每经记者｜付克友 每经编辑｜何小桃 杨军 春节的烟火散去，汽车市场却遇冷。 中国汽车流通协会的数据证实了这种"体感"：76.8%的经销商反馈2月销量未达预期。多家车企选择沉默，延迟发布销量数据，这在以往并不多见。 但冷清之中，藏着两个意味深长的"异类"：吉利稳住了20万辆大关；比亚迪的海外销量首次超过国内。 这两个"异类"透露出2026年初我国车市的真实底色，即一边是淘汰赛的残酷厮杀，一边是全球化的开疆拓土。分化，从未如此鲜明。 少数玩家公布"成绩单"，更多品牌选择沉默，这本身就是一种信号。 吉利能稳住20万辆，靠的不是运气，而是靠极氪和领克两款车型的爆发。极氪同比增长70%，领克同比增长59%，加上燃油车板块中国星系列的8万多辆 支撑，吉利向外界展示了"多条腿走路"的抗风险能力。 那些"沉默的大多数"呢？它们或许正在经历长安汽车总裁赵非所说的"淘汰赛"——竞争只会更加残酷，问题却并不会随着新年的到来而自动消失。对它们 来说，这又是一个令人不安的信号。头部企业开始公布海外销量首次超越国内的时候，许多品牌还在为如何消化库存而焦头烂额。 比亚迪完成了"历史性一跃"：2月海外销量超10万辆，同比增长41.4%，首次 ...

中国汽车流通协会的数据证实了这种"体感"：76.8%的经销商反馈2月销量未达预期。多家车企选择沉 默，延迟发布销量数据，这在以往并不多见。 但冷清之中，藏着两个意味深长的"异类"：吉利稳住了20万辆大关；比亚迪（002594）的海外销量首次 超过国内。 这两个"异类"透露出2026年初我国车市的真实底色，即一边是淘汰赛的残酷厮杀，一边是全球化的开疆 拓土。分化，从未如此鲜明。 少数玩家公布"成绩单"，更多品牌选择沉默，这本身就是一种信号。 吉利能稳住20万辆，靠的不是运气，而是靠极氪和领克两款车型的爆发。极氪同比增长70%，领克同比 增长59%，加上燃油车板块中国星系列的8万多辆支撑，吉利向外界展示了"多条腿走路"的抗风险能 力。 春节的烟火散去，汽车市场却遇冷。 更重要的是，这标志着中国汽车行业的增长逻辑正在发生根本性变化。 过去我们谈"出海"，更多的是"产品输出"，把国内库存倒腾到海外；但现在，海外销量占比过半，意味 着企业必须在当地建立完整的销售、服务甚至生产体系。从"卖车"到"扎根"，这是质的飞跃。 就像一枚硬币的两面，一面是国内的"淘汰赛"，一面是全球化的"突围战"。 2月的数据清晰地表明，能够"走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant shift as sales decline across most brands, with Geely surpassing BYD in January sales, marking a pivotal moment in the market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Geely's January sales reached 270,200 units, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth and a 14% month-on-month increase [4]. - BYD's sales for January were reported at 210,000 units, indicating a competitive landscape where Geely has reclaimed its position as the leading domestic brand [1][4]. - Geely's sales structure showed a notable increase in its China Star series, which sold 134,448 units, up 86% month-on-month, and the high-end series surged by 160% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The automotive market is at a critical turning point after five years of rapid electrification, with the competition between new energy vehicles (NEVs) and fuel vehicles becoming more pronounced due to policy changes [1][9]. - The reduction of purchase tax incentives has led to a significant drop in the retail penetration rate of NEVs, falling from nearly 60% in December 2025 to approximately 44.4% in January 2026 [5][6]. - The new purchase tax policy, which shifted from full exemption to a 50% reduction, has increased the cost of NEVs, making them less competitive against fuel vehicles [6][9]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Geely's success in January is attributed to its dual strategy of maintaining both fuel and electric vehicle offerings, allowing for greater flexibility in the current market environment [3][4]. - The market is transitioning from a policy-driven growth model to one focused on value, where companies must enhance efficiency and innovation to survive [9][11]. - Industry experts predict a slowdown in NEV growth to around 8% for the year, down from 30% in the previous year, indicating a challenging environment ahead [11].

