电芯6家： 铁锂排产113.6GWh，环比+9%，同比+49%； 三元排产22.2GWh，环比+1%，同比+12%； 其中龙头为55+18.5=73.5GWh，环比+6%，同比+41% 正极： 三元正极4家排产2.6万吨，环比+2%，同比+15%； 铁锂正极4家排产13.0万吨，环比+0%，同比+19%； 负极4家：排产16.3万吨，环比+6%，同比+50%； 隔膜3家：排产17.2亿平米，环比+4%，同比+31%； 电解液2家：排产10.0万吨，环比+4%，同比+46% 数说新能源服务类型： 往 期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ：储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a range-bound trend. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 72,820 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply of lithium ore increased, with the weekly output reaching a new high of 20,516 tons. The demand from the domestic energy storage market exceeded expectations, but the cathode materials maintained inventory accumulation. The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the de-stocking speed slowed down for three consecutive weeks [2]. - In the future, it is expected that the price will maintain a range-bound trend. The de-stocking speed of lithium carbonate has slowed down, and the downstream inventory preparation for the National Day is almost over. However, the demand on the consumer electronics and energy storage sides is expected to remain strong [3]. - For single - sided trading, the price of the futures main contract is expected to run in the range of 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. For cross - period trading, due to strong demand but increasing warehouse receipts, arbitrage is not recommended. For hedging, considering the significant price fluctuations caused by the change of lithium ore mining rights, it is recommended to increase the hedging ratio and use options for hedging [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents various price data of lithium - related products, including the prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, electrolytes, positive electrode materials, and lithium batteries, as well as their week - on - week changes [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - The shipment volume of Australian lithium ore increased significantly, with 230,000/441,000 tons shipped in the first four weeks of August and September respectively. The price of lithium ore was firm but not significantly stronger [2]. - The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 20,516 tons. The disk profit and spot profit weakened, but the spot price remained strong. The shipment volume of lithium salts from Chile was 25,600/27,400 tons in August and September [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, inventory, and import - export volume of lithium carbonate, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate [10][11][12]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report shows the apparent consumption, inventory available days, monthly production, and monthly operating rates of lithium - battery - related products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of lithium batteries through multiple charts [15][16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the production data of various battery components, indicating a positive growth trend in both lithium-ion battery cells and their components [1] - The production of ternary battery cells reached 21.9 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cells was 102.9 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 56% [1] - Leading companies in the sector produced a total of 69.5 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 43% [1] Group 2 - The production of ternary cathodes from four companies reached 25,000 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 1% but a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - The production of lithium iron phosphate cathodes from four companies was 127,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 28% [1] - The production of anodes from four companies reached 152,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 44% [1] - The production of separators from three companies was 1.64 billion square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - The production of electrolytes from two companies reached 97,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 44% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that Huayou Cobalt's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 reached 2.71 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.3%, with the second quarter net profit at 1.46 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% and a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Huayou Cobalt's net profit contributions from Huayue and Huafei totaled 1.26 billion yuan [1] - The cost of MHP nickel is reported at 12,000 USD per ton, while the average nickel price in Q2 was 15,500 USD per ton, leading to an estimated profit of 3,500 USD per ton [1] - The company is expected to contribute 3 to 3.5 billion yuan in nickel profits for the year 2025 [1] Market Outlook - Nickel prices are currently at a low point, suggesting significant price elasticity in the future [1] - The increase in cobalt prices since Q2 is expected to enhance performance, with a potential second wave of price increases in the latter half of the year [1] - The shipment of ternary cathodes saw a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase, with an annual growth forecast of over 90% [1] Valuation - Given the current nickel price situation, the company is assigned a target price of 53 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio for the year 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities issued a report on August 18, giving Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) a "buy" rating with a target price of 53 yuan, citing strong performance and growth potential in the cobalt and nickel markets [2] Summary by Relevant Categories Performance and Financials - The company's performance is in line with