Core Insights - The overall magnesium price increased in January 2026, with magnesium ingot (1) averaging 18,127.50 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24% [1] - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 0.75, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries [2] - The magnesium alloy sector showed resilience with a 4.51% year-on-year increase in exports, despite an overall decline in magnesium product exports [2] Price Tracking - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 yuan/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month [1] - The magnesium market supply was relatively balanced, with stable prices supported by supply and steady demand from essential needs, leading to a positive market outlook [1] Industry Dynamics - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, significantly reducing weight and achieving new breakthroughs in aerospace applications [3] - A strategic cooperation was established between Bole Intelligent and Anhui Liheng for the supply of 37 large magnesium alloy semi-solid injection molding machines, indicating rapid expansion into large integrated structural components for electric vehicles [3] - Three key magnesium industry standards will be implemented starting February 1, 2026, marking a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance in the magnesium smelting industry [4] Important Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasted a net loss of 10-20 million yuan for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [6] - Yian Technology projected a net loss of 13-18 million yuan for 2025, attributed to increased investments in new sectors and currency appreciation affecting export profits [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies with full industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry are recommended for attention [7] - Companies with high magnesium alloy business ratios and strong elasticity like Xingyuan Zhuomei are also highlighted [7] - Equipment manufacturers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component enterprises, such as Yizhiming, are suggested for consideration [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.18% at the close of trading [1] - Over 2,700 stocks in the market saw gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1] Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector showed strong performance, with companies like Siyi Electric and Sifang Co. reaching new highs, and stocks such as Wangbian Electric and Shun Sodium Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with Xianglu Tungsten Industry achieving three consecutive daily limits in five days, and Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry securing two consecutive daily limits [2] - The CPO concept also gained momentum, with Tianfu Communication rising over 10% to set a new historical high [2] - The gas turbine sector saw a surge, with companies like Yingliu Co. and Changbao Co. hitting the daily limit [3] Declines - The film and cinema sector faced significant declines, with companies such as Huanrui Century, Hengdian Film, and Bona Film all hitting the daily limit down [4] Individual Stock Highlights - Zhongji Xuchuang had a trading volume exceeding 10.8 billion yuan, leading the market, while Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingwei Ke also had high trading volumes [5] - Notable stock performances included: - Tianfu Communication: +11.61% to 322.00 yuan [5] - Yingwei Ke: +10.00% to 109.45 yuan [5] - Zhongji Xuchuang: -0.17% to 530.99 yuan [5] - Guangxian Media: -10.80% to 23.96 yuan [5]

Summary of CMOC Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Ticker**: 603993.SS / 3993.HK - **Industry**: Non-ferrous metals, primarily mining and processing - **Key Assets**: Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) and Kisanfu Mine (KFM) in DR Congo, leading producer of tungsten, cobalt, niobium, molybdenum, and a major copper producer Key Financial Updates - **Target Price Revision**: - H-share target price raised to HK$28.3 from HK$20.6 - A-share target price raised to Rmb25.5 from Rmb19.0 - Target price implies 16.2x PE for H-share and 16.3x PE for A-share based on DCF valuation [1][5][32] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Revised net profit estimates for 2025/26/27E increased by 3.8%/34.2%/17.5% to Rmb20.5bn/33.9bn/31.8bn, respectively [1][4][9] - **Earnings Breakdown**: - Expected EBIT from TFM+KFM at Rmb47.2bn in 2026E, covering 82% of total EBIT - Contributions from other segments: Moly and Tungsten (8%), Brazil gold assets (6%), Niobium and Phosphate (3%) [3] Brazil Gold Assets Acquisition - **Acquisition Details**: Completed in January 2026, expected to produce 7.1 tons of gold in 2026E - **Financial Impact**: Anticipated contribution of Rmb2.4bn to net profit, accounting for 7% of total net profit based on a gold price forecast of US$4,600/oz [2][4] Market and Price Sensitivity - **Copper and Cobalt Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit sensitivity analysis indicates significant impact from fluctuations in copper and cobalt prices [10] - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit also sensitive to changes in gold prices, with a base case at US$4,600/oz [12] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Maintained as "Buy" due to positive business fundamentals, including expected output increases from TFM and KFM expansion projects and bullish medium-term copper price outlook driven by renewable energy demand [31][35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China - Weaker-than-expected real estate investment affecting copper demand - Acceleration of global mine supply could negatively impact prices [33][37] Conclusion - CMOC is positioned for growth with revised profit forecasts and strategic acquisitions, while maintaining a positive outlook on copper prices and operational expansions. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market risks that could affect performance.