半导体设备销售额持续增长，AI 需求推动后道设备市场回升。AI 芯片在堆叠设计、异构集成和散热管 理等方面的技术突破，对测试设备的精度、效率和兼容性提出新要求，芯片巨头积极扩充测试设备产 能。此外，随着芯片设计复杂度的提升，单芯片测试时间延长，测试产能趋于紧张，测试设备市场呈 现"量价齐升"的需求特征，市场规模扩大。根据SEMI，2025 年半导体测试设备销售额有望达到112 亿 美元，同比增长48.1%，封装与组装设备销售额有望达到64 亿美元，同比增长19.6%。日本测试龙头公 司爱德万测试（Advantest）2025 年7-9 月实现营收2630 亿日元，同比增长38%，实现净利润796 亿日 元，同比增长75%。 25 年7-9 月，Advantest 核心的测试系统业务销售额增长42%至2374 亿日元，其中SoC 测试设备销售额 达1737 亿日元。Advantest 将2025 财年（2025 年4月-2026 年 3 月）收入预测从8350 亿日元上调至9500 亿日元，利润目标从2215 亿日元上调至2750 亿日元。长川科技作为国产后道设备的头部企业，有望受 益于产业趋势。 25 年前三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sales continue to grow, driven by AI demand, leading to a recovery in the backend equipment market. The market for semiconductor testing equipment is expected to reach $11.2 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 48.1% [1]. - The company achieved revenue of 3.779 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49.05%, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, up 142.14% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end applications and has made significant progress in domestic product performance, which is expected to drive market share growth through import substitution [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.250 billion yuan from testing machines and 709 million yuan from sorting machines, representing year-on-year growth of 34.30% and 50.36%, respectively [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 54.48%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 8.05 percentage points to 22.96% [2]. - The company has optimized its expense management, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 1.16, 0.92, and 7.72 percentage points, respectively [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to continue expanding in the high-end market, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.068 billion yuan and 1.418 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 46% and 43% [3]. - The report also introduces a new net profit forecast for 2027 at 1.722 billion yuan [3].

Group 1 - The main point of the news is that there has been a significant outflow of funds from the stock market, with a net outflow of 701.87 billion yuan on September 26, 2023, particularly affecting the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [1] - Among the 10 sectors, the oil and petrochemical industry saw the highest increase of 1.17%, while the computer industry experienced the largest decline of 3.26% [1] - Five sectors received net inflows from major funds, with the automotive sector leading at 11.96 million yuan, followed by agriculture, beauty care, and food and beverage sectors, each with inflows exceeding 10 million yuan [1] Group 2 - In the automotive parts sector, Wanxiang Qianchao saw a net inflow of 5.7 billion yuan, marking a new high since May 16, 2025 [2] - Aerospace stocks like Chengfei Integration also attracted significant inflows, with 5.13 billion yuan, as some military stocks rebounded from low levels [2] - Tianji shares in the chemical sector experienced a net inflow of 4.81 billion yuan, with institutional investors contributing significantly to the buying [2] Group 3 - Over 200 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with leading stocks like Luxshare Precision and Shenghong Technology seeing outflows over 21 billion yuan [3] - Popular stocks such as Inspur Information, Dongshan Precision, and CATL also faced substantial outflows, each exceeding 13 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - In the last trading session, 16 stocks saw net inflows exceeding 40 million yuan, with Changchuan Technology leading at 2.3 billion yuan [6] - E-commerce concept stock Yaowang Technology experienced a net inflow of 1.73 billion yuan in the tail end of trading [7] Group 5 - Various ETFs tracked different sectors, with the Food and Beverage ETF seeing a net outflow of 198.54 million yuan despite an increase in shares [11] - The Gaming ETF had a net outflow of 220 million yuan, while the Semiconductor ETF experienced a net outflow of 160 million yuan [11][12]

Core Insights - The AI chip industry has seen a continuous increase in prosperity since 2025, with significant growth in the semiconductor equipment sector driven by AI-related investments [1] - Global semiconductor equipment company revenues are projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in 2025, with a 24% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The demand for high-performance SoC testing machines and storage testing machines has surged due to the complexity of chip design and manufacturing [1] Industry Overview - The overseas semiconductor equipment market has experienced a 40% year-on-year growth, particularly in testing and packaging equipment [1] - In contrast, the Chinese market saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year in H1 2025, although the domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate increased by 6 percentage points to 21% [1] Company Performance - Among semiconductor equipment manufacturers, notable revenue growth was observed in several companies, with North Huachuang achieving a revenue of 16.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.51% [2] - The highest net profit growth was recorded by Weidao Nano at 348.95%, followed by Changchuan Technology at 98.73% [3] - Changchuan Technology's growth is attributed to an expanded product range and a shift from mid-to-low-end to mid-to-high-end markets [3] Financial Metrics - Changchuan Technology's revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.167 billion yuan, with a 41.80% increase, driven by a 34.30% rise in testing machine revenue [4] - The company's gross margin has remained stable between 54% and 56%, with a reported gross margin of 54.93% in H1 2025 [4] - R&D investment for Changchuan Technology was 577 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a 35.38% increase and accounting for 26.65% of revenue [4] Market Outlook - The demand for AI and HBM technologies is expected to continue driving industry growth, particularly in the testing equipment sector [4] - Companies are advised to monitor inventory and order status in the short term while focusing on advancements in high-end equipment for SoC and storage testing in the long term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 427 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.73%, indicating strong growth driven by the expansion of mid-to-high-end products [1] Investment Highlights - The company maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 56.75 yuan per share, supported by the expected ramp-up of CIS testing machines and storage testing machines in 2025-2026, leading to upward adjustments in EPS forecasts for 2025-2027, with EPS projected at 1.62, 2.08, and 2.64 yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 122.98%, 28.32%, and 26.82% [2] - The company focuses on integrated circuit testing equipment, expanding its product line to include digital testing equipment and various high-end applications, resulting in a revenue of 2.167 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.80% [2][3] - The company’s R&D investment for the first half of 2025 reached 577 million yuan, accounting for 26.65% of revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [3] Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the testing machine segment generated revenue of 1.250 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.30%, while the sorting machine segment achieved revenue of 709 million yuan, up 50.36% [3] - The company has developed new products in the AOI measurement system field, including the NanoX-6000 and NanoX-8000 series, which cater to critical measurement needs in the semiconductor and PCB sectors, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous high growth in performance, with a significant contribution from testing equipment, achieving a revenue of 3.642 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 105% [7] - The company is expected to become a leader in domestic testing equipment, with a focus on high-end applications and a clear product line and market layout [7] - The company has increased its R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 967 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.642 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 458.43 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 915% [7] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 54.9%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 9.4 percentage points to 12.8% [7] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 626 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 184% [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been raised to 849 million yuan for 2025 and 1.121 billion yuan for 2026, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.438 billion yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 31, 24, and 18 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential in the high-end testing machine sector [7]