对话嘉宾 罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩 美国库恩基金会主席 张宇燕 中国社会科学院学部委员 翁诗杰 马来西亚亚太"一带一路"共策会会长 陈凤英 中国现代国际关系研究院研究员 马哈茂德·乌尔·哈桑·汗 巴基斯坦南亚与国际研究中心主任 刘元春 上海财经大学校长 亚西鲁·拉纳拉贾 斯里兰卡国际问题专家 山东港口青岛港。张进刚摄（新华社发） 图为2025年6月，外国嘉宾在世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（2025夏季达沃斯论坛）现场交流讨 论。 新华社记者 李然摄 图为今年5月，带着行李箱的外国客商在浙江义乌国际商贸城准备采购样品。 新华社记者 陈朔摄 人类经济社会的每一次前行，总是在困境中探寻机遇、在动荡中找寻平衡。 即将过去的2025年，世界经济在缓慢复苏、温和增长与高度不确定性交织的发展进程中，展现出难能可 贵的韧性。面对地缘冲突持续、全球供应链产业链遭到冲击等困难与挑战，全球科技创新催生发展新动 能，全球绿色转型步伐不断加快，全球南方国家进一步深化南南合作，为世界经济注入稳定性和正能 量。 更令人欣喜的是，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活 力，成为世界经济的"稳定锚"。 图为2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is reviewing the suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, aiming to achieve significant breakthroughs in strategic tasks related to Chinese-style modernization over the next five years [1] Economic Growth and Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's GDP has consistently crossed significant thresholds, reaching approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2023, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [2][3] - China's GDP is projected to reach about 135 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining a 17.1% share of the global economy, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than the global average of 3.9% [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are expected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a forecast to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand has become a major driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, with final consumption expenditure contributing 59.9% [3][5] - The government has implemented strategies to boost consumption, including tax deductions for childcare and education, and plans to issue long-term special bonds to fund major projects [5] Innovation and Technology - China's R&D expenditure is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 48% increase since 2020, with enterprises accounting for over 77% of this investment [9] - The country aims to transition from a "catch-up" approach to a "leading" position in technology innovation by 2035, focusing on building a self-controlled system for research and industrialization [13] Social Welfare and Employment - The government has prioritized employment, maintaining over 12 million new urban jobs annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average urban unemployment rate of 5.3% [15] - By 2024, the per capita disposable income of residents is expected to reach 41,000 yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.5% after adjusting for inflation [15] Education and Healthcare - Education spending has consistently remained above 4% of GDP, with significant improvements in enrollment rates across various education levels [16] - By the end of 2024, the number of medical institutions in China is expected to reach 1.09 million, with over 95% of residents able to access medical services within 15 minutes [17]

Economic Growth - China's GDP is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2023, up from 103 trillion yuan in 2020, achieving an increment of over 35 trillion yuan in five years, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta [1] - The average annual economic growth rate is 5.5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [1] Innovation and Technology - Research and development investment intensity is expected to increase to 2.68% in 2024, surpassing the overall level of the European Union [1] - Significant technological achievements include the successful commercial flight of the C919 aircraft and advancements in human-like robots and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has increased by 4 trillion yuan, driven by enhanced confidence from government initiatives such as childcare subsidies and pension increases [2] - New consumption trends are emerging in areas like sports tourism and cultural experiences, reflecting a shift in consumer willingness to spend [2] Renewable Energy and Green Transition - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with total electricity consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours [2] - The country leads globally in the ownership, production, and charging infrastructure of electric vehicles [2] Global Trade and Cultural Influence - China's total goods trade has exceeded 40 trillion yuan, showcasing an expanding global trade network [2] - Chinese cultural products, such as the animated film "Nezha," have achieved significant international success, indicating a growing global cultural influence [2][3] Investment Sentiment - Several international investment banks have upgraded their ratings on Chinese assets to "overweight," leading to increased foreign capital inflow into China [3] - The ongoing economic momentum is viewed as a starting point for future growth, with expectations for continued positive developments in the upcoming five-year plan [3]

Group 1 - Trump's recent ultimatum to 17 global pharmaceutical companies demands significant reductions in drug prices in the U.S. within 60 days, causing market volatility [1] - The policy aims to implement a "most favored nation" mechanism, requiring European and other countries to increase drug payments while the U.S. lowers its payments, potentially stabilizing total revenue for pharmaceutical companies and encouraging them to enhance R&D efficiency [1] - The true target of Trump's policy is not the pharmaceutical companies themselves, but the insurance and pharmacy benefit management (PBM) sectors, aiming to eliminate intermediaries to reduce drug prices at the consumer level [1] Group 2 - Current domestic companies primarily utilize the out-licensing (BD) model for international expansion, which is relatively insulated from U.S. drug price policy changes [2] - Even with potential structural adjustments in U.S. drug pricing, the long-term trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global remains unchanged [2] - Investors are advised to seize short-term pullback opportunities for strategic investments in innovative pharmaceuticals, focusing on companies with differentiated innovation capabilities and established international experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher, driven by gains in large technology and pharmaceutical stocks, with significant increases in various individual stocks and a notable rise in the Hong Kong Technology ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (159747) rose by 2.70%, with a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1] - Notable individual stock performances include King’s Ray Biotechnology up over 15%, MicroPort Medical up over 8%, and Kintor Pharmaceutical, among others, also showing strong gains [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The U.S. is reportedly "buying" Chinese innovative drugs amid tariff concerns, with a significant increase in licensing agreements from multinational pharmaceutical companies recognizing Chinese biotech [1] - According to Stifel's report, approximately 30% of drugs licensed by large pharmaceutical companies in 2023 and 2024 will come from Chinese biotech firms, up from 12% in the previous two years [1] Group 3: Financial Trends in Innovative Drugs - The total value of innovative drug business development (BD) transactions is projected to rise from $9.2 billion in 2020 to $52.3 billion in 2024, with upfront payments increasing from $600 million to $4.1 billion [1] - From early 2025 to the present, the total value of innovative drug overseas transactions has reached $45.5 billion, with upfront payments hitting $2.2 billion, indicating a potential record year [1] Group 4: Technology Sector Outlook - Hong Kong stocks are expected to benefit from the scarcity of leading technology stocks amid the AI industry transformation, with strong growth in capital expenditure and cloud business revenue among leading internet companies [1] - The current valuation levels of Hong Kong technology stocks are considered not high, with strong earnings growth expected in the sector by 2025, suggesting potential improvements in return on equity (ROE) and subsequent valuation increases [1]