固定收益 | 固定收益定期 可转债周报 20250824 证券研究报告 临期转债"百态" 转债周度专题 截至 8 月 22 日，2025 年内共有 82 只转债退市，其中 20 只为到期退市， 6 只到期退市转债的实际到期兑付比例低于 1%，3 只到期兑付比例高于 90% （核建转债、好客转债、智能转债），其余到期兑付比例集中在 20%-60%。 年内已到期退市转债的促转股与到期兑付之路存在差异：中信转债发行金 额 400 亿元，但最终兑付比例不足 1%，其促转股之路较为丰富：第一，控 股股东率先将转债溢价转股。第二，正股阶段性"异动"，负溢价率转股。 2024 年 12 月开始，银行股持续上行，中信转债的转股价值明显高于到期 价值，叠加银行发行转债补充一级核心资本的目标导向，转债转股节奏加 快。民企转债多数（11/18）在存续期曾下修过转股价，如好客转债、合兴 转债在到期前半年左右均提议下修过转股价，但下修均未实现有效促转股。 截至 8 月 22 日，年内即将到期转债还有 14 只。规模较高的如金能转债、 浦发转债、海亮转债、烽火转债、鹰 19 转债、建工转债等。金能转债 8 月 12 日刚下修过转股价，公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of bank stocks has led to multiple bank convertible bonds triggering mandatory redemption clauses, resulting in a reduction of available convertible bonds in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds and Redemption - Qilu Bank announced that August 8 is the last trading day for Qilu convertible bonds, with mandatory redemption occurring on August 14 [1]. - This year, four bank convertible bonds have already been delisted due to triggering strong redemption clauses, with Qilu and Pudong Development Bank bonds set to exit the market soon [1][2]. - As of August 7, Qilu convertible bonds were trading at 123.69 yuan, with an unconverted balance of 453 million yuan, representing 5.67% of the total [2]. Group 2: Bank Performance and Market Trends - Qilu Bank reported a 5.76% year-on-year increase in operating income for the first half of 2025, totaling 6.782 billion yuan, and a 16.48% increase in net profit, amounting to 2.734 billion yuan [2]. - The banking sector has seen significant stock price increases, with the Shenwan first-level bank index rising over 14% this year, and several banks, including Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank, experiencing gains of nearly 40% and over 36%, respectively [2]. - The supply of bank convertible bonds is decreasing, which is changing market dynamics and prompting institutional investors to seek alternative assets to fill the gap left by reduced convertible bond allocations [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market is strengthening, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, leading to a rise in the convertible bond market, which is experiencing a wave of forced redemptions and delistings [1][2] - It is anticipated that the scale of the convertible bond market may gradually shrink to below 600 billion yuan in the second half of the year due to a lack of new issuance and increased forced redemptions [1][6] - The recent trend shows that over 50 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, with more than 80% exiting through forced redemption, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years [3][4] Group 2 - The recent tightening of refinancing policies has led to a prolonged review period for convertible bond issuances, resulting in a notable decline in new supply [5][8] - The banking sector is a major contributor to the decline in convertible bonds, with at least six bank bonds exiting the market this year, primarily through forced redemptions [6][7] - The total outstanding amount of convertible bonds has decreased from nearly 300 billion yuan to below 150 billion yuan, with the market share dropping from 40% to about 20% [7][8] Group 3 - The market for convertible bonds is expected to continue to shrink due to the scarcity of new issuances and the ongoing trend of forced redemptions, with estimates suggesting that the total market balance may fall below 600 billion yuan by year-end [6][8] - The performance of the convertible bond market is closely linked to the A-share market, with a strong correlation observed between market conditions and the exit of convertible bonds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in 2023, leading to a significant increase in bank convertible bonds, with many set to exit the market, raising questions about asset allocation for institutional investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Several bank convertible bonds, including Hangzhou Bank and South Bank, have completed their market conversion and delisting, with a total estimated reduction of around 100 billion yuan in bank convertible bonds this year [1][2]. - The strong redemption mechanism of convertible bonds is closely linked to the performance of the underlying bank stocks, which have been rising recently [1][2]. - The total outstanding convertible bonds as of July 8 was approximately 664.