Group 1 - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, particularly the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.84% [2][3] - Concerns about the redemption of "fixed income +" funds and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations are contributing to market anxiety [2][4] - The recent debt extension issues faced by Vanke have negatively impacted market sentiment, primarily affecting credit bonds but also influencing interest rate bonds due to redemption pressures [2][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the bond market's incremental positive factors are limited, and the direction of monetary policy remains unclear, leading to weak overall market sentiment [4][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been conducting net withdrawals in the open market, but overall liquidity remains ample, with a recent net injection of 564 billion yuan [4][5] - Expectations for interest rate cuts are diminishing, with analysts indicating that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, it could provide more room for domestic rate cuts [6][7] Group 3 - The adjustment of banks' deposit structures, particularly the removal of 5-year fixed deposit products, may signal a shortening of the duration of bank liabilities, impacting their bond holding behavior [7][8] - The PBOC's emphasis on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is seen as a key reference for the trend of long-term bond yields [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with increased difficulty in investment compared to last year, influenced by various factors including policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets saw gains, with government bond futures rising across the board [2][3]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.6 basis points to 1.777% [2][3]. - The bond market has shown a wide fluctuation in yields this year, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating nearly 15 basis points since its issuance [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment returns from banks have significantly weakened year-on-year, impacting their profitability [1][7]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations and the resumption of value-added tax on bond interest income are causing institutions to adjust their strategies [7][9]. - The bond market's "dull knife cutting meat" trend has led to increased pressure on investors, with many institutions facing challenges in navigating the current market environment [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for the bond market, noting that while trading enthusiasm may slightly recover, overall trading space remains limited [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [1][6]. - There is a consensus that even if the fundamental data remains poor in the fourth quarter, the continued loose monetary policy may not significantly lower bond yields [5][6].