制图：洪秋亮 西安商业新战事，正在中轴线上演。 "顶流"西安赛格国际购物中心人气不减，去年销售额破125亿元；奢牌扎堆的西安SKP持续"硬控"西北富豪，而1.5公里外的西安太古里，正在加紧建设 中；超级地标西安万象城横空出世…… 从十三朝古都到"网红城市"，西安不仅有强劲的文旅势能，亦是消费增长潜力巨大、高能商业地产玩家争相入局的西北商业热土。 形成时间可追溯至唐代、核心部分约20公里长的西安中轴线，浓缩了这座城市的千年变迁史、以及城市商业的盛衰之变。 据赢商研究中心统计，目前西安中轴线沿线商圈已开业商业项目40个，总体量376万㎡，汇聚高能级商场，为西安政府重点发展的商业中心地带。 聚光灯下的西安中轴线商业，竞争格局几何？各家生存之道是什么？未来的C位在哪儿？ 赢商研究中心通过多方调研，以及采访多位西安商业资深研究专家，全面剖析西安中轴线商业格局，力求解开商业的共性运营密码。 01. 西安中轴线商业底色 据笔者向多位西安商业资深研究专家采访，业内一致认为西安中轴线商业始于城墙内、以钟楼商圈为起点，随后依次向南、向北延伸，如今呈现出多点开 花格局。 以时间轴看，西安中轴线沿线的现代商业发展，可分为三个阶段： ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Swire Properties in 1H25 met market expectations, with a revenue increase of 20% year-on-year to HKD 8.72 billion, while the recurring net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4% to HKD 3.42 billion, but increased by 15% to HKD 4.42 billion when considering asset disposal gains [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 rose by 20% to HKD 8.72 billion - Recurring net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4% to HKD 3.42 billion - Basic profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15% to HKD 4.42 billion, aligning with market expectations - Interim dividend declared at HKD 0.35 per share, a 3% increase year-on-year, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 1.66% [1] Operational Highlights - Retail sales in mainland shopping centers improved, with a 1% year-on-year increase in 1H25, compared to a decline of 7% in 1H24 - Notable retail sales growth in Shanghai Taikoo Hui (+14%) and Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li (+7%) - Rental income from mainland shopping centers increased by 2% to HKD 2.27 billion in 1H25 - Hong Kong office rental income decreased by 5% to HKD 2.46 billion, with an occupancy rate of 88% [1][2] Asset Disposal and Financial Strategy - The company recorded asset disposal gains of HKD 1 billion in 1H25, primarily from the Miami shopping center and adjacent land, with a total consideration of up to USD 760 million - The net debt ratio remained stable at 15.7% compared to the end of 2024 [2] Investment Plans - The company has a HKD 100 billion investment plan, with HKD 50 billion allocated to the mainland market, of which HKD 46 billion is already earmarked - Upcoming projects include the phased opening of Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li by the end of 2025, the opening of Sanya Taikoo Li in 2026, and the completion of Xi'an Taikoo Li in 2027 [2] Shareholder Returns and Financial Safety - The company reiterated its guidance for a mid-single-digit annual growth in dividends, supported by asset disposals and residential sales - The company has confirmed or planned asset disposals for the second half of the year, including the Miami site and the sale of the 43rd floor of the Eastern Island Center [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged, with expected recurring net profit for 2025 and 2026 projected to decrease by 5% and increase by 17% to HKD 6.17 billion and HKD 7.20 billion, respectively [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of HKD 23.8 per share, implying a 30% target NAV discount and a 4.8% target dividend yield for 2025, indicating a 13% upside potential [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the operational performance of Swire Properties for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing strong occupancy rates across its retail properties in mainland China [1] Group 2 - In Beijing, the occupancy rate of Taikoo Li Sanlitun reached 99%, up from 98% in the same period last year [1] - Guangzhou Taikoo Hui maintained a 100% occupancy rate, consistent with the previous year [1] - Beijing Yintai Center achieved a 100% occupancy rate, an increase from 98% year-on-year [1] - Chengdu Taikoo Li reported a 97% occupancy rate, up from 96% year-on-year [1] - Shanghai Xingye Taikoo Hui's occupancy rate was 94%, an increase from 93% year-on-year [1] - Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li maintained a stable occupancy rate of 98%, unchanged from the previous year [1] Group 3 - In terms of development, the total floor area of Beijing Taikoo Fang is 375,837 square meters, with completion expected to begin in mid-2026 [1] - Construction is currently underway for the above-ground, curtain wall, and electromechanical installation works [1] - Xi'an Taikoo Li and Sanya Taikoo Li are projected to be completed starting in 2027, with relevant construction also in progress [1]

Group 1 - Chengdu Taikoo Li has successfully integrated traditional and modern elements, setting a new benchmark for high-quality urban renewal in mainland China [1] - The project has become a commercial landmark in Chengdu, attracting over 30 million visitors annually since its opening in 2015 [2] - Taikoo Properties has committed to investing HKD 50 billion in mainland China, achieving 92% of this target to date [1][4] Group 2 - The project features a low-density shopping center and a hotel, preserving traditional Sichuan architectural styles while promoting community engagement [2] - Over 215 brands have opened new stores or undergone renovations in the past three years, including high-end brands like Cartier and Dior, enhancing luxury retail experiences in Southwest China [2] - Taikoo Properties has seen a 12% increase in rental income at its Sanlitun Taikoo Li project, reaching a historical high, while overall foot traffic in mainland malls increased by 5% last year [3] Group 3 - The company is expanding its investment portfolio in mainland China, with projects in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Sanya [4] - Taikoo Properties has a long-term investment outlook for the mainland market, aiming to identify more investment opportunities [4] - The company maintains a cautious approach to the current market environment while continuing its investment plans [5]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties is actively investing in mainland China, having committed 92% of its HKD 500 billion investment plan, amounting to approximately HKD 460 billion, within three years [2] Group 1: Investment Progress - Swire Properties has made significant progress in its investment plans, with a focus on project implementation [2] - The first residential project in mainland China, located in Shanghai's Lujiazui, is set to launch sales in 2024, with the first batch of 50 units achieving a subscription rate of 250% [2] - The company is also developing a mixed-use complex in Qiantan, which includes four residential buildings [2] Group 2: New Brand Introduction - Swire Properties is introducing a new brand, Taikoo Place, in the mainland market, with a significant investment in the Beijing Taikoo Place project, which will be renamed in November 2024 [2][3] - The project is the largest single investment by Swire Properties in mainland China, primarily focused on office space [3] Group 3: Future Projects and Expansion - In Guangzhou, Swire Properties acquired a cultural center site for HKD 2.1 billion, planning to renovate it as part of the Guangzhou Taikoo Hui retail portfolio, expected to be completed by 2027 [3] - The Guangzhou Panyu Bay Taikoo Li project is set to begin trial operations by the end of this year, with full completion anticipated in mid-2027 [3] - Swire Properties is also developing commercial complexes in cities like Xi'an and Sanya, with the Xi'an Taikoo Li exhibition hall scheduled to open in 2025 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The company maintains a long-term optimistic view on the mainland market, particularly in retail, with expectations of steady sales growth into 2025 [3][4] - Despite some brands slowing their expansion, Swire Properties is experiencing overall rental income growth and a 5% increase in average foot traffic for its mainland projects in 2024 [3]