Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical factors, especially the conflict in the Middle East, which leads to significant fluctuations in various commodity prices. The market sentiment is complex, and different sectors show different trends. For example, the stock index shows a rebound trend, while the bond market is under pressure. In the commodity market, energy - related products are highly volatile, and agricultural products, metals, and other sectors also have their own characteristics due to different supply - demand relationships and external factors [20][24][131]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 4,100 points. The trading volume of the whole market reached 2.42 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also rose, but the trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the shock, and the trading strategy is to buy at dips [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. The central bank net - injected 52 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The export data from January to February was strong, and the risk appetite of the market increased. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The short - term bullish factors have been fully reflected, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. The spread between MRM09 can be considered to narrow [27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand is likely to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be strong. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but considering the low price and possible import policy tightening, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to reduce inventory in March, but the high inventory may remain. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level. The oils are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The USDA report is the same as last month, and the US corn price is stable. The demand for deep - processing increases, and the spot price of corn in the northeast and ports is strong. The 05 - contract corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, with limited upward space in the short term [40][43]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is large, and the price fluctuates. The scale enterprises and retail farmers have sufficient supply, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill still has profits. It is recommended to go long lightly at dips [48][51]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and the egg price rebounds slightly. It is recommended to short the June contract at high prices [52][54]. - **Apples**: The inventory decreases, and the price is firm. The May contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market rises, and the fundamentals of cotton have certain support. It is recommended to build long positions at dips [60][61]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The black sector fluctuates weakly at night. The steel output increases slightly, and the demand recovers seasonally, but the inventory accumulates. The steel price is affected by overseas geopolitical friction and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in crude oil. The fundamentals are secondary, and it is recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed again, and the price fluctuates. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio decreases. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment improves, and the prices of gold and silver are repaired. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average [73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the palladium may be affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to go long cautiously at dips [76][77]. - **Copper**: The geopolitical risk disturbs, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy lightly after the price stabilizes after a pull - back [78][81]. - **Alumina**: The price falls with the market sentiment, and the freight rate rises. It is expected to fluctuate after the price returns to rationality [83][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to go long at dips [86][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to go long at dips [91]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at dips [92][94]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy at lows and sell at highs [95][97]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [99][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [103][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, with a price reference of (8000, 8900) [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [107][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates at a high level under macro influence. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [110][113]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty in the Middle East increases, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the downstream consumption [113][116]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation cools down, and the freight rate of the mainstream shipping companies in the second half of March is gradually clear. It is recommended to wait and see [117][120]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation may lead to the differentiation of the large and small ship markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of weather on global shipments in the second half of the year [122][124]. - **Carbon Emissions**: In the domestic carbon market, the short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - and long - term price center is expected to be higher. In the EU carbon market, the price is supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on multiple factors [125][128]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical information is repeated, and the oil price fluctuates sharply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [131][132]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates under the geopolitical conflict. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover slowly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [134][135]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the geopolitical fluctuation risk. The supply is expected to tighten, and the demand in Singapore is expected to increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in FU2605 and narrow the spread between LU05 and FU05 [136][138]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price trend and fluctuates weakly [139][141]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [142][144]. - **PX & PTA**: PX enters the maintenance season, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [146][147]. - **BZ & EB**: The listed price of the main refineries is lowered. The supply of benzene and styrene may be affected, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [149][150]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian device stops, and the Middle East import source is affected. The supply - demand structure improves, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [151][152]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is good, but it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [153][154]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [155][156]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are supported, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [157][158]. - **Plastic PP**: The PE capacity utilization rate declines. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP main contracts and hold short positions for the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [159][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: It weakens, and it is recommended to wait and see [162][163]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to go long at lows and not chase the high [164][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to wait and see for the spread operation [167][169]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to short at high prices [170][172]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is expected to follow the decline of crude oil, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [173][174]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. The supply is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [176][178]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the valuation. It is expected to fluctuate around the cost line, and it is recommended to sell the put option of SP2605 - P - 5200 [180][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is loose, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices [184][186]. - **Logs**: The external market price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long at dips [187][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The price difference between the cup and the latex in Thailand continues to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts and sell the put option of RU2605 - 15750 at an appropriate time [190][194]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR main contract [195][197].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly impacted the global commodity market, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty. The conflict has affected the supply and prices of various commodities such as energy, metals, and agricultural products. [122][62][109] - The performance of different industries and commodities varies. Some industries are supported by cost or demand, showing a strong or stable trend, while others are under pressure due to factors such as oversupply or weak demand, showing a weak or volatile trend. [28][34][57] Summary of Each Section Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Spring Festival, the stock index showed differentiation. The A - share market was driven by price - increase expectations, with the main driving force coming from improved product supply - demand relationships and abundant social funds. The geopolitical conflict may lead to market fluctuations, but the stock index is still expected to maintain an upward trend. [21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the bond yield is expected to decline. However, the strengthening of the bond market may not be sustainable. The "Two Sessions" policy stance may focus on promoting domestic technology development and industrial transformation, and the impact of bond supply on the market is expected to be limited. