Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains its earnings forecast for Swire Properties (01972) and continues to rate it as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 23.8, reflecting a 30% discount to NAV, a 4.8% dividend yield for 2025, and a 10% upside potential [1] - The company is trading at a 36% discount to NAV and offers dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - The company adopts a dividend policy of single-digit annual growth in DPS, and it is suggested to monitor the progress of property sales collections and asset disposals to support dividend payouts [1] Group 2 - Retail sales in mainland luxury shopping centers have shown a significant year-on-year increase, with notable projects like Shanghai Xinyi Swire and Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li recording retail sales growth of 42%, 8%, and 6% respectively for the first three quarters [2] - The company is benefiting as a consolidator in the mainland luxury market, with the effects of luxury brand store expansions and renovations becoming increasingly evident [2] - New projects such as Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li, Sanya Taikoo Li, and Xi'an Taikoo Li are under construction and are expected to open in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] Group 3 - The rental rate for office buildings in Hong Kong remains resilient, with the company's office portfolio maintaining a high occupancy rate of 92% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [3] - The demand for expansion from key tenants, such as FWD Hong Kong leasing 330,000 square feet in Taikoo Place for a 10-year lease, supports this stable occupancy rate [3] - Average rental adjustments for the company's office buildings in the first three quarters of 2025 have decreased by 13% to 15%, as the company prioritizes maintaining occupancy rates and long-term tenant relationships [3] Group 4 - Retail sales in Hong Kong's luxury and mass-market properties have shown a quarterly recovery, with Taikoo Place and Taikoo Shing recording year-on-year sales growth of 3.6% and 3.0% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [4] - This performance outperforms the overall Hong Kong retail sector, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [4] - The recovery is attributed to the low base effect and the company's active marketing efforts to attract a diverse and younger customer base [4]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties reported a revenue of HKD 87.2 billion for the first half of 2025, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, while the profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of HKD 12 billion, contrasting with pre-pandemic performance [2][4]. Retail Performance - The retail sales across Swire Properties' nine major malls in Hong Kong and mainland China have rebounded, with most locations nearing or exceeding 2019 levels, indicating the resilience of high-end retail [2][4]. - Specific retail sales performance for key properties shows significant recovery, with notable increases in sales for properties like Shanghai Xinyi Taikoo Hui and Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, while Guangzhou Taikoo Hui experienced a decline [3][9][13]. Financial Metrics - The rental income from retail properties in mainland China rose by 2% to HKD 22.72 billion, with retail sales up by 1%, outperforming the market average and exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 70% [8]. - In Hong Kong, rental income from retail properties fell by 2% to HKD 11.69 billion, despite maintaining full occupancy, reflecting a decline in turnover-based rents [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - Swire Properties is shifting focus from traditional rental income to innovative asset management and operational strategies, including the expansion of its retail offerings and enhancing tenant mix to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [4][16]. - The company is also pursuing new projects, such as the Guangzhou Cultural Center acquisition, to expand its commercial footprint and enhance the overall retail experience [16]. Market Trends - The retail landscape in Hong Kong is undergoing structural changes due to increased competition from online shopping and cross-border consumption, prompting Swire Properties to adapt its strategies accordingly [10][12]. - The company is exploring opportunities for diversification in its retail offerings, including introducing new brands and enhancing experiential retail to attract a broader customer base [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong retail performance in its shopping centers, with most locations showing year-on-year growth in retail sales for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust recovery in the retail sector [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Performance - Shanghai Xinyi Taikoo Hui saw a retail sales increase of 13.5% year-on-year, while Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li grew by 6.8% [1]. - Chengdu Taikoo Li and Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li reported retail sales growth of 4% and 