The IMF's Kristalina Georgieva sees "exceptionally high†uncertainly persisting. Here's her advice for nations navigating tricky economies. ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant challenges due to the impact of tariff wars, particularly from the United States, which is weakening growth momentum and creating uncertainty in international trade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Developed Economies - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth affected by tariff policies, leading to a contraction in Q1 and a modest growth of 1.4% in personal consumption expenditures in Q2 [2][3]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth in Q2 was only 0.1%, the lowest since early 2024, with major economies like Germany and Italy facing export challenges [3]. - Japan has revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down to 0.7% from 1.2%, primarily due to the effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, tariff wars, and rising macroeconomic risks, with the U.S. being identified as a major source of risk [5][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that U.S. trade policies contribute to ongoing uncertainty and fragility in the global economy [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience in Emerging Markets - Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are showing resilience and are becoming key drivers of global growth, with significant trade growth observed in developing countries [4][8]. - The global South is increasingly important in maintaining and enhancing multilateral trade systems, with countries like China demonstrating strong economic growth and potential [7][8]. Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - U.S. tariffs are expected to lead to significant costs for American businesses, with estimates suggesting hundreds of billions in direct costs, affecting pricing and employment [6]. - The uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs is damaging global supply chains and reducing the attractiveness of the U.S. market for global capital [6]. Group 5: Cooperation and Trade Diversification - Countries are focusing on deepening cooperation to enhance economic resilience, with initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) being pursued in response to high tariffs [7]. - The IMF emphasizes the importance of practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [7].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has established an oil security system that holds over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stock, which has proven crucial for protecting the global economy [1] Group 1 - The IEA's emergency stockpile is significant for maintaining oil supply stability [1] - The oil security system is a key component in safeguarding the world economy from potential disruptions [1]

金十数据5月5日讯，机构分析指出，美国总统特朗普的关税日益阻碍着世界经济的运转，而几十年来， 世界经济一直受到可预测且相对自由的贸易的推动。从知名跨国企业到小众电商业者，上周都纷纷下调 销售目标、警告将裁员，并重新审视其业务计划。同时，多个主要经济体也因经济数据低迷而下调成长 预期。法国巴黎银行集团首席经济学家Isabelle Mateosy Lago表示，"美国关税政策短期内将对世界造成 严重的负面冲击。"她指出，目前美国的关税大多设定在10%的基线水平，另有针对钢铁、铝、汽车等 产品的更高特定关税，而这场关税政策的"最终战"可能比预期更遥远、代价更高。 特朗普关税药帖副作用：全球经济消化不良 ...

Group 1 - The UK Chancellor Reeves stated that US tariffs have a "huge impact" on the global economy [1] - The market is operating "effectively" and the banking sector is described as "resilient" [1] - The UK will not remain passive but will take decisive action [1] Group 2 - There is a necessity for pragmatism in pursuing the best deal with the US [1] - Discussions have been held with counterparts from Canada, Ireland, France, and other countries [1]