positive developments in the transportation and warehousing, as well as information and communication industries [1]

Group 1: Economic Activity - The ISM's Services PMI for July recorded at 50.1%, indicating continued economic expansion despite a slight decline from June's 50.8% [1] - The Services PMI has been in the expansion zone for 12 out of the last 13 months, reflecting resilience in the sector [1] - Business activity index for July was at 52.6%, down from 54.2% in June, but still indicates overall business activity [1] Group 2: Employment and Orders - The employment index fell to 46.4%, marking the fourth contraction in the last five months, indicating a decline in labor demand [1] - The new orders index decreased from 51.3% in June to 50.3% in July, showing a slowdown in growth but remaining in the expansion zone [1] Group 3: Supply Chain and Inflation - The supplier deliveries index was at 51%, indicating delays in supply for the eighth consecutive month, which is typically a sign of increased economic activity [2] - The prices index rose to 69.9%, the highest level since October 2022, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures faced by businesses [2] - The inventory index was at 51.8%, while the inventory sentiment index dropped to 53.2%, indicating a slight decrease in satisfaction with current inventory levels [2] Group 4: Industry Performance - In July, 11 service industries reported growth, with transportation and warehousing, wholesale trade, and finance and insurance showing the strongest performance [3] - Seven industries reported contraction, including accommodation and food services, construction, and mining [3] - Seasonal factors and weather changes were noted as negative impacts on business, alongside supply chain pressures due to transportation congestion [3]

Company - Amazon's founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million shares of Amazon stock within the next year, having established this trading plan on March 4. He remains the largest shareholder with a stake valued at approximately $4.8 billion [3] - ExxonMobil's CEO Darren Woods stated that the company has not yet seen substantial impacts from tariffs on its project development. The company reported first-quarter profits slightly above analyst expectations and achieved production growth. Woods mentioned that the company has initiated "comprehensive response measures" to manage the effects of tariffs, which have increased economic uncertainty and raised the risk of a slowdown [4] Industry - The healthcare sector led job growth in April, adding 51,000 positions. Transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, while financial services contributed 14,000 jobs [3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.8%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than anticipated, marking the lowest level since July 2024 [3] - OPEC+ is expected to hold a meeting on June production levels, with a significant increase in output anticipated. This has led to a decline in crude oil futures prices, with WTI futures dropping by 1.6% to $58.29 per barrel and Brent crude falling by 1.4% to $61.29 per barrel [4] - Gold prices saw a slight increase, reversing some losses, but still recorded a cumulative decline of 1.6% for the week, settling at $3,231.90 per ounce, marking the second consecutive week of decline [4]