0.2% respectively, with Beijing Yiti Port remaining flat and Guangzhou Taikoo Hui declining by 2.1%, a significant improvement from a 10.7% decline in 2024 [1]. - The overall trend indicates that major shopping centers are benefiting from the continued entry of luxury brands, which is expected to further enhance retail sales and rental income in the coming years [1]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Insights - Hong Kong shopping centers maintained full occupancy with a slight improvement in retail sales growth, contrasting with street shops affected by tourist spending [2]. - Taikoo Place, Taikoo City Centre, and Cityplaza reported retail sales growth of 1.4%, 2%, and a decline of 3.3% respectively, with a consistent 100% occupancy rate for six consecutive quarters [2]. - The Hong Kong office market remains under pressure due to historical rent reductions, with new supply continuing to impact rental rates, although new lease rates have not seen significant declines [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company’s assets are primarily located in prime shopping districts, providing a strong competitive advantage and operational capabilities that enhance project performance [2]. - Projected net profit growth for the company is estimated at 449%, 54%, and 37% for 2025 to 2027, with dividends expected to grow at 5% annually [2]. - The current estimated net present value per share is HKD 23.92, with a projected dividend yield of 5.6% for 2025, maintaining a "recommended" rating [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the operational performance of Swire Properties for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing strong occupancy rates across its retail properties in mainland China [1] Group 2 - In Beijing, the occupancy rate of Taikoo Li Sanlitun reached 99%, up from 98% in the same period last year [1] - Guangzhou Taikoo Hui maintained a 100% occupancy rate, consistent with the previous year [1] - Beijing Yintai Center achieved a 100% occupancy rate, an increase from 98% year-on-year [1] - Chengdu Taikoo Li reported a 97% occupancy rate, up from 96% year-on-year [1] - Shanghai Xingye Taikoo Hui's occupancy rate was 94%, an increase from 93% year-on-year [1] - Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li maintained a stable occupancy rate of 98%, unchanged from the previous year [1] Group 3 - In terms of development, the total floor area of Beijing Taikoo Fang is 375,837 square meters, with completion expected to begin in mid-2026 [1] - Construction is currently underway for the above-ground, curtain wall, and electromechanical installation works [1] - Xi'an Taikoo Li and Sanya Taikoo Li are projected to be completed starting in 2027, with relevant construction also in progress [1]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties emphasizes that a talented team is crucial for implementing its HKD 100 billion investment plan, with recent management changes aimed at enhancing its retail business in mainland China [1][9]. Group 1: Management Changes - Swire Properties has announced a series of internal appointments, promoting executives with extensive experience in the mainland market, particularly in the management teams of its Taikoo Li projects in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [1]. - Yu Guoan, previously in charge of Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, has been appointed as General Manager of Retail Business (New Projects) for mainland China [1][5]. - Gu Yuzhen, General Manager of Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li, has been appointed as General Manager of Retail Business (Shanghai Pudong) [1][5]. - Wu Yushan, General Manager of Chengdu Taikoo Li, has been promoted to General Manager of Retail Business for mainland China, while continuing to lead Chengdu Taikoo Li [1][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recent management changes are closely linked to Swire Properties' HKD 100 billion investment plan, with approximately HKD 50 billion allocated to the mainland market [9]. - The company aims to double its total floor area in mainland China by 2032, reflecting its long-term commitment to the market [9]. - Retail business is a key focus area for Swire Properties, with several new or expanded retail projects planned [9]. Group 3: Retail Performance - In 2024, retail business accounted for 51.2% of Swire Properties' total revenue, marking a 2.5 percentage point increase from 2023 [9]. - Rental income from retail properties in mainland China rose by 7% to HKD 4.489 billion, with an average foot traffic increase of about 5% [10]. - The rental income for Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li increased by 12%, reaching a historical high since its opening, while Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li saw a 7% growth [10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the mainland retail market, anticipating a steady growth in retail sales driven by domestic demand and ongoing renovations of its shopping centers [10]. - The mainland is expected to become one of the largest luxury goods markets globally, supported by a continuous increase in luxury sales [10].