expectations, as indicated by the earnings forecast [2] - The nickel hydrometallurgy project continues to exceed production targets, maintaining stable profit per ton [2] - Cobalt prices have risen since Q2, providing earnings elasticity, with a potential second wave of price increases expected in the second half of the year [2] - Copper is contributing stable profits, while lithium is at breakeven [2] - Q2 shipments of ternary cathodes increased significantly, with an expected annual growth of over 90% [2] - Cautious impairment loss provisions were made in Q2, leading to a decline in operating cash flow [2] Risks - Potential risks include significant fluctuations in upstream raw material prices and lower-than-expected electric vehicle sales [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huayou Cobalt (603799) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 aligns with expectations, with revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year [7] - Nickel profits remain stable, with significant contributions from the nickel wet process projects, while cobalt prices are expected to rise, enhancing profit elasticity [7] - The company anticipates a net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 44% increase year-on-year, with a target price of 53 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19% [1] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 3.351 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.25% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 1.97 yuan per share for 2023, with a P/E ratio of 22.47 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 73.845 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.17% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44.44% [1] - EPS is expected to reach 3.53 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 12.55 [1] Market Data - The closing price is 44.25 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 75.293 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.00 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.69% [6] Production and Sales Insights - Nickel product shipments reached 139,000 tons in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84% [7] - Cobalt product shipments are expected to be around 21,000 tons in 2025, with a projected average price increase contributing to profit growth [7] - The company aims for a significant increase in the sales of ternary cathode materials, targeting over 90% growth in 2025 [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the successful advancement of the Alashan Phase II project for Boyuan Chemical [4][7] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5] - The core product prices and gross margins for soda ash declined, but the increase in production and sales volume helped mitigate the impact of price drops [5][6] Group 2 - The company has successfully acquired multiple electronic gas projects, enhancing its position in the electronic gas market [9][10] - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, while net profit decreased by 13.44% [9][10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 26.37%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, but operating cash flow increased significantly by 84.34% [10] Group 3 - 361 Degrees reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 860 million yuan, also up 8.6% [12][13] - The e-commerce segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.82 billion yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year [13][14] - The company opened 49 new stores, enhancing its retail presence and brand image [15] Group 4 - Tencent Holdings reported Q2 2025 revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit of 55.6 billion yuan, up 17% [17][18] - The gaming segment experienced a robust 22% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [18][19] - The marketing services business grew by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [19] Group 5 - The report indicates that the chromium salt industry is experiencing significant growth, with Zhihua Co. achieving H1 2025 revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [29][30] - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.81%, up 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management [29][30] - The effective release of production capacity contributed to a notable increase in sales volume, particularly in chromium oxide and alloy additives [32][33] Group 6 - Yonghe Co. reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.445 billion yuan, a 12.39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 271 million yuan, up 140.82% [35][36] - The refrigerant segment benefited from favorable supply-demand dynamics, leading to a 26.02% increase in revenue [37] - The company is actively pursuing the development of fourth-generation refrigerants and high-end fluorinated fine chemicals [39] Group 7 - The coal industry showed signs of improvement, with July 2025 coal production at 380 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [40][41] - The report notes that the overall coal production growth rate has slowed due to adverse weather conditions and regulatory checks [42] - The performance of major coal companies varied, with some showing production increases while others faced declines [42]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric new energy industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in production and stable profitability for leading lithium battery companies, driven by high demand and a reduction in price wars within the lithium battery segment [3][4]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly for high-margin BC components, while other materials face challenges due to price declines [4]. - Wind power installations are on the rise, with expectations for accelerated performance in the second