Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties emphasizes that a talented team is crucial for implementing its HKD 100 billion investment plan, with recent management changes aimed at enhancing its retail business in mainland China [1][9]. Group 1: Management Changes - Swire Properties has announced a series of internal appointments, promoting executives with extensive experience in the mainland market, particularly in the management teams of its Taikoo Li projects in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [1]. - Yu Guoan, previously in charge of Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, has been appointed as General Manager of Retail Business (New Projects) for mainland China [1][5]. - Gu Yuzhen, General Manager of Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li, has been appointed as General Manager of Retail Business (Shanghai Pudong) [1][5]. - Wu Yushan, General Manager of Chengdu Taikoo Li, has been promoted to General Manager of Retail Business for mainland China, while continuing to lead Chengdu Taikoo Li [1][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recent management changes are closely linked to Swire Properties' HKD 100 billion investment plan, with approximately HKD 50 billion allocated to the mainland market [9]. - The company aims to double its total floor area in mainland China by 2032, reflecting its long-term commitment to the market [9]. - Retail business is a key focus area for Swire Properties, with several new or expanded retail projects planned [9]. Group 3: Retail Performance - In 2024, retail business accounted for 51.2% of Swire Properties' total revenue, marking a 2.5 percentage point increase from 2023 [9]. - Rental income from retail properties in mainland China rose by 7% to HKD 4.489 billion, with an average foot traffic increase of about 5% [10]. - The rental income for Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li increased by 12%, reaching a historical high since its opening, while Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li saw a 7% growth [10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the mainland retail market, anticipating a steady growth in retail sales driven by domestic demand and ongoing renovations of its shopping centers [10]. - The mainland is expected to become one of the largest luxury goods markets globally, supported by a continuous increase in luxury sales [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach HKD 14,428 million in 2024, with a slight decline of 2.1% year-on-year, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% in the subsequent years [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of HKD 766 million in 2024 to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 449.3% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.13 HKD in 2024 to 0.46 HKD in 2025, indicating a positive turnaround [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendations - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flows through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% per year supports the investment thesis [8].