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported Q1 retail sales growth in its mainland shopping centers, with Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui, Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li showing increases of 10.1%, 6%, and 1.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - Retail sales in Chengdu Taikoo Li, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui, and Beijing Yintai Center declined by 2.9%, 2.5%, and 0.4% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to 2024 [1] - The improvement in retail sales is attributed to the introduction of more luxury brands following renovations completed at the beginning of 2025, particularly benefiting Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Hong Kong shopping centers maintained full occupancy with a slight improvement in retail sales growth, with Taikoo City Centre, Taikoo Place, and Citygate Outlets showing year-on-year growth rates of +2.9%, -5%, and -5.8% respectively [2] - The overall rental rate for Hong Kong office buildings remained under pressure due to market oversupply, with a Q1 occupancy rate of 89%, consistent with the end of 2024 [2] - In mainland office projects, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui and Beijing Yintai Center saw occupancy rates increase by 1 percentage point to 91% and 84% respectively, while Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui's rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 94% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is characterized as a commercial real estate firm that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive edge [3] - Q1 performance in mainland shopping centers aligns with expectations, driven by the company's strong leasing and renovation capabilities [3] - Projected net profit growth for the company is 449%, 54%, and 37% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a consistent annual dividend growth of 5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach HKD 14,428 million in 2024, with a slight decline of 2.1% year-on-year, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% in the subsequent years [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of HKD 766 million in 2024 to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 449.3% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.13 HKD in 2024 to 0.46 HKD in 2025, indicating a positive turnaround [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendations - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flows through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% per year supports the investment thesis [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 14,428 million, HKD 14,616 million, HKD 14,995 million, and HKD 18,638 million respectively, with growth rates of -2.1%, 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -HKD 766 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, HKD 4,132 million in 2026, and HKD 5,671 million in 2027, with growth rates of -129.0%, 449.3%, 54.4%, and 37.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -HKD 0.13 in 2024, HKD 0.46 in 2025, HKD 0.72 in 2026, and HKD 0.98 in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendation - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% annually supports the investment thesis [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Swire Properties (01972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.52, compared to the current price of HKD 15.52 [2][7]. Core Insights - Swire Properties is recognized as a high-end commercial real estate developer, with property investments contributing an average of 117% to the shareholders' recurring net profit. The company has a stable dividend policy, aiming to distribute approximately 50% of its recurring profit as dividends, with annual growth in dividends expected in the mid-single digits [7][11]. - The company's revenue and net profit are primarily derived from rental income from property investments, which accounted for an average of 88% of total revenue from 2018 to 2024. Despite a projected loss in net profit for 2024 due to fair value fluctuations, the company's underlying profitability remains intact [15][16]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Swire's mainland China shopping centers, which are expected to contribute significantly to rental income, with a projected 50% growth in rental income from these centers in the coming years [36][37]. Summary by Sections 1. High-End Commercial Real Estate Developer - Swire Properties has established a strong presence in high-end commercial real estate, with significant projects in Hong Kong and mainland China, including landmark shopping centers like Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li and Guangzhou Taikoo Hui [15][31]. - The company has a robust rental income model, with property investments contributing approximately 93% of total revenue in 2024 [17][19]. 2. Rental Income Contribution - Rental income is the primary driver of the company's revenue, with a stable contribution to net profit. The rental income from mainland shopping centers is expected to grow significantly, becoming a major pillar of the company's revenue [20][21]. - The report indicates that the rental income from mainland shopping centers is projected to reach HKD 52.25 billion in 2024, accounting for 35% of total rental income [21][36]. 3. Investment Strategy and Future Growth - Swire Properties has announced a HKD 100 billion investment plan, with a focus on expanding its presence in mainland China and enhancing the competitiveness of existing projects [28][36]. - The company is set to launch several new projects in the coming years, which are expected to drive rental income growth and further solidify its market position [36][37]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company's shopping centers benefit from prime locations and a strong brand portfolio, which provide a competitive edge in attracting high-end retailers and maintaining high occupancy rates [32][42]. - Swire Properties has a stable management team and a concentrated ownership structure, with Swire Group holding 82% of the shares, ensuring strategic continuity and long-term planning [33][34].