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 68.98 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with projections suggesting it may fall below 600 billion yuan by the end of the year [3][6]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Convertible bonds have become a key asset in the "fixed income plus" strategy for asset management products, with institutions increasingly favoring them due to their low volatility and high returns [3][4]. - The demand for bank convertible bonds remains high due to their strong credit quality and risk resistance, despite a slowdown in new issuances [3][4]. - Institutions are now seeking to diversify their asset allocation strategies, looking for alternative high-yielding base assets as the supply of convertible bonds decreases [5][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The shrinking supply of bank convertible bonds and the ongoing demand may lead to a situation where valuations become difficult to maintain, prompting institutions to explore other investment opportunities [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may create short-term trading opportunities in bank convertible bonds, despite their high valuations [6][7]. - The focus may shift towards convertible bond ETFs and other asset classes like REITs and thematic ETFs as institutions adapt to the changing market landscape [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant reduction in the number of available bonds, with only 9 remaining after several have been redeemed or matured, indicating a shrinking market size and potential changes in investment strategies [1][6]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Redemption - Qilu Bank's convertible bond has triggered a conditional redemption clause due to its stock price exceeding 130% of the conversion price for 15 out of 30 trading days, leading to an early redemption three and a half years before maturity [2]. - The total issuance of Qilu convertible bonds was 8 billion yuan, with a conversion price currently at 5.00 yuan per share, and 2.66 billion yuan worth of bonds converted into shares as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - Hangzhou Bank's convertible bond has also been redeemed, with a total conversion amount reaching 14.908 billion yuan, representing 99.39% of the total issuance [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The continuous rise in bank stock prices has led to a 17.7% increase in the China Securities Bank Index this year, with all 42 stocks in the sector showing positive performance [4]. - Five banks have seen stock price increases exceeding 30%, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading at a 41.69% increase [4]. - The market for bank convertible bonds is shrinking, with the total balance dropping from nearly 300 billion yuan to below 150 billion yuan, and market share decreasing from 40% to approximately 20% [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics - The ongoing reduction in the supply of bank convertible bonds is altering market structure and triggering a shift in investment strategies, with institutional investors reducing their allocations to these bonds [6]. - As the supply of bank convertible bonds diminishes, funds are seeking alternative high-yield assets or other convertible bonds to fill the gap, leading to a divergence in allocation strategies among different types of funds [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent triggering of mandatory redemption for convertible bonds issued by Qilu Bank, highlighting the impact of rising bank stock prices on convertible bond mechanisms [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Qilu Bank Convertible Bond Redemption - On July 4, Qilu Bank's stock price closed at 6.52 yuan per share, triggering the mandatory redemption of its convertible bond "Qilu Convertible Bond" due to the stock price exceeding the redemption conversion condition for five consecutive trading days [1][2]. - The bond's conversion price was adjusted to 5.00 yuan per share, and the stock price had to be at least 130% of this conversion price for the redemption to be triggered [2][4]. Stock Performance and Redemption Mechanism - Qilu Bank's stock has seen a significant increase of 22.08% year-to-date, which directly contributed to the triggering of the mandatory redemption mechanism for the convertible bonds [3][4]. - The bank's board approved the early redemption of the "Qilu Convertible Bond," with the redemption price set at 100.4932 yuan per bond, and the redemption date scheduled for July 7 [1][4]. Market Context and Trends - The article notes that several banks, including Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank, have also triggered mandatory redemptions of their convertible bonds, with a total issuance amount of 480 billion yuan involved [11]. - The trend of mandatory redemptions is attributed to the overall rise in A-share bank stocks since September of the previous year [11][12]. Capital Supplementation - Convertible bonds are seen as a favorable tool for banks to supplement their core Tier 1 capital, especially when stock prices are low [15]. - The article emphasizes that successful conversion of these bonds into equity is crucial for banks to count them towards their core capital, otherwise, they must repay the principal and interest at maturity [8][15].

