Group 1 - The three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3915.48 points, down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13633.19 points, down 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index at 3230.46 points, down 0.96% [1] - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment, which may enhance domestic monetary policy flexibility and boost market risk appetite [1] - The crowded midstream manufacturing sector may increase short-term market volatility risks, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy between growth and value styles [1] Group 2 - CICC indicates that the market has shown strong structural characteristics, with hotspots concentrated in growth sectors [2] - The strong demand for overseas AI computing power and China's clear energy transition goals are expected to drive structural opportunities in the stock market, with manufacturing upgrades being a long-term trend [2] - Recommended sectors for October include AI computing and robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and the livestock and feed industries [2]

Group 1 - The overall manufacturing PMI is still affected by external unfavorable conditions, but policies promoting "anti-involution" and the service sector have shown positive effects, leading to improved corporate confidence [1] - As external trade shocks gradually dissipate, the policy tone of expanding domestic demand and its actual effectiveness will be further reflected in the data [1] - The market expects the central bank to introduce further easing measures, which may boost market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Recent market performance shows strong structural characteristics, with hotspots concentrated in growth sectors [2] - The strong demand for overseas AI computing power continues to be validated, and China's clear energy transition goals position it as a manufacturing powerhouse participating in technological innovation [2] - Recommendations for October include focusing on AI computing and robotics-related industries, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals [2]

China has slashed its annual output growth target for key non-ferrous metals over 2025 and 2026, underscoring a policy shift from volume expansion to efficiency and sustainability. Production of the 10 main non-ferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, is now expected to rise by an average of 1.5% a year in the period, according to a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement on Sunday. That compares with the 5% pace set in the previous two-year blueprint. Most Read from Bloomberg Th ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 24, 2025 [1][3][4] Group 3: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 80000, LME 9894, ratio 8.11; March price: domestic 79920, LME 9967, ratio 8.02; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.10, profit - 118.34; Spot export profit - 117.86 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 21880, LME 2917, ratio 7.50; March price: domestic 21865, LME 2874, ratio 5.95; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.53, profit - 3003.69 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20680, LME 2642, ratio 7.83; March price: domestic 20695, LME 2642, ratio 7.83; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.38, profit - 1462.88 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 119750, LME 15047, ratio 7.96; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.17, profit - 1446.69 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16950, LME 1949, ratio 8.71; March price: domestic 17110, LME 1991, ratio 11.03; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.82, profit - 211.89 [3] Group 4: Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 270, - 270, - 280, - 290 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 503, 904, 1314, 1724 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 235, - 215, - 195, - 175 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 213, 333, 452, 572 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 65, - 55, - 60, - 50 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, 562 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 40, - 15, - 10, 50 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 531 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 490, - 300, - 60, 170 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread 560, theoretical spread 5597 [4] Group 5: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 215 and - 55 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 419 and 823 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 200 and - 35 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 154 and 281 [4] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 175 and 135 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 181 and 294 [5] Group 6: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (triple - continuous) are 3.66, 3.86, 4.67, 0.95, 1.21, 0.78 respectively; London (triple - continuous) are 3.45, 3.78, 4.98, 0.91, 1.32, 0.69 respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper fundamentals show resilience, with downstream开工 rising and weakening scrap substitution. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, with inventory expected to decline in September. Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices are moving down in a volatile way. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. - Nickel has weak short - term fundamentals, with high - level production and weak demand. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, but there are price - supporting policies [7]. - Stainless steel has weak fundamentals. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand. The short - term macro - situation follows the anti - involution expectation [7]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, while demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations. The domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally. The short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. With supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the scrap substitution effect weakened. The internal - external positive arbitrage has space [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: Aluminum prices declined slightly. The downstream开工 improved, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: Zinc prices moved down in a volatile way. Supply from overseas mines increased, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. The LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, and demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally, and demand is mainly rigid [12]. - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng [16]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Market Data**: Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. Supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand affect the market [18]. - **Strategy**: The price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 4, 2025 [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80,500, the LME price was 9,904, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 80,060, the LME price was 9,971, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 62.04, and the profit for spot export was - 72.03 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,230, the LME price was 2,887, and the ratio was 7.70; the domestic three - month price was 22,285, the LME price was 2,868, and the ratio was 5.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60, with a profit of - 2,592.13 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,730, the LME price was 2,618, and the ratio was 7.92; the domestic three - month price was 20,700, the LME price was 2,614, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.42, with a profit of - 1,307.59 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,450, the LME price was 15,073, and the ratio was 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.21, with a profit of - 1,650.13 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,725, the LME price was 1,950, and the ratio was 8.59; the domestic three - month price was 16,875, the LME price was 1,993, and the ratio was 11.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.85, with a profit of - 514.96 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 430, 380, 330, and 320 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 899, 1306, and 1714 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 5, 5, 15, and 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 30, - 40, - 50, and - 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 562 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 75, 90, and 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 430, - 320, - 90, and 50 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 660, and the theoretical spread was 5655 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 755 and - 325 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 126 and 634 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 125 and 255 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 75 and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 128 and 240 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.87, 4.74, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.49, 3.81, 5.00, 0.92, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [5].