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on February 9, 2026 [1][3][4] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 99,625, LME price is 12,720, with a ratio of 7.90; March price in China is 100,320, LME price is 12,791, ratio 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.87, profit is - 1123.62; spot export profit is - 689.98 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 24,570, LME price is 3,264, ratio 7.53; March price in China is 24,490, LME price is 3,286, ratio 5.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.28, profit is - 2443.91 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 23,140, LME price is 2,994, ratio 7.73; March price in China is 23,390, LME price is 3,017, ratio 7.75. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.35, profit is - 1869.88 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 129,800, LME price is 16,615, ratio 7.81. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.02, profit is - 2777.23 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16,375, LME price is 1,898, ratio 8.64; March price in China is 16,580, LME price is 1,949, ratio 12.61. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.54, profit is 189.67 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 580, March - spot month spread is - 360, April - spot month spread is - 240, May - spot month spread is - 190; theoretical spreads are 605, 1109, 1621, 2134 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Sub - month - spot month spread is 55, March - spot month spread is 95, April - spot month spread is 130, May - spot month spread is 135; theoretical spreads are 225, 356, 487, 618 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 25, March - spot month spread is 50, April - spot month spread is 100, May - spot month spread is 150; theoretical spreads are 228, 356, 485, 614 respectively [4] - **Lead**: Sub - month - spot month spread is 10, March - spot month spread is 80, April - spot month spread is 145, May - spot month spread is 200; theoretical spreads are 208, 311, 415, 518 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 2300, March - spot month spread is - 2060, April - spot month spread is - 1810, May - spot month spread is - 1740 [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is - 2420, theoretical spread is 7371 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Current month contract - spot spread is 1115, sub - month contract - spot spread is 535; theoretical spreads are 390, 855 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Current month contract - spot spread is - 175, sub - month contract - spot spread is - 120; theoretical spreads are 91, 233 (also mentioned 141, 275) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: Current month contract - spot spread is 125, sub - month contract - spot spread is 135; theoretical spreads are 123, 233 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.10, 4.29, 6.05, 0.96, 1.41, 0.68 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.88, 4.21, 6.63, 0.92, 1.57, 0.59 respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financing balance of A-shares has been declining, with a latest figure of 26,640.67 billion yuan as of February 5, indicating a net repayment trend in financing funds totaling 42.915 billion yuan for the week [1] Industry Summary - The electronic sector led the net repayment of financing, amounting to 10.55 billion yuan [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net repayment of 8.421 billion yuan [1] - The communication, banking, and food & beverage sectors also experienced net repayments exceeding 2 billion yuan each [1] Company Summary - The construction and decoration sector saw net purchases of financing, totaling 319 million yuan [1] - The comprehensive sector recorded net purchases of 80.9149 million yuan [1] - A total of 58 stocks had net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top five being Zhongji Xuchuang, SMIC, Jiejia Weichuang, China Satellite, and Hengtong Optic-Electric, each with net purchases over 400 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a one-hour delay in opening due to a technical fault, adding uncertainty to an already volatile global metal market [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - The global metal market is facing extreme volatility driven by multiple factors, including U.S. military threats against Iran, renewed tariff threats from the White House, and a weakening dollar boosting demand for physical assets [2] - Copper prices surged by 11% in a single day, reaching a historical high of $14,500 per ton, before falling nearly 4% to $13,239 per ton after trading resumed [2] Group 2: Technical Issues - The LME stated that the delay was a precautionary measure after discovering a potential issue with a specific component during routine checks [1] - The incident has raised concerns about the reliability of the LME's trading systems, especially following previous disruptions in the market [5] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Citigroup analysts noted that while copper prices may rise in the short term, fundamental demand could pose challenges, with potential resistance to soaring prices due to increased scrap supply and demand destruction [4] - Market participants expressed that current expectations are overly uniform and adjustments are needed, leading to a preference for risk management and reduced participation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance with over 2800 stocks declining, indicating a phase of high-level fluctuations and diverging expectations in the short term [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight increase, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.05%, and the STAR Market 50 Index dropped by 1.52% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached approximately 2.03 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as semiconductors, brokerage, pharmaceuticals, and military industries are showing declines, while media, real estate, oil, non-ferrous metals, liquor, insurance, and banking sectors are experiencing gains [1] - AI application concepts and rare earth concepts are becoming more active in the market [1] Investment Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, the market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and game-playing before the holiday, with a focus on performance-driven stocks [1] - There is an anticipation for policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and curbing "involution" in industries, which may provide a temporary boost to cyclical stocks [1] - However, caution is advised regarding the impact of short-term regulatory easing on the incremental marginal weakening of ETF and leveraged funds in the market [1]

