Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a narrow fluctuation trend, with the China Securities Commodity Index showing a slight annual increase of 0.20% and a volatility of 10.27% [1] Market Overview - The commodity market experienced increased volatility due to frequent macro events, with weak overall demand impacting industrial products more significantly than agricultural products [2] - Three major macro "black swan" events occurred in the first half of 2025, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, a global tariff storm, and conflicts in the Middle East, all contributing to market fluctuations [2] Performance Characteristics - There was a clear divergence between agricultural and industrial products, with agricultural prices being more stable and influenced by supply-side changes, while industrial prices were more sensitive to demand fluctuations [3] - Different types of events caused further differentiation within the commodity market, with industrial products reacting strongly to demand-side shocks while agricultural products remained relatively stable [3] Index Returns Attribution 1. **Term Structure Contribution** - The term structure yield for the first half of 2025 was 1.07%, showing a slight increase from 2024, indicating a potential improvement in global economic growth [6] 2. **Sector Contribution** - Agricultural products experienced slight price increases with lower volatility, while industrial products faced larger price declines and fluctuations, reflecting insufficient global demand [7] 3. **Product Contribution** - Precious metals and agricultural products contributed positively to returns, while black metals and energy chemicals generally contributed negatively [8] Macro Indicators 1. **Macro Level** - The China Securities Commodity Index serves as an important reference for macroeconomic conditions, showing a strong correlation with PPI, which may lead by about two months [9] 2. **Micro Level** - Sub-sector indices show a high correlation with the profit totals of corresponding industries, providing timely insights for business decision-making [12] Comparative Analysis - The China Securities Commodity Index demonstrates a clear advantage in terms of risk and return compared to major overseas commodity indices, making it an attractive option for domestic and international investors [18] - The correlation between the China Securities Commodity Index and major overseas indices is relatively low, indicating a unique positioning in the market [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities has successfully issued China's first American-style call shark fin structured product linked to the China Securities Commodity Futures Index (CCICFI), with initial subscriptions exceeding 300 million yuan, showcasing innovation in capital market services for the real economy [1][2] Group 1: Product Innovation and Collaboration - The collaboration between Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and the China Securities Index Company focuses on leveraging the index licensing and product development to create structured products that mitigate downside risks while allowing clients to capitalize on commodity futures market opportunities [2] - The CCICFI includes all commodity futures listed on domestic exchanges, assessing contract liquidity and the economic significance of the underlying commodities, thus establishing a comprehensive and authoritative commodity index series in China [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Commodity Futures - As the world's largest consumer of commodities, China's economy is closely linked to the commodity futures market, which plays a crucial role in risk management for enterprises, stabilizing production costs and ensuring supply chain stability [3] - The demand for commodity futures investment tools is increasing due to the optimization of economic structure and the rise of emerging industries, aligning with national industrial policy and driving long-term economic prosperity [3] Group 3: Future Directions and Commitment - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities aims to enhance its core competencies in index research, multi-category trading hedging, and structured product creation to meet diverse wealth management needs of investors with varying risk preferences [4] - The company is committed to providing innovative financial products and professional services, contributing to the construction of a strong financial nation and supporting high-quality development [4]