从欧美到东南亚，中国创新药出海的下一个风口在哪 20251123 当前全球市场波动对 A 股市场产生了一定影响。例如，美股近期波动较大，高 开低走，引发日韩科技股下跌，日经 225 指数跌幅达 2%以上，韩国指数接近 4%。这种全球共振效应也传导至 A 股市场，引发调整。背后的原因包括 12 月 份美联储降息预期降低，以及市场流动性挑战。此外，比特币价格连续下跌也 反映出全球风险偏好降低。 尽管短期内存在调整压力，但整体来看，今年 （2025 年）以来全球权益市场表现良好，多因素推动如降息预期、美元走弱 等。然而短期逻辑变化可能导致指数调整，但长期来看，我们认为 A 股底层逻 辑未变，包括科技引领、深周期接力以及居民财富向权益市场转移等趋势依然 存在。因此，我们认为当前仍处于牛市通道中，只是短期震荡加剧，不会改变 长期上涨趋势。 摘要 中国医药板块在深度调整后企稳反转，呈现结构性增长，以泽布替尼、 伏美替尼为代表的国产创新药在北美市场销量突破，驱动生物制药板块 盈利，标志着中国医药产业从仿制向创新升级。 中国创新药或新分子的全球贡献率自 2015 年持续上升，预计 2025 年 达到质变阶段，涌现 best ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of China's biopharmaceutical sector is prompting multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) to adjust their strategies, focusing on increasing investment in the Chinese market and accelerating the introduction of global innovative products into China [1][2] - MNCs are adopting a dual strategy of enhancing local market engagement while leveraging Chinese innovations to expand globally, as highlighted by GSK and Kelsey Group's approaches [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment and Collaboration - The top 20 MNCs have steadily increased the number and value of assets introduced from China since 2021, with a total of $39.4 billion in innovative drug assets introduced in the first eight months of 2025, accounting for 37.4% of global transaction totals [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total amount for Chinese license-out transactions reached $92.03 billion, indicating a vibrant BD transaction environment for domestic innovative drugs [2] - GSK's strategic partnership with Heng Rui Pharmaceutical involves the joint development of up to 12 innovative drugs, with GSK committing a total of $500 million in upfront payments and potential milestone payments of approximately $12 billion [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth - Kelsey Group's strategy includes three pillars: China to China, Global to China, and China to Global, emphasizing increased investment in the Chinese market and the integration of Chinese innovations into its global system [1][2] - Kelsey Group's recent collaboration with Haisco on the innovative drug HSK31858 represents a significant step in bringing Chinese innovations to global markets, particularly in treating chronic airway diseases [3] - The Chinese market is becoming a key growth engine for GSK, with expectations that approximately 18 new products and indications will be approved in China over the next three years [9] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - MNCs are increasingly focusing on enhancing their R&D presence in China, with Kelsey Group planning to increase its R&D personnel and strengthen its engagement with the local innovation ecosystem [4][6] - Boehringer Ingelheim's strategy includes a planned investment of over 5 billion RMB in R&D in China over the next five years, focusing on areas such as metabolism, inflammation, eye health, and oncology [8] - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) is recognized as a vital platform for MNCs to showcase innovations and deepen collaborations, with Boehringer Ingelheim highlighting its commitment to open innovation through this event [7][8]

Group 1 - Pfizer officially launched two global multi-center phase III clinical trials for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody (code: 707) developed by 3SBio, targeting first-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer, designed as a "head-to-head" challenge against current standard therapies (Keytruda and Bevacizumab) [1] - This event signifies a critical advancement in the model of Chinese innovative drugs going global, shifting from "license-out" to being led and heavily invested in by global multinational corporations (MNCs) for late-stage global development [1] - Pfizer's decision to rapidly advance clinical trials and design them as high-standard "head-to-head" tests serves as a strong endorsement of 3SBio's original innovation capabilities and the potential of the 707 molecule, indicating that the value of Chinese innovative drugs has progressed from "early potential" to being recognized as having "disruptive global market potential" [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (589720) focuses on innovative drug companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, tracking a representative index of 30 high-quality companies, primarily in high-growth biotech, with a 20% limit on price fluctuations to better align with sector volatility [2] - Since the "924 market" rally, the Sci-Tech Innovation Drug Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug Index, with respective gains of 117.04% and 109.62% during the market rebound from September 24, 2024, to September 30, 2025 [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Drug Index may help capture the resilience of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board when market risk appetite rebounds [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of investment rhythms in the CDMO sector over the past decade, highlighting significant changes from initial industry transfers from overseas to China, to shifts in focus from small molecules to larger molecules and new types like peptides and ADCs [17]. - The report emphasizes that the innovation drug sector is entering a new bull market, driven by the potential for significant breakthroughs and the need for companies to adapt to changing market dynamics [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - During the week of October 20-24, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index increased by 0.58%, underperforming compared to the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300 Index [10]. - The overall market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, led by technology stocks, while the pharmaceutical sector experienced volatility [10][11]. 