Summary of Geely Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles Key Financial Metrics - **Sales Volume**: 2.17 million units in the first three quarters, a 46% year-over-year increase, surpassing the industry average growth rate of 14% [2][4] - **Market Share**: Increased to 10.2% in 2025, up from 8% in 2024 [11] - **Revenue**: Q3 revenue reached 89.2 billion RMB, a 27% year-over-year increase; total revenue for the first three quarters was 239.5 billion RMB, up 26% [2][4] - **Core Net Profit**: 3.96 billion RMB in Q3, a 19% year-over-year increase; cumulative core net profit for the first nine months was 10.62 billion RMB, up 59% [2][4][7] - **Gross Profit**: Q3 gross profit was 14.8 billion RMB, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a stable gross margin of 16.6% [2][7] Electric Vehicle Performance - **EV Sales**: 1.168 million units sold in the first three quarters, a 114% year-over-year increase; Galaxy series sales increased by 206% [2][5] - **Battery Sales**: 443,000 units sold in Q3, a 15% increase, with a penetration rate of 58% [5] - **Export Growth**: Q3 exports totaled 112,000 units, a 19% increase; cumulative exports reached 296,000 units, with EV exports up 24,018% [6][20] Cost Control and Profitability - **Cost Management**: Sales expense ratio decreased to 5.7%, and R&D expense ratio fell to 6.1% [7][14] - **Profit Margins**: Core net profit margin improved to 4.4% from 4.1% [7] Future Plans and Market Strategy - **New Model Launches**: Plans to introduce multiple new models in Q4, including compact plug-in hybrids and upgraded versions of existing models [3][9] - **Sales Target**: Aiming for 3 million units sold in 2025 [3] - **Global Expansion**: Continued focus on global market penetration, with plans to increase distribution network from 890 to 1,000-1,200 dealers [21] Industry Outlook and Policy Impact - **2026 Policy Changes**: Anticipated to drive a more mature automotive market; Geely expects minimal impact on profits due to strategic adjustments and new model launches [10][18] - **Market Concentration**: Increased market concentration with the top five manufacturers' market share rising from 38% in 2023 to 47-48% in 2025 [17] Technological Advancements - **Autonomous Driving**: Focus on enhancing autonomous driving technology, particularly in high-definition mapping and driver assistance features [22] - **Electric and Hybrid Technology**: Plans to upgrade electric motor and control systems to version 3.0, enhancing efficiency and performance [26] Challenges and Risks - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with smaller players likely to exit the market [10][16] - **Supply Chain Coordination**: Ongoing efforts to ensure the supply of components for high-end models amidst industry challenges [24] Conclusion Geely Automobile is positioned for significant growth in the EV market, with strong sales performance, effective cost management, and a clear strategy for future model launches and global expansion. The company is optimistic about navigating upcoming policy changes and market challenges while continuing to innovate in technology and product offerings.

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile, forecasting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.49, 1.75, and 2.12 RMB respectively, with a target price of 22.35 RMB (24.51 HKD) based on a PE average of 15 times for comparable companies [1] Sales Performance - In October, Geely's total sales reached 307,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%, setting a new monthly sales record [2] - New energy vehicle sales for October were 177,900 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 63.6% and a month-on-month growth of 7.7% [2] - From January to October, total sales amounted to 2,477,300 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.3% [2] - The company is expected to outperform the industry average, with a strong likelihood of achieving its annual sales target of 3 million units [2] Brand Development - Geely's brand sales in October reached 245,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and a month-on-month increase of 10.6% [3] - The Galaxy brand achieved sales of 127,500 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 100.8% and surpassing its annual sales target of 1 million units ahead of schedule [3] - The launch of new models, such as the 2026 Geely Xingyuan and Galaxy Xingyao 6, is expected to enhance the product matrix and contribute to future sales growth [3] - Geely signed an agreement with Renault to acquire 26.4% of Renault's Brazilian operations, which will facilitate the introduction of new energy vehicles in Brazil [3] Lynk & Co Brand Performance - Lynk & Co's sales in October reached 40,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% and a month-on-month increase of 22.2% [4] - The brand's weighted average price exceeded 200,000 RMB, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 72.1% of total sales [4] - Key models such as Lynk & Co 900 and Lynk & Co 10EM-P have shown strong initial sales performance, indicating potential for future growth [4]