Group 1 - On August 25, 28 out of 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index received net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 11.329 billion [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, computers, non-bank financials, automobiles, and machinery, each exceeding 1 billion in net inflows [1] Group 2 - A total of 2,147 individual stocks received net financing inflows on August 25, with 86 stocks having inflows exceeding 100 million [1] - Among these, 16 stocks had net inflows over 300 million, with Shenghong Technology leading at 1.578 billion [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows included Northern Rare Earth, Sungrow Power Supply, Industrial Fulian, New Yisheng, Haiguang Information, Dongfang Wealth, and Cambricon, each exceeding 600 million in net inflows [1]

Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on August 21, 2025 [1][4][8] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 78740, LME 9619, ratio 8.22; March price: domestic 78610, LME 9710, ratio 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.17, profit 287.54; spot export profit - 327.67 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22160, LME 2768, ratio 8.01; March price: domestic 22250, LME 2777, ratio 6.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.66, profit - 1804.06 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20520, LME 2566, ratio 8.00; March price: domestic 20500, LME 2568, ratio 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.46, profit - 1201.30 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 118750, LME 14825, ratio 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.25, profit - 2009.30 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16550, LME 1932, ratio 8.59; March price: domestic 16755, LME 1972, ratio 11.25. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.86, profit - 513.73 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 260, - 280, - 280, - 310 respectively; theoretical spreads are 496, 891, 1294, 1698 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 20, - 35, - 40, - 45 respectively; theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 30, - 65, - 90, - 115 respectively; theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 443, 558 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 85, - 70, - 40, - 20 respectively; theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, 525 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 270, - 30, 180, 420 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 2810, theoretical spread is 5556 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.83, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, 0.75 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.49, 3.77, 4.91, 0.92, 1.30, 0.71 respectively [8] Futures - Spot Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 155 and - 105 respectively; theoretical spreads are 452 and 850 [4] Zinc - Spreads for current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 125 and 105 respectively; theoretical spreads are 179 and 298 [5] Lead - Spreads for current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 275 and 190 respectively; theoretical spreads are 205 and 316 [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from October 8 of last year, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [2] Focus Stocks - Notable stocks included: - Beiwai Technology: 8 consecutive days of gains, up 10.04% [3] - Great Wall Military Industry: 10 consecutive days of gains, up 10.01% [3] - Zhongma Transmission: 11 consecutive days of gains, up 10.00% [3] - Hongtong Gas: 7 consecutive days of gains, up 10.02% [3] - Jishi Media: 8 consecutive days of gains, up 10.09% [3] - Furi Electronics: 8 consecutive days of gains, up 9.98% [3] - Haili Co.: 6 consecutive days of gains, up 10.01% [3] - Aerospace Science and Technology: 7 consecutive days of gains, up 10.03% [3] Market Trends - The market showed a mixed trend with more stocks rising than falling, with over 2,700 stocks increasing in value [3] - AI hardware stocks continued to perform well, with several stocks, including Industrial Fulian, reaching historical highs [3] - The brokerage sector saw a temporary surge, with Guosheng Financial Holdings achieving two consecutive gains [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong fluctuations, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum both reaching historical highs [3] - Sectors such as electronic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and biological products led in gains, while coal, banking, ports, and logistics sectors experienced declines [3] Stock Performance - A total of 92 stocks hit the daily limit, with 24 stocks on consecutive gains and 28 stocks failing to maintain their limits, resulting in a limit-hitting rate of 77% [5] - Key stocks in focus included: - Robot concept stocks like Beiwai Technology and Zhongma Transmission [5] - Military sector stocks such as Great Wall Military Industry and Aerospace Science and Technology [5] - Local stocks from Xinjiang like Hongtong Gas [5] - Media stocks like Jishi Media and consumer electronics stocks like Furi Electronics [5]

板块方面，有色金属、PEEK材料、CPO、光刻机等板块涨幅居前，煤炭、银行、港口、物流等板块跌 幅居前。 | 1 | 881333 元器件 | | 6.90 | 1633.66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 玻璃玻纤 881094 | | 6.15 | 898.89 | | 3 | 通信设备 881338 | | 6.05 | 1995.86 | | 4 | 地面兵装 881287 | | 6.00 | 1766.10 | | 5 | 880880 近期强势 | | 5.30 | 240.01 | | б | 880793 基金减仓 | | 4.54 | 1390.21 | | 7 | 880877 户数减少 | | 4.36 | 1836.14 | | 8 | 881326 消费电子 | | 4.09 | 1553.19 | | 1 | 881389 地方性银行 | | -1.33 | 1476.38 | | 2 | 880875 中小银行 | | -1.26 | 1473.63 | | 3 | 焦炭加工 881005 | | -1.09 | 493.36 ...