2. Recent Review - The report notes that the innovation drug sector has seen limited performance despite recent business development (BD) activities and data releases, attributing this to the digestion of previous trading volumes rather than fundamental industry issues [11]. - The report anticipates that after a period of consolidation, the innovation drug sector may see a resurgence driven by significant catalysts, with a focus on disruptive innovations rather than mere revaluation [11][12]. 3. Future Outlook - The report outlines a two-pronged strategy for the pharmaceutical sector: focusing on companies with strong Q3 earnings and deepening investments in innovative drugs in preparation for potential rebounds in Q4 and Q1 [12]. - Key investment themes include overseas large pharmaceuticals, small and mid-cap technology revolutions, and the integration of new technologies such as AI in healthcare [12][13]. 4. Strategic Allocation - The report provides a detailed list of recommended companies across various segments, including innovative drugs, chronic disease treatments, and new technologies [13][15]. - Specific companies highlighted include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and WuXi AppTec, among others, indicating a diverse approach to investment within the pharmaceutical landscape [13][15]. 5. CDMO Market Insights - The report indicates that the CDMO market in China has grown significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.9%, expanding from 16 billion RMB in 2018 to 85.9 billion RMB in 2023 [25]. - It projects that the market will continue to grow, reaching 208.4 billion RMB by 2028 and 536.9 billion RMB by 2033, highlighting China's increasing share of the global CDMO market [25]. 6. Investment Strategies in Sub-sectors - The report categorizes investment strategies into several areas, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and new technologies, emphasizing the importance of selecting companies that align with emerging trends and market demands [47][48]. - It also notes the significance of focusing on companies that have established strong partnerships with multinational corporations (MNCs) and have developed scalable production capabilities in high-demand areas like ADCs and peptides [45][46].

Core Insights - Chinese innovative drugs are experiencing a surge in international expansion, with significant achievements at global conferences highlighting their growing influence in the oncology field [1][4][10] Group 1: International Recognition and Achievements - At the recent ESMO annual meeting, Chinese researchers led 23 studies selected for "breakthrough abstracts," marking a historical high, along with 3 major results presented at the "presidential forum" [1] - The first self-developed anti-cancer drug from China was approved for sale in the U.S. in 2019, marking a pivotal moment for Chinese innovative drugs in the global market [4] - Over 20 domestic innovative drugs have been launched overseas, with notable approvals such as Diligent Pharma's drug, Shuwozhe, receiving accelerated approval from the FDA [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The number of authorized transactions for Chinese innovative drugs has surged, with total authorization amounts exceeding $100 billion in 2023, a historic first for a single year [7][9] - The clinical trial landscape in China is rapidly evolving, with new drug trials accounting for 30% of the global total, up from just 1% a decade ago, and China leading in oncology trial initiations [8] Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the progress, many Chinese companies are still in the "borrow a boat to go to sea" phase, lacking experience in conducting international clinical trials [10] - The path to true internationalization remains challenging, with companies needing to strengthen their domestic market presence while exploring opportunities beyond the U.S. market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical aims to accelerate the development of Innovent's next-generation IO and ADC therapies, with a total deal value potentially reaching $11.4 billion [1][2]. Company Summary - Innovent Biologics has entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical to co-develop IBI363, IBI343, and IBI3001, with Takeda leading the development efforts outside Greater China and the U.S. [1] - Innovent will receive an upfront payment of $1.2 billion, including a $100 million strategic equity investment, and has the potential to earn up to $10.2 billion in milestone payments [2]. - The company has 16 approved products, including 12 oncology products and 4 in other therapeutic areas, reflecting its focus on innovative drug development [2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Innovent reported revenues of 5.953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.6%, and a profit of 834 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [3]. - The revenue breakdown shows 5.234 billion yuan from pharmaceutical sales, 666 million yuan from licensing fees (up 4.7 times), and 54 million yuan from R&D service fees [3]. Industry Context - The $11.4 billion deal highlights the ongoing trend of Chinese innovative drugs entering global markets, with total contract values exceeding $100 billion in the first three quarters of the year, a 170% increase year-on-year [4]. - The industry is witnessing a surge in license-out transactions, with 135 deals reported from January 1 to October 17, 2025, totaling approximately $10.3 billion [4].