half of the year as demand remains strong [4]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: strong performance companies, supply-side reform opportunities, and new technologies such as solid-state batteries [4]. Summary by Sections Electric Vehicles - In Q2 2025, production across various lithium battery components saw year-on-year increases: ternary cathodes (+15%), iron-lithium cathodes (+53%), anodes (+23%), separators (+36%), electrolytes (+45%), and lithium batteries (+37%) [4]. - The overall profitability in the lithium battery segment is expected to stabilize and recover due to high operating rates among leading companies [4]. Photovoltaics - The PV sector experienced explosive growth in installations, with cumulative new installations exceeding 197GW from January to May 2025 [4]. - Major material companies are still facing losses, but the extent of losses has narrowed significantly in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 [4]. - Aiko Solar is noted for achieving profitability in Q2 2025, marking a significant milestone in the competitive landscape [4]. Wind Power - Wind power installations reached 46.28GW from January to May 2025, with expectations for continued growth in Q2 and Q3 [4]. - The report anticipates that the main machine segment will see improved profitability as orders for wind turbines increase [4]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include: 1. Strong performance: CATL, Keda, Zhuhai Guanyu, Hunan YN, and Sungrow [4]. 2. Supply-side reform: Tongwei, Daqo, Aiko, and Longi Green Energy [4]. 3. New technologies: Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and competitive landscape of the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery industry in China, emphasizing the increasing market share of LFP batteries over ternary batteries due to their cost-effectiveness, safety, and evolving performance characteristics [1][3][7]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, China's LFP cathode shipment reached 746,000 tons, marking an 88.9% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by demand in the power and energy storage sectors [1]. - The competitive landscape of the LFP cathode industry is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with Hunan Youneng leading the market with a share of 29.8%, followed by Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, Youshan Technology, and Guoxuan High-Tech, with a combined market share of 61.1% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The installation ratio of LFP batteries in China's power battery market reached 80.8% in Q1 2025, a 17 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the share of ternary batteries dropped to 19.2%, a decrease of 17 percentage points [3]. - The energy storage sector predominantly utilizes LFP batteries, with over 94% of installations being LFP, indicating a strong future demand for LFP technology [3][7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The LFP cathode has evolved through four generations, with the latest generation achieving a powder density of approximately 2.60 g/cm³ and a sheet density of about 2.75 g/cm³, enhancing energy density and performance [4][6]. - Companies are focusing on high-density LFP products, with several firms like Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy making significant advancements in production techniques and partnerships to enhance product offerings [6][7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The LFP cathode shipment in China is projected to reach 3.3 million tons in 2025, representing a 36.3% year-on-year growth, with expectations to reach 7.1 million tons by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 19.6% over the next six years [6][7].

Investment Ratings - Electric Equipment New Energy: Buy (Maintain) [1] - Public Utilities: Buy (Maintain) [1] - Environmental Protection: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on investment opportunities in wind power, virtual power plants, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries, highlighting the potential for significant advancements and investments in these areas [3][4]. - The European Union's initiative to develop a fusion energy strategy is expected to enhance Europe's leadership in the ITER project and attract social investment, indicating a competitive edge in fusion technology development [3]. - The market remains focused on the "Document 136" and "Green Electricity Direct Connection," with a noted decline in overall electricity prices, particularly in photovoltaic sectors, while wind power prices remain stable [3]. Summary by Sections Electric Equipment New Energy - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality assets in the context of "Document 136," recommending investments in wind power, virtual power plants, and energy storage [3][4]. - The wind power sector is expected to see a recovery in sales and profit margins due to improved output curves and the restructuring of new energy installation logic [4]. Public Utilities - The report notes stable coal prices, with domestic coal prices remaining unchanged at 618 CNY/ton as of June 13, 2025, while imported coal prices have slightly decreased [37]. - The focus on energy storage systems is highlighted, with several significant projects and tenders in the pipeline, indicating robust growth potential in this area [36]. Environmental Protection - The report suggests that the market may continue to speculate on controllable nuclear fusion and solid-state batteries, with a focus on domestic experimental projects and technological advancements in these fields [4]. - The report also indicates that the energy storage market is experiencing high growth, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a recommendation to monitor monthly data for household storage [4].