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Geopolitical factors and weather conditions have increased market uncertainty. The US soybean processing volume and Brazilian soybean harvest are affected by various factors. The domestic soybean market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar production is expected to decline, but the start of the Brazilian new - sugar season in April and May may increase supply pressure. The domestic sugar market has supply pressure but is also supported by low prices and potential import - policy tightening. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, with a short - term slightly stronger trend. [29][31][32] - **Oils**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of crude oil, and the price of oils is expected to follow the upward trend. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the supply pressure of domestic soybean oil may be postponed. The overall domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. [33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The price of US corn has risen, and the domestic corn spot price has increased due to factors such as the start of deep - processing enterprises and the increase in corn supply in North China. However, considering the post - festival selling pressure, the upward space of the futures price is limited. [36][37] - **Hogs**: The overall supply of hogs is still large, and the price is generally in a downward trend. However, due to factors such as the good completion of large - scale enterprise slaughter and the decrease in the inventory of secondary fattening, the short - term spot price may be supported, and the downward space of the futures price is also limited. [38][39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut oil is also stable. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [41][42] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg market enters the off - season. Although the inventory has been alleviated to some extent, the overall de - stocking has weakened due to the good egg price performance. It is recommended to short the June contract. [44][47] - **Apples**: The inventory of apples has decreased significantly recently, and the demand is expected to improve further in March and April. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts also supports the price. It is recommended to go long on the May contract. [48][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals of cotton are relatively stable, with no obvious negative factors. The global cotton supply is expected to be slightly tight, and the signing situation has improved. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices. [53][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of the steel market continue to weaken, with reduced production, increased inventory, and weak demand. However, the geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of non - ferrous metals, leading to a short - term strong - oscillating trend in the steel price. [57] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The international geopolitical conflict may support the domestic coking coal price. The current coking coal price has basically priced in the existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the supply of domestic iron ore. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate. [62] - **Ferroalloys**: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to be strong due to cost support, and the price of ferromanganese silicon may be adjusted after a rapid increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and partially take profits in ferromanganese silicon. [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp rise in the price of gold and silver. The market is dominated by risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to be strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the remaining positions. [67][68] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price of platinum and palladium is mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand of funds. The price of platinum is expected to be slightly strong in the short term, while the price of palladium is expected to follow the trend of platinum. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and wait and see on palladium. [70][71][72] - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a high - level consolidation state. Although the geopolitical conflict has limited direct impact on copper, long - term war may support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. [74][76] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is supported, but the expectation of oversupply restricts the price. The price is expected to decline in an oscillating manner. [79] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict may increase the price volatility of electrolytic aluminum. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [80][81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum market. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [82][83] - **Zinc**: The price of zinc is affected by geopolitical factors and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes. [84][85][86] - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [87][88][89] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is mainly affected by macro factors, and the supply - demand relationship is still in a surplus state. However, the expected tight supply in Indonesia may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - capital trend. [90][91] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the price of nickel ore, and the price follows the trend of nickel. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [93][94] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see the spot trading situation. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [102][105] - **Tin**: The price of tin is in a high - level consolidation state. The impact of the Indonesian tin export ban is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. [106][108] Shipping and Carbon Emission - **Container Shipping**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has led some shipping companies to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope. The spot freight rate is in the off - season, but the conflict may drive up the freight rate. It is recommended to go long on dips. [109][110] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The deterioration of the trade environment in the Persian Gulf may boost the freight rate of small - sized ships in the short term. The BDI index has declined slightly, but the performance of small and medium - sized ship markets is better. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation. [112][113][115] - **Carbon Emission Market**: The domestic carbon market price is stable but lacks activity. The EU carbon market has not摆脱 the downward trend. In the short term, the domestic carbon price is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, while the EU carbon market is affected by policy uncertainty. [116][119][120] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant rise in the price of crude oil. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be in the range of $78 - 85 per barrel. It is recommended to take profits on out - of - the - money call options. [122] - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is supported by cost but is affected by weak demand. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks. [124][125] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the main driving force for the price of fuel oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply changes in Iran and Russia. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and not chase the high price. [127][129] - **LPG**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has increased the cost support of LPG, and the price is expected to rise significantly. [130] - **Natural Gas**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a supply - side risk in the natural gas market, and the price is expected to rise significantly in the short term. It is recommended to buy a TTF straddle option. [133][134] - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PTA is gradually returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [137][139] - **BZ & EB**: The supply of benzene and styrene is returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct reverse arbitrage. [140][142] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved, but the inventory has been continuously increasing. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [144][145] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce the processing cost spread at high prices. [146][147] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips is expected to be tight, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [148][149] - **Propylene**: The supply of propylene is partially returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [150][151][153] - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP at ports has been increasing. It is recommended to try to go long on the L 2605 contract at low prices and wait and see on the PP 2605 contract. [154][155] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to wait and see. [156][158] - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to follow the upward trend of the market. It is recommended to follow the market trend. [159][161] - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the high price. [162][163][164] - **Glass**: The price of glass is affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to short at high prices or sell call options. [165][166][167] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to rise strongly due to the geopolitical conflict. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [168][169] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and the demand is expected to start. The price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions. [170][173] - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to be strong in the short term, but the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on European pulp supply. [174][175][178] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory of offset printing paper restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. [179][180] - **Logs**: The supply and demand of logs are both weak, and the price is expected to be supported by cost. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions. [182][183] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to short a small amount of the RU 05 contract and wait and see on the NR 05 contract. [184][185][187] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to reduce the holding of the BR04 contract and hold long positions in the BR 05 contract. [188][189][191]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].