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a golden moment, with significant advancements in global market presence and product approvals [1][2] - The number of innovative drugs in development in China is projected to reach 704 by 2024, making it the global leader in this area [3] - The trend of high-value business development (BD) transactions indicates a shift in international perception of Chinese pharmaceutical capabilities [2][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese innovative drugs are increasingly recognized on the global stage, with major international investments and partnerships emerging [2][4] - The total value of License-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs reached nearly $66 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - The successful launch of products like fuquintinib in over 30 countries demonstrates the growing competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - A significant number of Chinese innovative drug companies are reporting profitability, with 75 out of 157 A-share companies being profitable [5] - The revenue from innovative products is becoming a key driver for profitability, as seen with companies like BeiGene, which reported a 45.8% increase in product revenue [5] - The strategic focus on long-term innovation and global collaboration is yielding positive financial results for companies in the sector [5][6] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Companies are moving away from one-time BD transactions towards building sustainable capabilities for ongoing development and commercialization [7] - The decision by companies like Hutchison China MediTech to divest non-core assets reflects a commitment to strengthening their innovative drug pipeline [7] - The emphasis on core business focus and deepening source innovation is seen as essential for future growth in the competitive global market [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is encouraged to transition from "borrowing boats to go to sea" to "building boats to go to sea," indicating a need for self-sufficiency and innovation [8][9] - Overcoming barriers related to funding, global teams, and drug development capabilities is crucial for the success of Chinese innovative drug companies [8] - The aspiration remains for a cohort of Chinese innovative drug companies to emerge as global pharmaceutical giants in the future [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry** and its growing collaboration with **multinational corporations (MNCs)** due to the impending patent cliffs faced by these companies [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - MNCs are facing significant patent cliffs, with companies like **BMS** potentially losing up to **69%** of their revenue and **Merck** facing a **63%** patent cliff in the next five years, prompting them to seek partnerships with Chinese innovative drug companies [2][4]. - The quality of clinical data from Chinese innovative drug companies has significantly improved, gaining international recognition. For instance, at the **2025 ASCO conference**, Chinese LBA accounted for **20%** of the total, with **73** presentations, indicating a rise in academic standing [1][4][6]. - The oncology sector is shifting from PD-1 combined with chemotherapy to next-generation immuno-oncology (I/O) therapies and next-generation antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). MNCs are focusing on these next-generation therapies, with potential buyers including **AstraZeneca**, **Pfizer**, and **Merck** [1][2][3][7]. - In the metabolic disease area, the focus is moving from merely weight loss to comprehensive management, including GLP-1 therapies and oral GLP-1 options. Recent data from **Eli Lilly** and **Amgen** show promising results for their calcitonin selective agonist, which has a safety profile comparable to GLP-1 [1][10]. - The autoimmune disease sector is seeing new targets like **STAR6** and innovations in engineering such as dual-antibody TCE Protect, with leading companies like **AbbVie**, **Johnson & Johnson**, and **Sanofi** continuing to invest in this area [1][11]. Additional Important Insights - The total upfront payment for Chinese innovative drug companies' business development (BD) in the first half of **2025** exceeded **$5 billion**, with total transaction amounts surpassing **$60 billion**, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2][3][6]. - The Chinese innovative drug sector's share of global first-in-class drugs has increased from single digits to **19%**, showcasing its competitive edge on the international stage [6][19]. - MNCs are exploring various strategies to cope with patent cliffs, including focusing on core areas, entering new fields like metabolic weight loss, and leveraging new technologies such as small nucleic acids and molecular glue [2][5]. - The oncology landscape is expected to see significant developments with new data releases from various companies, including PD-1, VEGFR, and others, indicating a continuous advancement in innovative drug capabilities [18][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry and its collaboration with multinational corporations amidst evolving market conditions.