Group 1 - In Q4 2025, the major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index declining by 0.01% [5] - The convertible bond market experienced a high-level fluctuation, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by 1.32%, but overall performance was weaker compared to Q3 [5] - The conversion premium rate rose from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% by December 31 [5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that corporate loans acted as a stabilizing force, with technology sectors maintaining double-digit growth, while real estate loans continued to decline [5] - Mortgage lending remains under pressure, and consumer loan growth is relatively slow, indicating a challenging retail loan demand environment [5] - Expectations for 2026 suggest continued corporate loan dominance with retail loans under pressure, influenced by factors such as project releases and fiscal subsidies for small and micro enterprises [5] Group 3 - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 8.4% over the week, indicating a positive trend in the new energy vehicle materials sector [6] - Prices for other materials such as cobalt and silicon carbide showed mixed trends, with cobalt prices declining while silicon carbide prices increased [6] Group 4 - China National Petroleum Corporation's 2026 work meeting emphasized the company's role in energy supply and its commitment to building a strong energy nation [7] - The meeting highlighted strategic goals and key tasks for the current and future periods, focusing on enhancing energy security and supporting national development [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [1][2] - As of January 28, the spot gold price surpassed $5200 per ounce, with major gold jewelry brands in China quoting prices above 1600 yuan per gram [1] - The global official gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [1] Group 2 - In the copper market, Zambia's copper production is expected to grow by 8% to 890,346 tons by 2025, although it falls short of the 1 million tons target [2] - The London Metal Exchange copper price fell below $13,000, but long-term demand is supported by investments in AI data centers and China's State Grid [2] - The silver market has seen a year-to-date increase of over 55%, with a single-day jump of 8% on January 27 [2] Group 3 - The Precious Metals ETF (516650) closely tracks a series of sub-indices, selecting 50 large, liquid listed companies from related sectors, with top holdings including Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing typical index fluctuations and structural differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.27% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.24%, while the ChiNext Index slightly decreased by 0.17% [1] - The market's flat index performance contrasts sharply with the significant volatility in industry sectors, indicating a shift towards niche opportunities and a multi-faceted market dynamic [1] Fund Flow Dynamics - The trading volume in both markets increased to 1.91 trillion yuan, showing strong willingness for new capital inflow, characterized by a "buy low, sell high" behavior [1] - Funds are flowing out of sectors with short-term gains, such as telecommunications (-1.79%) and electronics, and rapidly entering new hotspots like defense and military (+2.77%) and power equipment (+2.56%) [1] Key Focus Areas - The high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly defense and photovoltaic industries, are the main focus of the market, driven by multiple converging factors [1] - The strength of the military industry is underpinned by long-term expectations for accelerated development in high-end equipment and aerospace during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with commercial space initiatives providing tangible catalysts [2] Technological Narratives - The expansion of technological narratives is creating new valuation spaces, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where concepts like "space photovoltaics" are capturing market imagination [2] - Discussions around advanced photovoltaic technologies required for space environments are effectively outlining potential new growth curves for the industry [2] Global Macro Trends - The rise in the non-ferrous metals sector reflects a long-term demand logic driven by new energy vehicles and storage, alongside a bet on global inflation resilience and rising resource prices [3] - The recent highs in lithium carbonate futures and strengthening international gold prices provide short-term price support for this sector [3] Future Market Outlook - The keyword "structural" will be crucial for understanding market trends in the near future, with a macro backdrop of adequate monetary policy and ample market liquidity suggesting limited systemic risk [3] - However, the increasing speed of sector rotation may complicate investment strategies, making it essential to focus on core sectors with strong industrial trends while being aware of potential short-term adjustments in leading technology growth sectors [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "focusing on main lines while maintaining balanced allocations," keeping a close watch on sectors like defense, AI chip localization, and new energy technology innovations [4] - In periods of volatility in growth sectors, low-valuation and high-dividend sectors such as banking and coal may present defensive value [4]