Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.753 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [1] - Profit for the same period was 58.71 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - The core brands, including Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiu Mao Jiu, are all facing performance declines [1] - Tai Er's revenue decreased by 13.3%, Song Hotpot's by 3.5%, and Jiu Mao Jiu's by 22.6% [1] Store Closures - The company closed 88 stores in the first half of the year, primarily due to expired lease agreements and unsatisfactory performance [1] - Tai Er brand saw the closure of 71 stores, marking the first contraction in its store count [1] Strategic Challenges - The multi-brand strategy of the company is facing challenges, as the sub-brands have not been able to sustain growth [1] - Same-store sales and table turnover rates have both declined, indicating ongoing weakness in individual store performance [1]

摩根士丹利将九毛九2025至27年每股盈利预测分别下调9%、6%及10%，主要反映年初至今需求弱于预 期。基于盈利预测下调，该行将目标价由2.3港元下调至2.1港元，续予"减持"评级。该行又预料公司股 价将于在未来30天内下跌，因恒指公司日前公布将于9月8日起把九毛九从恒生综合指数中剔除，意味着 该股将被移出港股通范围。截至8月22日，南下资金持有3.117亿股，占总股本22.3%及自由流通量 44.4%，预期调整将于短期内引发显著的沽售压力。 消息面上，九毛九近日发布2025年中期业绩，收入27.53亿元(人民币，下同)，同比下降10.1%；公司权 益股东应占溢利6069.1万元，同比下降16%。从同店销售数据来看，太二、怂火锅、九毛九三大主力品 牌的同店销售增长率分别为-19.0%、-20.1%和-19.8%。值得注意的是，今年上半年，公司净关闭了88家 门店，主要由于相关租赁协议于届满后终止，及部分餐厅的表现未如理想。 智通财经APP获悉，九毛九(09922)再跌超3%，截至发稿，跌3.33%，报2.61港元，成交额5715.87万港 元。 ...

消息面上，九毛九发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月业绩，收入27.53亿元(人民币，下同)，同比下降 10.1%；公司权益股东应占溢利6069.1万元，同比下降16%。从同店销售数据来看，太二、怂火锅、九 毛九三大主力品牌的同店销售增长率分别为-19.0%、-20.1%和-19.8%。值得注意的是，今年上半年，公 司净关闭了88家门店，主要由于相关租赁协议于届满后终止，及部分餐厅的表现未如理想。华泰证券认 为，考虑上半年同店仍存在一定压力，公司仍处于净关店状态，该行下调25-27年公司归母净利润 11%/1%/4%至1.32/2.52/3.10亿元，对应EPS分别为0.09/0.18/0.22元。 九毛九(09922)跌近6%，截至发稿，跌5.8%，报2.6港元，成交额8154.39万港元。 ...

消息面上，九毛九发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月业绩，收入27.53亿元(人民币，下同)，同比下降 10.1%；公司权益股东应占溢利6069.1万元，同比下降16%。从同店销售数据来看，太二、怂火锅、九 毛九三大主力品牌的同店销售增长率分别为-19.0%、-20.1%和-19.8%。值得注意的是，今年上半年，公 司净关闭了88家门店，主要由于相关租赁协议于届满后终止，及部分餐厅的表现未如理想。华泰证券认 为，考虑上半年同店仍存在一定压力，公司仍处于净关店状态，该行下调25-27年公司归母净利润 11%/1%/4%至1.32/2.52/3.10亿元，对应EPS分别为0.09/0.18/0.22元。 智通财经APP获悉，九毛九(09922)跌近6%，截至发稿，跌5.8%，报2.6港元，成交额8154.39万港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.79, indicating a potential decline of 3.1% from the current price of HKD 2.88 [2][17]. Core Insights - The company continues to face operational pressures in Q2, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The same-store sales for key brands have shown a decline, with the company adjusting its strategies to stabilize performance [6][19]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of improvement in the core brand's performance, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year as store adjustments take effect [6][19]. - The company has reduced its store count by 51 in Q2, primarily due to structural adjustments of underperforming locations, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency moving forward [6][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 5,615 million, reflecting a decrease of approximately 6.6% from previous estimates. Net profit forecasts have also been adjusted down to RMB 153 million for 2025, a reduction of 31.3% [5][7][19]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a significant drop in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, with a forecast of RMB 0.04, down from RMB 0.31 in 2023. The EPS is expected to recover gradually in subsequent years [5][19]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin of around 64.3% for 2025, although operating and net profit margins are projected to decline slightly [7][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to face operational pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, but a significant decline in core operating profit by 60.1% to 250 million yuan, and a net profit drop of 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan due to cost leverage effects [1][9]. - The core brand's same-store sales are under pressure, leading to a strategic focus on core brand development by selling off non-core brands [2][12]. - The company is actively adapting to market changes by introducing new store formats and maintaining a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% [3][24]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%. The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 558.1 million yuan, down 87.7% from the previous year [5][9]. - The core brand, Tai Er, generated revenue of 4.413 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, while the hot pot brand, Song, saw an increase of 11% in revenue to 895 million yuan [2][12]. - The company plans to optimize its store portfolio by closing underperforming locations, with a net closure of 39 stores in 2024 [2][12]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure shows rigidity, with raw material costs accounting for 35.6% of revenue, employee costs at 28.8%, and usage rights depreciation and rent at 11.7%, leading to a decline in profit margins [3][21]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 0.9%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs and impairment losses from store closures [3][21]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering the expected net profit to 216 million yuan and 295 million yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 355 million yuan [4][24]. - The company is focusing on a low-risk, light-asset model for new brand incubation, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4][26].