Core Insights - In 2025, Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies lacking funds but possessing pipelines are aligning with multinational pharmaceutical companies that have funds but lack pipelines, leading to significant licensing deals [1] - A historic moment for China's biopharmaceutical industry occurred in May 2025 when 3SBio announced a deal with Pfizer worth over $6 billion, setting a record for Chinese innovative drugs going overseas [1][3] - The surge in License-out transactions, particularly in the Antibody-Drug Conjugate (ADC) sector, indicates a growing trend of Chinese companies seeking international partnerships [1][3] Industry Trends - The ADC market in China is transitioning from "fast-following" to "best-in-class" and even "first-in-class" innovations, with a notable increase in the number of ADC projects [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, the global pharmaceutical transaction volume reached 456 deals, a 32% year-on-year increase, with China contributing nearly 50% of the total transaction value [3] - The number of innovative drug pipelines in China surged from hundreds in 2015 to 3,575 in 2024, marking a significant increase in First-in-Class drugs [3] Market Dynamics - The capital environment is shifting, with License-out transactions becoming a crucial funding source for biotech companies facing a financing winter [3][10] - Multinational pharmaceutical companies are urgently seeking external innovations to replenish their pipelines due to impending patent expirations affecting over $200 billion in market size by 2030 [3][10] - The trend of "early-stage project licensing" is prominent, with nearly 70% of License-out projects being in preclinical to Phase I stages, particularly in the ADC sector [6][8] Competitive Advantages - Chinese companies possess traditional advantages in chemistry and strong execution capabilities, allowing them to rapidly advance clinical trials and obtain data [4][10] - The combination of innovative approaches and engineering design in ADC development aligns well with the cultural and operational characteristics of Chinese enterprises [4] - The increasing recognition of Chinese companies' R&D capabilities by multinational firms is leading to greater willingness to invest in early-stage projects [7][8] Future Opportunities - Emerging targets like CDH17 and B7H3 are expected to become significant growth areas in the ADC market, with several companies already pursuing these targets [11][13] - The potential for antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other conjugates (XDCs) to drive future growth is recognized, with a focus on innovative payloads and mechanisms [5][12] - The trend of expanding product portfolios to include earlier-stage projects reflects a strategic shift among multinational companies to ensure a continuous flow of new products [8][9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, government stimulus plans, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global asset prices and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Potential Government Stimulus**: The Chinese government is expected to introduce a supplementary stimulus plan ranging from 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB to address economic downturns, with implementation anticipated by late September or October [3][5][24]. 2. **Focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan**: The plan will emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, promoting high-quality development, enhancing the national unified market, and advancing new productive forces to combat deflation and achieve a virtuous economic cycle [5][24]. 3. **Real Estate Market Intervention**: The central government may intervene by purchasing unsold residential properties to convert them into affordable housing, which would help clear inventory and improve living conditions for urban workers [7][11]. 4. **Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected to increase global liquidity, raise asset prices, and potentially alter capital flows, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation strategies by investors [8][14]. 5. **Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The market for Chinese innovative drugs abroad, particularly in Hong Kong, shows significant potential, although current valuations and growth prospects require careful assessment [9][40]. 6. **Social Security Reform**: Enhancing social security and increasing state-owned enterprise dividend payouts are seen as crucial for improving consumer sentiment and stimulating domestic demand [5][13][24]. 7. **Stock Market Recovery**: The Chinese stock market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement, with a positive impact on earnings expectations, which is crucial for sustainable market performance [26][36]. 8. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: High household savings rates in China, driven by inadequate social security, could be reduced through comprehensive reforms, potentially releasing significant consumer spending power [16][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Expectations**: There has been limited progress in restoring inflation expectations, with concerns about overcapacity in certain sectors and insufficient demand-side stimulus [22][24]. 2. **Global Chemical Industry Dynamics**: The chemical sector is experiencing changes due to anti-involution policies, which may affect global supply-demand relationships and pricing [42][44]. 3. **Investment Opportunities in Chemicals**: The chemical industry has seen a 10% average increase in stock prices since the introduction of anti-involution policies, indicating potential investment opportunities [49]. 4. **Long-term Economic Reforms**: The success of the 15th Five-Year Plan in implementing social security and fiscal reforms could lead to a gradual exit from deflation starting in 2027 [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the anticipated government actions, market dynamics, and broader economic implications.