Group 1 - The A-share banking sector has transitioned from being the "most resilient" to the "most profitable," with a year-to-date increase of over 13% despite a recent drop of 3% [1][3] - The China Securities Banking Index has surpassed 8000 points for the first time since 2007, with the total market capitalization of A-share banks exceeding 10 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 1.54 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3] - Nearly 30 banking stocks have risen over 10%, with 10 stocks increasing over 20%, and some like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank seeing gains over 30% [3] Group 2 - The strong performance of bank stocks has triggered a wave of "strong redemption" for convertible bonds, with several banks indicating potential redemptions due to rising stock prices [3] - The A/H share premium for banks has narrowed to 25%, a decrease of 35 percentage points since the beginning of the year, indicating improved performance in Hong Kong-listed bank stocks [3] - High dividend yields have become a significant support for bank stocks, with the median dividend yield for A-share banks exceeding 4% as of June 30, leading to discussions about the attractiveness of bank stocks over traditional savings [3] Group 3 - Institutional buying has contributed to the rise in bank stocks, with insurance companies making significant investments in the sector, and regulatory changes potentially favoring equity funds towards large-cap stocks [4] - Despite recent declines in bank stocks, there is a belief that long-term investment value remains, supported by stable fundamentals and high dividend yields [4] - Analysts caution against irrational speculation, highlighting risks such as narrowing net interest margins and rising retail non-performing loans, suggesting a focus on profitability and stability when selecting stocks [4]

Core Viewpoint - Several banks' convertible bonds are approaching forced redemption due to rising stock prices, leading to a significant reduction in the market size of bank convertible bonds [2][3][9] Group 1: Convertible Bond Redemption - Qilu Bank announced that its convertible bond is expected to meet redemption conditions due to a surge in stock price, potentially making it the fourth bank bond to be redeemed this year [2] - The stock price of Qilu Bank has been above 130% of the conversion price for 10 out of the last 15 trading days, which could trigger the redemption clause if the trend continues [3] - Nanjing Bank and Hangzhou Bank have also announced early redemption of their convertible bonds, with specific dates for the last trading and conversion days [4][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Supply Dynamics - The total outstanding amount of bank convertible bonds has decreased significantly from nearly 300 billion to approximately 150 billion, with market share dropping from 38.97% to about 22.64% [9] - The supply of new convertible bonds has been constrained due to regulatory scrutiny and the long-term undervaluation of bank stocks, leading to a scarcity of existing bonds [9] - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, reducing exposure to bank convertible bonds while seeking alternative high-yield assets [9] Group 3: Performance and Investor Behavior - The strong performance of bank stocks has been a key driver for the forced redemption of convertible bonds, as rising stock prices enhance the conversion value [8] - The market for bank convertible bonds is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with fewer new issues leading to increased valuations for existing bonds [8] - As several convertible bonds approach redemption, the overall market size is expected to shrink further, impacting investment strategies [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent increase in the holdings of SPDB convertible bonds by Xinda Investment, drawing parallels to the "Everbright model" where a significant shareholder increased their stake before bond maturity, leading to a successful conversion into equity [1][3][10]. Group 1: SPDB Convertible Bonds - As of June 25, Xinda Securities managed to accumulate nearly 118 million SPDB convertible bonds, representing 23.57% of the total issuance [2][7]. - The SPDB convertible bonds were issued in October 2019 with a total amount of 50 billion yuan and are set to mature in four months [2][4]. - By the end of March, only 144,000 yuan worth of SPDB convertible bonds had been converted into common stock, indicating a conversion rate of 0.0029% [5]. Group 2: Comparison with Everbright Bank - The article highlights a similar case with Everbright Bank, where China Huarong increased its holdings of Everbright convertible bonds before their maturity, leading to a significant conversion into equity [3][10]. - Following the conversion, China Huarong became the second-largest shareholder of Everbright Bank, which alleviated the repayment pressure of the bonds and strengthened the bank's core capital [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Trends - The article notes that the recent performance of the banking sector has led to several banks triggering strong redemption and conversion of their convertible bonds, with a total issuance of 48 billion yuan involved [16]. - The SPDB convertible bonds are nearing maturity, with only four months left, while other banks are also close to triggering strong redemption conditions [20]. - The issuance of new convertible bonds has stagnated since 2023 due to the long-standing undervaluation of bank stocks, impacting the willingness of banks to issue new bonds [26].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a strong performance, leading to an accelerated conversion of convertible bonds into stocks this year, with several banks triggering redemption clauses for their convertible bonds [2][7]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Redemption - Qilu Bank announced that its stock price has been above 130% of the current conversion price for 10 out of the last 15 trading days, which may trigger the redemption clause for its convertible bonds [4]. - If Qilu Bank's stock price remains above 6.50 CNY (130% of the adjusted conversion price of 5.00 CNY) for 5 more trading days, the bank has the right to redeem the bonds at face value plus accrued interest [4][5]. - This year, five convertible bonds from various banks have exited the market due to triggering redemption clauses, including those from Suhang Bank, Chengyin Bank, Hangyin Bank, and Nanyin Bank [8]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The continuous rise in bank stock prices has led to a significant reduction in the outstanding balance of Qilu convertible bonds, which currently stands at 60.87 billion CNY, with an unconverted ratio of 76.09% [4]. - The trend of convertible bonds exiting the market is expected to continue, with only seven remaining if Qilu's bonds are redeemed [8]. - Approximately 100 billion CNY of bank convertible bonds are anticipated to complete conversion this year due to rising stock prices [8]. Group 3: Capital Supplementation and Market Dynamics - Convertible bonds serve as a crucial tool for banks to supplement their core Tier 1 capital, with a strong incentive for banks to convert bonds into stocks to enhance capital adequacy [2][11]. - The adjustment of conversion prices, such as Qilu Bank's reduction from 5.14 CNY to 5.00 CNY, increases the likelihood of triggering redemption clauses [9]. - The acceleration of bond conversions, combined with a slow pace of new bond approvals and issuances, may lead to irrational price increases for remaining high-quality convertible bonds in the market [11].